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55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

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Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#21
post #12

Where are these interest payments going to? Who profits off the US being perpetually in debt?

The treasury has a one-page breakdown of the kinds of debt. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2018/opd... It's not a deep dive but I thought it was a great overview for fitting on one page.

(edit: more recent link)

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#22
post #7

It's an interesting point and something that we should talk about. But the article doesn't really make the case that this is a waste of money. If it was advantageous to take on the debt in the first place, it might also be worthwhile to keep the debt on the books now. Presumably there is an interest rate at which it will stop being worth servicing the debt, but I don't really know where that point is.

Amen. You have to compare assets vs debt, and then you have to compare asset growth projections vs debt growth projections, as any responsible finance thinking would go. Even then US debt provides a market function, so debt on a governmental level is quite different than say household or corporate debt.

To wit, US assets value in something like the 240 trillion dollar range, though I’m sure you could find wide variance to such measurements given the complexity of the US asset holdings.

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#23
post #9
post #2

This reminds me of selling Bitcoin in order to pay off debt.

I don't quite get your comment... do you think BTC will be worth a lot more in the near future?

The point is that the dollars used to buy BTC has to come from somewhere.

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#25
I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is that the Federal Government of a monetarily sovereign nation (like the US, UK, Japan, Australia, etc.) plays by different rules to a household or business.

This could be a massive problem if the debt was denominated in a currency other than US dollars (which the US Government controls the monopoly currency issuer for). But since all of the US's debt is in US dollars, and they're not constrained by artificial limitations like commodity convertibility or fixed exchange rates, it's just an interesting fact that doesn't actually really matter much.

The real killers are excessive private sector debt, and even worse, debt denominated in a foreign currency.

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#26
post #19
post #7

It's an interesting point and something that we should talk about. But the article doesn't really make the case that this is a waste of money. If it was advantageous to take on the debt in the first place, it might also be worthwhile to keep the debt on the books now. Presumably there is an interest rate at which it will stop being worth servicing the debt, but I don't really know where that point is.

well the game will continue until you cant service your debt payments anymore. Then you default. Crisis, pain, recession. Rinse then repeat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_debt_crises

There's an alternative to defaulting on debt and that is to pay it off. Is there even a case to be made that we are in or near a crisis?

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#27
A couple of ways I can think of real quickly that this is meaningless:

1. All money is debt insofar as it only represent goods as services yet to be rendered, an I Owe You as it were

2. If an entity is able to continue borrowing (more and more) money it represents a willingness of lenders to lend, which is a direct representation of their faith in that entities ability to service the debt

3. Whether a nation-state should balance it's budget is more a philosophical question coloured be ideology rather than a pragmatic concern.

4. If you believe the good times are going to keep rolling, and any bad times will, on average, pass relatively swiftly (people do have a tendency to persevere), then not borrowing money results in a lost opportunity cost.

I'm sure someone can respond with some equally convincing reasons as to why nation-states shouldn't run a deficit.

Go!

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#29

I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is that the Federal Government of a monetarily sovereign nation (like the US, UK, Japan, Australia, etc.) plays by different rules to a household or business. This could be a massive problem if the debt was denominated in a currency other than US dollars (which the US Government controls the monopoly currency issuer for). But since all of the US's debt is in US dollars, and t…

That is partly because of the petrodollar BTW.

Re: 55% of the US National Debt Is the Result of Repaying Debt with More Debt

#30
post #21
post #12

Where are these interest payments going to? Who profits off the US being perpetually in debt?

The treasury has a one-page breakdown of the kinds of debt. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2018/opd... It's not a deep dive but I thought it was a great overview for fitting on one page. (edit: more recent link)

19k could be paid off by a single person, has this increased in the last two years?
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