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Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

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Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#241
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure Waymo will make a lot of progress with their massive investment but using SV money as an indicator for a project's ultimate success seems unwise at this point. I think the real question is whether the big investors in self-driving cars will make progress creating virtual rails for their vehicles, e.g. roads where we can keep pedestrians out.

> roads where we can keep pedestrians out. Aren't major roads pedestrian free in the US? Motorways and major roads are in the UK.

Only motorways in the UK, and roads designated under special classification.

I've walked and cycled along multilane A-roads. It's not fun but it's legal.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How mature a system is and whether it's morally responsible (or imperative) to release it are different questions. > The "clones" are deliberately less good because the manufacturers offering them care more about safety and reliability than about marketing beta products. When I say "maturity," I'm not talking about holding back features. I'm saying that Tesla's system works better in situations where other manufactur…

Ok, we have different definitions of maturity. To me, it means your system's core functionality works reliably in the use cases it is designed for. Nice-to-haves like speed smoothing are secondary. Thanks for the links to your other comments. I don't think there's fruitful debate to be had here - we're just of different opinions. I think autopilot encourages bad driving behavior in drivers who would otherwise be more…

> Ok, we have different definitions of maturity. To me, it means your system's core functionality works reliably in the use cases it is designed for. Nice-to-haves like speed smoothing are secondary.

I agree with this definition, but I see it more as a sliding scale than a checkbox. I think it comes down to whether you look at each system in isolation or whether you put them all on a single spectrum. I'm imagining human driving at one end of a spectrum and fully automated driving at the other, and looking at what percent of driving conditions each system provides a safety or utility improvement in (so you can see why features like speed smoothing and reacting to nearby cars quickly become relevant to my thinking). But I can see why, judging each system on its own, one would say that Autosteer is less mature at what it aims to do than simpler and more constrained systems are at what they aim to do.

You summarized my take on Autopilot as accurately as one can in a single sentence (thank you for that btw). Like you, I look forward to the day when data is available to resolve competing hypotheses like these. Elon pledged on the last earnings call to release quarterly Autopilot data reports; I'm hoping those will include Autopilot vs non-Autopilot driving usage and their respective highway accident rates, broken down by feature (TACC, Autosteer, TACC + Autosteer, etc). I think that'd be the best way to assess Autopilot safety, as it would control for all other factors. It'd be great to have apples-to-apples numbers from all manufacturers, but I think that will take longer and probably some coordination from NHTSA.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has used Autopilot and many of its "clones" as well as worked with several OEMs on these features, Tesla's offering is not more mature, it's more irresponsible. Autopilot is a combination of ADAS features that many other OEMs have had for a while and deliberately chosen not to tie together due to safety concerns. These concerns have been validated multiple times now by Autopilot errors. The "clones" ar…

How mature a system is and whether it's morally responsible (or imperative) to release it are different questions. > The "clones" are deliberately less good because the manufacturers offering them care more about safety and reliability than about marketing beta products. When I say "maturity," I'm not talking about holding back features. I'm saying that Tesla's system works better in situations where other manufactur…

Braking before a turn ( or trailing-off in the turn ) is only necessary when the approach speed is higher than the entry speed.

For a computer-driven car with accurate mapping, and hence foresight, it is more efficient to plan the approach so that no braking is necessary. After all, reducing cost requires efficiency rather than speed. Likewise on a long cycle ride I'll try to match the approach and entry speeds by easing-off rather than throwing-away calories by braking.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporations like Alphabet don't spend 1% of their revenue on something unless they're very confident it will pan out.

Alphabet spent $12.5 billion on Motorola Mobility in 2011 and sold it to Lenovo for $3 billion three years later. The lost $9+ billion? Nobody really noticed. For Alphabet, $1 billion is mad money, not the rent. Self driving cars are a moonshot.

You are missing a lot of details. Google purchased and then sold the cable hardware business for $2.4B to Arris. Then there is the $6.6B tax credit and the selling the factories and also they kept the AP group.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/04/29/why-goog...

But the key was it allowed Google to do cross license deals that avoided paying a competitor patent license fees which is double bad.

Paying money and giving your competitor money.

Moto was a brilliant deal by Google.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#245
QUESTION: Is this really and AI problem or is it a sensor problem.

I mean, if there’s a big blob of something solid in the road in front of you, it doesn’t really matter what it is does it. You still have to not run into it.

It seems that because these poor AIs are relying on LIDAR and even just radar and cameras with Tesla, that they aren’t confident enough in that data to stop if they sense a big blob of something in the road.

If you gave any of these AIs a really high quality 3D rendering of the area around them I would presume they’d do a damn fine job of navigating it and not running into anything. At that point it’s just a computer game.

So either we need better sensors or better algorithms for extracting better 3D data from the existing ones.

It’s not like these fatalities are caused by particularly crazy problems. It’s not that a kid ran behind an ice cream van and the AI couldn’t predict it would run into the road like a human would. It’s just that they make dumb decisions a learner driver wouldn’t make because they can’t see the road properly.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#246
post #6

This has been hanging out there for a while it's just that it never got much mainstream press. I wonder what it is specifically about the concept of "AI" that makes it so prone to the magical thinking that drives these boom-bust cycles. "I tell adult audiences not to expect it in their lifetimes. And I say the same thing to students" "Merely dealing with lighting conditions, weather conditions, and traffic conditions…

You don't have to solve the entirety of the problem for a solution to be useful. The autonomous cars only drive when it's 80 degrees out, sunny and on predetermined paths? Still welcomed.

It's not that they would not be welcomed, but they might not quite deserve the billions being pumped into them at the moment...

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#247
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason this even looks like a problem is that humans don't follow the law. In most jurisdictions if there's an emergency vehicle running flashers and/or siren behind you on the same side of the road you're supposed to slow, pull over, stop, then proceed only when the vehicle passes you. If the emergency vehicle parks behind you then you have effectively been pulled over. Pulling over safely is practically th…

So if the autonomous vehicle hears the sirens, does it start to pull over, or wait until it can also detect flashers? What about a loud stereo playing a siren sound or a car with flashers installed on it? I'm just wondering, because although I know this sounds like a pretty simple problem, I don't think that it is.

Again, the law and custom already cover this.

When you hear a siren you're to become alert for the possibility of flashers behind you. You are not supposed to just start pulling over because it may not be on the same road as you and pulling over may block traffic. Imagine if every car in a crowded downtown pulled over every time the drivers could hear a siren. Instant gridlock.

So a siren played loudly on the radio will not cause a rule-following car to pull over, regardless of who or what is driving it. I presume you're talking about siren sounds in music, but...

Installing flashers that produce the same pattern as official police flashers and/or playing a continual siren is impersonating an officer. That's a serious crime.

Fake flashers will probably cause self-driving cars to pull over but they'll also cause humans to pull over. Not a self-driving car problem.

In the future police flashers can have a cryptographic element emdedded in the flash pattern that a self-driving car or a human-driven car with sensors can authenticate but that's an enhancement over the current situation.

It's one of the best-defined situations in traffic because it's precisely the fallback behavior. Detect emergency vehicle behind you, pull over as far as is safe, wait. If a self-driving car can't do that then it's hardly self-driving at all.

The real trouble, which you haven't brought up, is when the traffic is already at a standstill and an emergency vehicle approaches. The soft and gradual scooch-scooch movements that we have to do to clear enough space for the emergency vehicle are a much tougher case.

You can pull over a self-driving car. You just may have difficulty getting past it to an emergency.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#248
post #33

I'm continually astounded by the Tesla hasbara: "Tesla and a host of other imitators already sell a limited form of Autopilot" Imitators? You mean GM, Mercedes and VAG that have had these systems for longer than Tesla are just bad copies of the glorious Tesla autopilot? Unreal.

Hasbara does not have a bad conotation. Did you mean "muhabarat" propoganda?

Adding that to my vocabulary. Thanks!

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#249
More I read about AV, more I get the idea that, these AVs need to think to some extent like a human driver. My notion is that, these AV research focus blindly on making individual cars think too much. Am curious what happens if the thinking and data-collection is distributed instead, like swarm intelligence, each AV nearby can broadcast what it sees and where it is(extends the vision of each car in a given location beyond it's own sensors); front car suddenly breaks/had an accident/roadblock/switched to human intervention => all following cars will negotiate if they should bypass(reporting car will be parking) or wait (reporting car will use another lane); a car is on a blind turn => oncoming traffic from both sides can negotiate if this car should attempt the turn because others are far enough/slow enough to let it turn safely or wait until they are gone(high speed so not enough time for turning car before that one approaches); a road is very confusing so all cars following should switch to/request human intervention with ample time ... etc and given how cellular phones switch nicely between different towers and areas, we can use similar tech to allow all nearby cars to communicate ... that is communicate, coordinate and decide. Now this have some issues like privacy, drivers with bad intention can feed bad data to cause mass confusion, legitimacy of data received etc ... which can probably be an interesting place to borrow some ideas from blockchain to verify legitimacy etc ... I think instead of focusing too much on ml, try to incorporate other techs which solve minor but similar issues is a good idea.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to have full/partial/enough understanding of any AV technology/blockchain/distributed computing/swarm intelligence etc... so my comment is more or less an opinion based on what I think may be interesting, which may or may not be already thought by and discarded for not-enough viability by the AV research.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All we need is that they don't kill more people than average human drivers do per passenger-mile. Assuming ride-sharing we could even let them be a little more deadly than human drivers and still save lives.

No, that's a wrong benchmark. We shouldn't compare driverless cars with the average human driver. We should compare them with the average human driver assisted by the best technology (which is say waymo's driverless software running passively to prevent accidents).

That's an irrelevant benchmark except for people who pay premium to have the safest ride in the world.

Everyone else performs a tradeoff along multiple axes including price, convenience and safety. Not needing a driver, freeing up time and lowering prices increase utility which could even justify a slight increase in risk. But even if we don't want to increase risk then a self-driving system still only has to be as good as humans on average to result in no net-increase of deaths per passenger mile while still increasing overall utility.

And more simply, it is silly to expect the maximum possible value to be the minimum requirement.

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