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Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

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Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#181
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like a low estimate of the cost of a senior SWE at Google. They probably earn at least 400k in cash + bonus + stock, and there are employer costs beyond that (office space, benefits, payroll taxes).

Glassdoor has avg total comp for senior swes at google at 193k...

That is definitely not correct.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#182
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The main reason why this won't work is that majority of public simply prefers free ad-infested services over paid ad-free ones. Counterpoint: Apple, one of the most profitable companies. People have been giving their money to Apple before they even flaunted a strong pro-privacy stance, and I have yet to see an ad from Apple that I did not opt in for (although their recent Apple Pay emails have been slightly annoyin…

Please, people don’t buy apple stuff because apple cares for privacy. People buy apple because its products are top notch quality wise.

I don’t buy Apple products because of privacy. I buy Apple products because the alternative in the consumer market -Windows and Android feel like a flea market where Im constantly being advertise to. I like Apple’s business model. I give them money and they give me stuff. Too many other companies sell hardware subsidized by ad sales. For instance, I would gladly pay more for my Roku devices to avoid advertising on the home screen and paid for placement on the remote. I have three Roku TVs but I still use my attached AppleTV devices more often than the Roku apps for just that reason.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#183
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Have you worked for a FAANG? I was at Google for 5.5 years and was the beneficiary of an engineer-retention project for a year of that. I'm now working on a startup. Think of it from the company's perspective: they have an engineer who has already been "paid off" in the sense of having generated more revenue for the company than they are likely to get in salary during a lifetime, and is likely independently wealthy…

There's more: Cos and the open source Vanadium, John Hanke and Ingress/FieldTrip, Niniane and Lively, Hartmut and the quantum lab, Craig N-M and google.org, etc. But you left out the largest retention side project: Jeff Dean and Brain.

pours one out for Vanadium, wipes a tear away

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#184
post #32

> "The company must also settle some internal feuds. Some of the principles that Fuchsia creators are pursuing have already run up against Google’s business model. Google’s ads business relies on an ability to target users based on their location and activity, and Fuchsia’s nascent privacy features would, if implemented, hamstring this important business. There’s already been at least one clash between advertising an…

> The ad team prevailed, this person said.

Sure, don't they make >95% of all google profits.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#185
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ad team prevailed, this person said. Of course they did. A controversial idea, but you know how much easier this would be for everyone if Google offered an option for users to be paid for volunteering your information to them? It's a precedent most fledgling ad companies wouldn't be able to match... even if it's just a few dollars a month, or maybe 30ish bucks a year. It'd cut into Google's bottom line, but it…

I’ve got a better idea. Google could always ship a product that people are willing to pay enough for where it is a sustainable business without being as supported.

> I’ve got a better idea.

Except that is an awful idea.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#186
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve got a better idea. Google could always ship a product that people are willing to pay enough for where it is a sustainable business without being as supported.

> I’ve got a better idea. Except that is an awful idea.

Since when was it an awful idea to sell something that the market valued enough for a company to make a profit without subsidizing the product with ads?

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$50M is tiny compared to the opportunity cost of having 100 of your best engineers jump ship to a competitor or found a new one. Google will pay $50M for a startup with 10 proven engineers and then shut down their product, just so that they aren't on the open market where they can challenge the $50B+ golden goose. Silicon Valley basically works on the principle of "Never let your employees do to you what you did to y…

> $50M is tiny compared to the opportunity cost of having 100 of your best engineers jump ship to a competitor or found a new one. See my comment to nnq. You can't just take "100 of your best engineers", and stick them on some bogus project that regularly gets raided for its best talent by hiring managers. If they'd rather work on a bogus project than on a real product, they're not very useful engineers. The project…

You talk tough but I don't think your understanding of the problem space warrants that tone. Doing research & development is not something that involves lying to investors. Investors love new products. That is how they make money by investing.

Consider the project mentioned in the article. Sure, it will cost millions of dollars to develop. But OSes are in high demand, existing OSes have quite a few sore points, and plenty of people have made money selling operating systems or devices that need a custom operating system (MS/DOS, Windows, iOS, etc.) So it is not categorically insane from a business or engineering perspective to say "hey, we're going to invest in the development of a new operating system that will change the world."

On the other hand, maybe all the OS world needs are some patches on top of Linux to smooth over the rough spots.

People that see the project the first way will say they're working on a "moonshot". People that see the project the second way will say they're working on a "senior engineer retention project."

Any big company will likely want to hedge its bets, and indeed... apparently Google has people working on a new OS, and they obviously have people patching the Linux kernel (Android). No matter which approach ends up being correct, Google makes money. I don't think the investors are going to be filing many criminal charges against the board.

Back to the retention aspect, remember what the downside is in this scenario. The people that want to build their own OS to change the world or whatever just leave and go do it. They have money and can probably rope in some investors. If they end up being right about the approach... there is no more Android and that means no more Google ads on mobile phones, no more location history, no more searches... etc. That is quite a downside for Google. So even though the project is "this seems crazy, but we don't want these people to quit", it's 100% the right financial decision.

I think the shareholders can appreciate that.

That said, as an employee... this was all a little too much for me when I was at Google. No matter what you worked on, there was always a competing project with twice as much headcount and 1/10th the users. You would have a meeting with them along the lines of "hey, this thing you're assembling a 30 person team for... my team already made and it's in production and working." They would be like "nah, our use case is slightly different and rather than editing 1 line of code and getting no promotion, I'd like to build a HUGE team and put an EZ promotion packet together." Not for me.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wave and Hello.com each had over 50 engineers, and Andy Rubin spent several hundred million (perhaps billions) on robotics acquisitions, all for projects that ended up getting canceled. At some point the difference between "engineer retention project" and "risky venture that probably won't pan out but could win big" ceases to matter. Larry Page is exceptionally good at "Heads I win, tails I win even more" gambits - h…

> Wave and Hello.com each had over 50 engineers, and Andy Rubin spent several hundred million (perhaps billions) on robotics acquisitions, all for projects that ended up getting canceled. And they all got canceled once their business case became void. None of these were bogus projects. They all initially had a business case, and were run by engineers who proved themselves before. When that business case fail to pan o…

> If I'm a Google shareholder, ... then I'm going to be unhappy.

Are you a voting shareholder (class A or B)? If you have class C (no vote), they don't have to care. If you have class A (voting public) shares, which get 1/10 the vote of the class B (management) shares, your influence is incidental at best.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wave and Hello.com each had over 50 engineers, and Andy Rubin spent several hundred million (perhaps billions) on robotics acquisitions, all for projects that ended up getting canceled. At some point the difference between "engineer retention project" and "risky venture that probably won't pan out but could win big" ceases to matter. Larry Page is exceptionally good at "Heads I win, tails I win even more" gambits - h…

I would not characterize fiber as having any notable impact on the country at large's internet speeds/caps.

Would you say that most major cable providers now having gigabit offerings now wasn't at least partially pushed by the threat of Google Fiber? I mean, in an area Fiber never launched in now, two of the three ISPs here provide gigabit via coax now (Comcast and WOW), and I'm hard pressed to believe they would've jumped from ~150 Mbps service to gigabit service at about the same price if someone else wasn't threatening to do it first.

Sure, it took a while after Google Fiber launched, but there was a lot of infrastructure to deploy. I'd argue Google had a hand in this.

Re: Project Fuchsia: Google Is Quietly Working on a Successor to Android

#190
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We would appreciate to see the worldwide numbers of those stats. Well, that wasn't the message being discussed at Google IO, specially at the ChromeOS sessions regarding usability.

Global tablet market share held by tablet vendors from 2nd quarter 2011 to 1st quarter 2018. Microsoft is no where to be found. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276635/market-share-held...

That marketshare is by brand, not OS.

From what I see here there are lots of Windows tablets to be had, from various vendors.

http://www.mediamarkt.de/de/category/_2in1-convertibles-5420...

https://www.saturn.de/de/category/_2-in-1-convertibles-46890...

Which are the ones actually on display when I go to those shops.

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