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Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

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Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#21

Post by rm999 »

It's fun to dig up old predictions of where we'd be today. Here's an article from 2002: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1176510

>Moore's Law scales to at least 9nm: technologist

>It'll be at least a human generation before Moore's Law begins to run out of gas at around the 9nm and even then it may thrive, TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12). Calvin Chenming Hu told an audience at the annual Semico Summit conference here that the 9nm node "can be ready more or less on time, in 2028 according to long-term forecasts or 2024 according to the 2002 (industry roadmap)."

Intel is off by 4-5 years according to their initial estimates (in 2011) of hitting 10nm, but they are 5-10 years ahead of where TSMC thought we would be 15+ years ago. TSMC was manufacturing at 10nm last year, incidentally (Qualcomm's Snapdragon 835).

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#22

Post by acchow »

rm999 wrote: post #21

It's fun to dig up old predictions of where we'd be today. Here's an article from 2002: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1176510 >Moore's Law scales to at least 9nm: technologist >It'll be at least a human generation before Moore's Law begins to run out of gas at around the 9nm and even then it may thrive, TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12). Calvin Chenming Hu told an audience at the annual…

Isn't comparing TSMC to Intel process nodes like comparing apples to oranges?

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#23

Post by bhouston »

thinkythought wrote: post #14
crunchlibrarian wrote: post #11

It's so strange how this is all playing out almost exactly like the Athlon XP days except with lots of cores and clouds.

Does anyone believe there's another core duo type massive leap out there to even be had this time around though? AMD is going to slowly pull a bit ahead of intel, especially in bang for buck, but i don't see how they can catch back up. As it is, last time intel jumped ahead it was by repackaging and souping up an a mobile arch that in and of itself was based on the old pentium 3 arch. They can't really mine the parts…

If Intel goes multi-chip in the same package like Ryzen, then yeah, they can get more cores in, similar to Ryzen Threadripper.

So there is a leap coming for Intel as well if they go that route, and after the massive success of Ryzen, they are likely going there. Just easier to scale core counts if you can use smaller dies and just use a lot of them with an interconnect fabric.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#24

Post by garmaine »

acchow wrote: post #22
rm999 wrote: post #21

It's fun to dig up old predictions of where we'd be today. Here's an article from 2002: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1176510 >Moore's Law scales to at least 9nm: technologist >It'll be at least a human generation before Moore's Law begins to run out of gas at around the 9nm and even then it may thrive, TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12). Calvin Chenming Hu told an audience at the annual…

Isn't comparing TSMC to Intel process nodes like comparing apples to oranges?

They both manufacture silicon gates.. what does it matter if the production infrastructure on top is different.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#25

Post by xenadu02 »

hinkley wrote: post #19
AceJohnny2 wrote: post #2

It used to be that Intel was undisputed king of the silicon race. It's kind of shocking that they've fallen so far behind. TSMC is already doing 7nm mass production right now: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180622PD204.html (arguably, what they call "7nm" isn't quite that, but still...)

The consensus the last time there was a delay was that TSMC's 7nm process is roughly comparable to Intel's 10nm process. They're still ahead, but only until Intel finally ships 10nm. I'm not sure how much this affects the industry in general, but I bet there are some interesting Intel vs Arm discussions being fueled in Apple's product roadmap meetings.

This is still a massive change. Intel used to be 1-2 generations ahead of everyone else. Now they're slightly behind.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#28

Post by xenadu02 »

bhouston wrote: post #23
thinkythought wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone believe there's another core duo type massive leap out there to even be had this time around though? AMD is going to slowly pull a bit ahead of intel, especially in bang for buck, but i don't see how they can catch back up. As it is, last time intel jumped ahead it was by repackaging and souping up an a mobile arch that in and of itself was based on the old pentium 3 arch. They can't really mine the parts…

If Intel goes multi-chip in the same package like Ryzen, then yeah, they can get more cores in, similar to Ryzen Threadripper. So there is a leap coming for Intel as well if they go that route, and after the massive success of Ryzen, they are likely going there. Just easier to scale core counts if you can use smaller dies and just use a lot of them with an interconnect fabric.

Intel had two advantages:

1. Relentless process improvement, putting them 1-2 generations ahead of everyone else.

2. Using their monopoly to prevent OEMs from shipping AMD processors.

#1 isn't true anymore.

#2 is almost irrelevant since mobile has taken over and makes the PC revolution look like child's play by comparison.

Intel doesn't have a good graphics story. They sell hot power-hungry chips. They no longer have a process advantage. Their monopoly in x86 is increasingly (but not yet completely) irrelevant.

I'm sure they can ride the x86 profitability horse for at least 5-10 years. What then? Remember: RIM was profitable for several years after the iPhone was released. That didn't save them. Microsoft continued to rake in cash with Windows/Office as iOS/Android/AWS/GC established a new world order that threatened to make them irrelevant.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#29

Post by rm999 »

acchow wrote: post #22
rm999 wrote: post #21

It's fun to dig up old predictions of where we'd be today. Here's an article from 2002: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1176510 >Moore's Law scales to at least 9nm: technologist >It'll be at least a human generation before Moore's Law begins to run out of gas at around the 9nm and even then it may thrive, TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12). Calvin Chenming Hu told an audience at the annual…

Isn't comparing TSMC to Intel process nodes like comparing apples to oranges?

Yeah they aren't quite comparable; I didn't want to dig into the complexities of that, which is why I followed the last thought with "incidentally".

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#30

Post by throwaway2048 »

hinkley wrote: post #19
AceJohnny2 wrote: post #2

It used to be that Intel was undisputed king of the silicon race. It's kind of shocking that they've fallen so far behind. TSMC is already doing 7nm mass production right now: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180622PD204.html (arguably, what they call "7nm" isn't quite that, but still...)

The consensus the last time there was a delay was that TSMC's 7nm process is roughly comparable to Intel's 10nm process. They're still ahead, but only until Intel finally ships 10nm. I'm not sure how much this affects the industry in general, but I bet there are some interesting Intel vs Arm discussions being fueled in Apple's product roadmap meetings.

TSMC hasn't shipped 7nm yet. Nor has actual production of chips began.
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