Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

That sinking feeling

antipope.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 178 posts

Re: That sinking feeling

#71

Post by craigsmansion »

bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

> but I think that they had a vote.

Norway also had a vote on the EU. I was also close. "No" won.

What Norway didn't implement was a "winner takes all" approach. They're not in the EU. They're not in the Customs union. They are in the EEA. Everybody wins, everybody loses, but nobody feels like their wishes have been completely ignored.

There is no reason the results of the Brexit referendum couldn't have been interpreted like that. It's not like there's only one seat that can be filled by one person and there has to be a loser. It's not an election.

Re: That sinking feeling

#72

Post by smacktoward »

kevingadd wrote: post #3

Political aspects of Brexit aside, I had no idea Britain's food and fuel situation was so dire in the event of a Hard Brexit. I would have assumed they were more self-sufficient - the near-doomsday predictions coming from civil service is really sobering. It sucks that the US is contributing to this problem right now (in many ways, really). Can they disentangle themselves from this even if they manage to get the gove…

Britain has been dependent on food imports for a long time, ever since the late 19th century. That’s why the U-boat threat in both World Wars was so dangerous — Germany came within an inch or two of sinking enough ships containing food and other vital import goods to starve the country out.

Re: That sinking feeling

#73

Post by kazen44 »

pjc50 wrote: post #51
brandmeyer wrote: post #45

What exactly are the EU red lines in the brexit negotiations?

Indivisibility of the four freedoms: of movement for goods, services, capital and people. The UK seems to be determined to end free movement of people, largely out of anti-slavic racism and systematic misinformation about how the system works by the press.

breaking up the four freedoms is very unlikely, mainly because it is a foundation principle of the EU.

Re: That sinking feeling

#74

Post by losvedir »

maxerickson wrote: post #37
losvedir wrote: post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

The government is going to pay farmers $12 billion in aid due to the tariffs and then they are going to put crops in piles to rot. I guess that technically isn't the sky falling, but the food going to waste is the sort of thing reasonable people would have predicted. They wouldn't necessarily have predicted the targeted bailout. Another thing where the sky isn't falling is that companies that consume steel and alumin…

> I guess that technically isn't the sky falling

Right that is exactly my point. It's totally plausible that we might waste some food or money. By "sky is falling" I mean things like these wink-wink-nudge-nudge articles that Trump is ready for WW3 [0] and is able to use nukes whenever he wants [1], or that 1,000 economists imply tariffs can lead to another Great Depression [2].

It's that latter tenor that I'm getting from cstross's post. I don't doubt that mildly bad things can happen as a result of Brexit. I just am skeptical it will be more than your usual recession, say.

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/11/22...

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/...

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump...

Re: That sinking feeling

#75

Post by mcphage »

api wrote: post #15

I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." The Trump and Brexit elections were for some people a kind of Luddite revolt -- not against technology per se but against globalization. This was a revolt by the working classes of the developed world against a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them. I can't say I…

> I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible."

And he will—to the people that voted for him. Not to the rich pushing globalization; they're going to make out quite well from him.

So on one hand, I do understand the desire for boat-rocking—but when the form they chose was a game of Russian Roulette against themselves, my sympathy rapidly disappears. They say they want to fuck things up, but they really just fucked themselves over, again. Which of course will make them angrier, and open them up to even stronger self-destruction in the future.

Re: That sinking feeling

#76

Post by zaarn »

consto wrote: post #26

While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape. I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but…

Power might be interesting too. Atm the UK is connected to the EU power grid through undersea cables. France exports a lot of energy into the UK, about 5% of total demand.

What will happen on that day? Will France and Netherlands cut the connection?

I wonder if it will be livestreamed when the workers in overalls appear with hacksaws and cut the copper.

For purposes of energy generation, I recommend stocking up on car generators (very good source for 12-14V energy) and Car-Inverters to get grid voltage (and maybe reading up on how to weld a handcrank to a car generator)

Re: That sinking feeling

#77

Post by ttepasse »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #64
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Every other time nations have had disappointing or unplanned referendum results, such as those nations that require referenda on EU treaties, there's been a second vote by way of confirmation. I don't think anyone has ever had a third attempt "to get the right answer". :) Ireland voted against the Nice treaty in 2001, 54% against. A year later 62% voted in favour of it on a higher turnout. It is inconceivable that a…

So, what happened in the year between the referenda?

Yes, the treaty was changed for the Irish. Ireland then voted about the changed treaty, not the original one.

Re: That sinking feeling

#78

Post by maxerickson »

losvedir wrote: post #74
maxerickson wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government is going to pay farmers $12 billion in aid due to the tariffs and then they are going to put crops in piles to rot. I guess that technically isn't the sky falling, but the food going to waste is the sort of thing reasonable people would have predicted. They wouldn't necessarily have predicted the targeted bailout. Another thing where the sky isn't falling is that companies that consume steel and alumin…

> I guess that technically isn't the sky falling Right that is exactly my point. It's totally plausible that we might waste some food or money. By "sky is falling" I mean things like these wink-wink-nudge-nudge articles that Trump is ready for WW3 [0] and is able to use nukes whenever he wants [1], or that 1,000 economists imply tariffs can lead to another Great Depression [2]. It's that latter tenor that I'm getting…

The article about nukes is true and doesn't have any connection to tariffs?

I guess a fun game for you to play would be to write down the positive outcomes you expect and the worst case scenarios you expect. Then if you are wrong you can eat your keyboard or something. And if you are right then you are right.

Re: That sinking feeling

#79

Post by Cthulhu_ »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #64
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Every other time nations have had disappointing or unplanned referendum results, such as those nations that require referenda on EU treaties, there's been a second vote by way of confirmation. I don't think anyone has ever had a third attempt "to get the right answer". :) Ireland voted against the Nice treaty in 2001, 54% against. A year later 62% voted in favour of it on a higher turnout. It is inconceivable that a…

Same with the Scotland referendum, iirc that was also close. After the Brexit vote, fuck yes does Scotland want to separate from the UK.

Re: That sinking feeling

#80

Post by api »

mcphage wrote: post #75
api wrote: post #15

I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." The Trump and Brexit elections were for some people a kind of Luddite revolt -- not against technology per se but against globalization. This was a revolt by the working classes of the developed world against a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them. I can't say I…

> I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." And he will—to the people that voted for him. Not to the rich pushing globalization; they're going to make out quite well from him. So on one hand, I do understand the desire for boat-rocking—but when the form they chose was a game of Russian Roulette against themselves, my sympathy ra…

I think some of them know that.

Would it really be any better if they'd not rioted in the voting booth? If anything the trends that are destroying the American working and middle class are accelerating. They have nothing to lose that wouldn't be lost anyway.

You're totally right that the result will just make them angrier and the cycle will repeat. This is how civilizations fall.

If liberals want to do anything about it they need to start actually giving a damn about America's poor and rapidly shrinking middle class in spite of the fact that they hold "backward and primitive" religious beliefs and are behind the times on social issues.

Here's a suggestion: if you want to go after backward illiberal social and cultural beliefs and policies, punch up. Criticize the rich and powerful advocates of those policies. Don't punch down at poor working class people who regardless of what they believe have no power to actually implement anything anyway.

Post reply on HN