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People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

freakonomics.com

61–70 of 453 posts

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#61

If behavioural economists are so good at predicting human behaviour, why aren’t they popular among consumer facing companies? Why don’t such companies have a special position for behaviourial evonomists? Why none of the behaviourial Economists have ever tried starting up?

> If behavioural economists are so good at predicting human behaviour, why aren’t they popular among consumer facing companies?

For the exact same reason that most software companies don't have a Computer Science Ph.D. on staff. Many companies don't need a high-caliber research department.

People who learn and understand how to apply ideas and theories from behavioral economics in biz and econ courses are well-represented in sales and marketing roles. Just like people who learn and understand how to apply ideas and theories from Computer Science in CS courses are well-represented in engineering roles.

> why none of the behaviourial Economists have ever tried starting up?

I'm sure many have lucrative consulting portfolios, but generally speaking: because they already have a pretty cushy and very well-paying job doing what they love.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#63
post #45

Boy does it take a while to get to the main topic of the title. From the article/podcast: ... THALER: Well, first of all, when we use this phrase libertarian paternalism, we’re using libertarian as an adjective. And so we’re trying to say we’re going to design policies that don’t force anyone to do anything. So the claim that we’re trying to tell people what to do, or force them to do things, is just completely wrong…

"suppose I’m walking across the park, and I see, “Oh, there’s a softball game over there. I think I’ll go watch that for a while,” Google Maps doesn’t scold me."

I've noticed just in the past few days an update has been pushed so that now every time Google has to recalculate the route, instead just saying the new directions "turn right on third street", now it says "OK, turn right on third street", and I find myself having a somewhat negative reaction to the OK, like, yes, of course it's fucking OK you stupid computer, I just did it.

I think it may be an uncanny valley effect; when the computer just blindly told me the next turn after recalculation, I treated it like a tool and wasn't offended that it was giving me output in reaction to my unexpected input. With the addition of "OK" prefixing the new announcement, suddenly it's taken a half-step towards being more human and conversational, and now my brain can't help but run it through my human conversation templates, and none of them are giving me a very friendly interpretation of the "OK" for the scenario "Someone told you what you should do, you silently did something else without telling them you were going to, so they said 'OK, do this thing instead'." My brain hears sarcasm, like "OK fine make this turn instead", or exasperation, or something like that. Especially as my current commute has a place where I'm dodging around some construction that Google just hasn't picked up on so I get three "OKs" in about a minute, and my brain says "ah, that must be increasing exasperation with you".

Obviously, as I've described it to you this way, I intellectually and rationally know that nothing has changed other than the simple addition of a single word announcing a recalculation. But that doesn't invalidate the processing I'm getting from the rest of my brain. It just means I can identify why I'm reacting the way I'm reacting. Many other people will not be so introspective.

Which, getting back on topic, shows how hard all this stuff can be to get right.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#64
post #43

We’re dumb in comparison to the systems we’ve created. Increasingly, the disparity between what our technology is capable of and our own limitations as animals will become a pressing issue. One thing that always bothers me is how we have this myth of personal responsibility that supposes an individual is equipped to defend their own interests against a multinational corporation on their own. “Well I just don’t get wh…

And many of our problems are collective action problems: where it makes sense for individuals to defect on their own, and they can only raise the standard for the group if they act together. At different scales this means unionization and professional organizations, government regulation, and international regulation, to prevent whole countries from defecting - this is in large part what the EU is about, and a signif…

"Collective action has its own problem: power structures encourage corruption and misuse of the pooled power."

Exactly. I tend to be wary of concentrating power. The larger the group the more likely that there are conflicts of interest within the group.

Perhaps more importantly, large groups just don't make sense in a lot of cases. If I make a union of milk drinkers, we can buy in huge bulk and get a discount. But then we have 1000000 bottles of milk in one place that will go bad in a couple weeks. We need to invent a distribution network, and a way to figure out who actually needs milk and when, and a way to track who is drinking the most milk so they can pay higher dues. In other words, the union hasn't accomplished anything and basically everything will be the same.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#65
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also means laws/regulations to just plain ban harmful behaviors. Collectivization to alter market forces cannot fix everything. Some things need to just stop. Selling CFCs needs to stop. That won't happen by naming and shaming involved companies. It won't happen by people gathering on facebook to organize a boycott. It happens by people in uniforms enforcing the law, with violence when necessary. Sometimes that is…

Well it takes collective action to decide what to ban.

>> collective action to decide

No. Once upon a time we nominated experts to make most of those decisions. Groups like the EPA or the IRS were given a mandate to examine what was going on and ban behaviors that did harm. But today "regulation" is a bad word. Everything is political. The EPA and IRS cannot ban anything without massive public debate. In fact, most regulatory bodies are so under pressure to reduce any and all regulation that they rarely ever ban anything. Quick and efficient regulation of harmful behavior is dead.

Example: the recent bill to ban upskirting photography in the UK. Nothing much to debate. But the bill gets killed by the new breed of politicians who demand every new regulation be subject to the full public process in order to make the act of passing new regulations as difficult as possible.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#66
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually often see the opposite less intelligent people are often carefree and more happy.

Ignorance is bliss. Quotes are like bible passages. There is one for every occasion and every perspective. Given one quote, you can find an equally poignant and contradictory quote. Time and tide wait for no man! Slow and steady wins the race! This is why I cringe when I see people leading their lives based on quotes.

Quotation is a serviceable substitute for wit. -Oscar Wilde

A witty saying proves nothing -Voltaire

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#67
B.E. is a subject I'm incredibly excited about. I'm glad to see this at the top of YC today.

Every (somewhat major) decision I'm making now, I'm constantly reminding myself of various biases and silliness that I participate in unwillingly (or even sometimes willingly).

I would say this study has been immensely helpful, and Thaler is a huge contributor to this for me. (Freakonomics, also, has been a great learning resource.)

For anyone interested in this subject, I recommend Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman. (You'd think I should get a referral bonus as often as I talk about this book.) It quite literally changed my life. Of course, Nudge is the other juggernaut in the field.

In fact, if anyone is particularly interested, I'd love to chat. Profile has contact details.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#68
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And many of our problems are collective action problems: where it makes sense for individuals to defect on their own, and they can only raise the standard for the group if they act together. At different scales this means unionization and professional organizations, government regulation, and international regulation, to prevent whole countries from defecting - this is in large part what the EU is about, and a signif…

It also means laws/regulations to just plain ban harmful behaviors. Collectivization to alter market forces cannot fix everything. Some things need to just stop. Selling CFCs needs to stop. That won't happen by naming and shaming involved companies. It won't happen by people gathering on facebook to organize a boycott. It happens by people in uniforms enforcing the law, with violence when necessary. Sometimes that is…

Thank you for this lucid description of the authoritarian position.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#69
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And many of our problems are collective action problems: where it makes sense for individuals to defect on their own, and they can only raise the standard for the group if they act together. At different scales this means unionization and professional organizations, government regulation, and international regulation, to prevent whole countries from defecting - this is in large part what the EU is about, and a signif…

It also means laws/regulations to just plain ban harmful behaviors. Collectivization to alter market forces cannot fix everything. Some things need to just stop. Selling CFCs needs to stop. That won't happen by naming and shaming involved companies. It won't happen by people gathering on facebook to organize a boycott. It happens by people in uniforms enforcing the law, with violence when necessary. Sometimes that is…

"...Sometimes that is the only way to stop individuals bent on illegally benefiting themselves at the expense of others...."

Not just "sometimes", it takes the threat of violent people in uniforms ALL of the time when dealing with people bent on illegally benefiting themselves at the expense of others.

The issue is that the violent people in uniforms, (and even the people controlling them for that matter), can ALSO be bent on benefiting themselves at the expense of others.

It's not only grassroots organizations that can be corrupt, the government itself is actually even more likely to be corrupt. So you almost have to solve corruption before you try to solve the other structural issues. And corruption is just a very hard problem to solve.

Re: People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

#70
post #63
post #45

Boy does it take a while to get to the main topic of the title. From the article/podcast: ... THALER: Well, first of all, when we use this phrase libertarian paternalism, we’re using libertarian as an adjective. And so we’re trying to say we’re going to design policies that don’t force anyone to do anything. So the claim that we’re trying to tell people what to do, or force them to do things, is just completely wrong…

"suppose I’m walking across the park, and I see, “Oh, there’s a softball game over there. I think I’ll go watch that for a while,” Google Maps doesn’t scold me." I've noticed just in the past few days an update has been pushed so that now every time Google has to recalculate the route, instead just saying the new directions "turn right on third street", now it says "OK, turn right on third street", and I find myself…

I haven't noticed that's but it's hilarious. "OK" is how you boss Google tech, so "OK" is how it bosses you too.
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