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Say Hello to Full Employment

theatlantic.com

231–240 of 348 posts

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#231
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goes to show that Obama did much better than he was often given credit for. While Obamacare fell fall short of the medicare for all that is needed by business - imagine not having to worry about covering healthcare for employees for your startup - his overall job of captaining the ship through incredibly hard times was very successful.

The President of the United States does not plan the economy.

They can't make it, but there is some historical evidence that they (or, more broadly, the USG) can ruin it.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#232
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like we are strong agreeing. If we change the how student loans worked we could reduce the rate of increase. If we changed out medicine worked we could bring down prices (currently there are way to many links in the chain all making a buck). Also, if we allowed more housing to be built, prices would go down. >Also, forcing employers to pay more is actually a supply/demand conundrum. If you want to buy unskille…

I cannot disagree more. It's a "minimum wage". What good is it if it's not a living wage? What's the point of having a minimum wage that one cannot survive on?

Honestly I would be fine with no minimum wage. I also tend a little more libertarian than most. I am fine with the minimum wage setting a floor to how much people are paid because it cuts down on explotive practices.

That said, putting the minimum wage to an amount that is surviable at 40 hours a week removes people on the margins that would benefit from a job that paid these than a living wage. Note I am taking as a given that a business will only employe someone if they on average produce more benefit than they cost.

Two examples of people on the margin that would otherwise be priced out.

Frank is retired and draws social security he is old and doesn't move as fast any more. He gets a job with the park service cleaning/resetting campgrounds. He enjoys being outside, interacting with campers, and the extra money is nice. Since the service pays per spot cleaned, Frank will never make a living wage. I think Frank should be able to take this job.

James just got done serving 5 years for felony distribution of crack. Seeing his son only once a month has made James decide to go on the straight and narrow from now on. As an ex-con it is hard for him to find a job. In fact because ex-con tend to be bad employees most business don't bother. If there was no minimum wage a business could hire James at a rate of the average ex-con and he could prove himself a good worker and move to a better paying job. I think such a job should exist for James.

I think these are two examples of productive economic activity that would otherwise be impossible if the minimum wage was set to a living wage.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because not everyone needs to survive on it. As pointed out above students and the elderly can easily be priced out of the labor market if the minimum wage is pegged to this standard.

I can't really agree. There are enough who do need to survive on it that it should be a living wage. And I can't agree that them being priced out is a problem, because back when it was a living wage, students were able to get part-time jobs at minimum wage just fine.

My father went to college in the early 80s, he was able to work as a ditch digger in the sunmers and pay for his school, books, and living off of that. Let's say he worked 80 hr/week 12 weeks a year. Say it now cost 25k a year (that's low) to go to college. To cover that now you would need to net ~$26 hr to do the same thing. The issue isn't that wages have grown to slow, it is that important costs have grown to quickly.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#234
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent, medical expenses, and college expenses have all out paced inflation so it is more important to fix the underlying issues in those markets than force employers to pay more.

Doing away with health insurance and student loans is unlikely to be a popular political position...

No, but changing the health system so it is cheaper could be workable. Also, if made colleges partially responsible for ensuring loans were repaid it would reduce student debt.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#235
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

The selection of this metric is not some recent political decision - the headline number has been U3 for a loooong time, and its definition was decided by the UN-affiliated International Labor Organization. It's not a good measure, but it's not a case of politicians picking a convenient metric, it's just a case of a bad metric being optimized for.

It is essentially the only metric available that is readily comparable between countries. Also, whatever definition you use for "real unemployment rate" that rate will be linearly dependent on the U-3 metric. If the U-3 number goes up, then "real unemployment" goes up and likewise if it goes down.

Those who are interested can read the report to the 13th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (yes, there are conferences for everything) in which the unemployment definition which U-3 is based on was adpoted: http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1982/82B09_438_engl.pdf

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that take into account the incarcerated? From Wikipedia: > In total, 6,899,000 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail, or prison) in 2013 – about 2.8% of adults (1 in 35) in the U.S. resident population. It's very difficult to find work with a criminal record in the US.

And yet, without enough legitimate work opportunities, those with criminal records are strongly incentivized to resort to grey and black markets (or theft) to make a living. A vicious cycle. We've got to get rid of the mindset that we need to "protect ourselves", both corporately and individually, from "dangerous people" (i.e. former criminals) by excluding them from our lives and our companies. "Love your neighbor a…

This problem goes pretty deep. Like, down to basic brain function and peoples epistemology. It is far easier for the brain to hang on to binary distinctions, to split things into good and bad. Even if a person looks at a list of 'pros' and 'cons' for making a decision, and decides a certain way is the best solution, they will adamantly refuse to admit or accept the notion that they agreed to bear those 'cons'. They will only admit (even internally to themselves) that they chose to pursue the 'pros'.

If most people were to look at safety only a bit differently, their world outlook would change substantially. If they realized that it is stupendously easy and simple for any of the multitudes of people they come into contact with on a daily basis to kill them, and that no police force in the world could possibly stop such a thing from happening if the person were to decide to do it with no warning, the initial response would probably be fear. But, upon further reflection, they might realize that despite the tremendous ease, despite what others might have gained at any point, it simply has never happened to them. What could possibly explain that? There are ex-convicts, unpleasant people, people with disturbed worldviews, psychopaths, and other 'bad people' everywhere and you've certainly been in contact with them quite regularly. And... you've been, and continue to be, safe.

While it is challenging to keep a human being alive, what with them having all sorts of needs, it is very easy to kill one. Someone walks up to you and pulls out a knife with a 2 inch tiny blade and simply presses it into your jugular and you will most likely die in a minute. Or you could get hit with a car, or something could be put into your food, or your house could be set on fire with you in it, there are innumerable methods that are all easy and entirely within the capability of any normal person. But, killing a human requires something else. It requires the willingness to kill. Almost no one has that. Military training is arduous and difficult because even giving this willingness to the average person is insanely hard to do (and they settle for simply ingraining killing as a reflex response since they have never actually accomplished manufacturing the actual will, so soldiers typically kill before their conscious mind can decide what to do, taking their will out of the equation, resulting in neurological damage that manifests as PTSD but that's another topic). To presume that even a "bad person" runs around with this willingness constantly within them is quite ludicrous once you've faced the reality of how rare it is for such violence to occur.

And then when you look at the violence which does occur, and try to understand it, what makes those situations so different, you quickly notice that essentially all occur in situations of desperation. You might be led to suspect that perhaps the desperation is more the problem rather than the persons involved. Perhaps the 'bad people' who didn't kill anybody the day before or the day after aren't simply murder machines who will always be a threat.

This all, however, requires a great deal of thinking. And thinking about emotionally arousing topics at that. Life, death, the uncertainty of strangers, the fragility of ones own situation, etc. Before you can begin down the road of thinking about these things, you have to know how to think. And you have to be willing to think. Both of those factors are in substantially short supply in modern society. The knowing how to think because we don't teach it in schools (the Republican Party in Texas actually had opposition to the teaching of critical thinking skills as a primary plank in their official party platform not long ago) save in college philosophy courses. The willingness due to a total reliance upon intuition as a guide to truth. Intuition can not deal with these topics at all. It arises from the 'default behavior' of our brains which arises from their structure that evolved to keep us alive (just) in small tribes on the African savannah. It is prone to obsession with fear, and fearing the unknown, and fleeing from threats rather than facing or dealing with them. Until a person can turn their back on intuition and use reason instead, the monstrous 'bad people' will be a constant bugaboo.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#237
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, how about instead of requiring employers to pay more we reduce the cost housing, medicine, and schooling which are the biggest drains on people expenses.

Why not both? The economy is healthier with safety nets that prevent people from "dropping out" of the economy through homeless, excessive debt, being trapped under huge debt burdens that limit their options, etc. But the economy is also healthier when it is fully participatory. When only a small slice of the public has any significant amount of discretionary spending the economy tends to stagnate.

The biggest change to safety nets I want to see is the restructuring of benefit phase out because currently people get in a position that earn more money will decrease their standard of living. That is an awful thing for them and for society.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#238
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc. For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market…

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Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#239
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very similar to the conversation around the gender wage gap as well.

Why was this downvoted? Women tend not to be crazy like men and thus are more likely to choose fulfiling careers that have lower pay, and seek more work life balance. When accounting for these factors, the existence of a gender pay gap becomes more questionable.

First, when you control for everything there is still a gap, it's just smaller. 94 cents on the dollar is nothing to sneeze at.

Second, when you do that you're sort of controlling the problem away. Women don't seek more work/life balance because they're not as crazy as men. They do it because they're expected to carry more of the burden of raising a child. The literature is clear that the wage gap is relatively small until children enter the picture. After that the gap skyrockets.

This is why the main practical goal of every wage gap activist is equalizing the burden of having a child. It's why the number one policy issue is universal mandatory parental leave for both genders.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#240
post #185
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they this is true, this will be amazing. For too long we have sold out the American worker to unfair trade and offshoring. It’s great to see our workers in neglected sectors of the economy have a chance to get back in.

I'm seeing lots of "help wanted" signs. In fast food places. This isn't progress.

My worst fear, the Worst Case Scenario that I see as being depressingly possible, is that the spread of automation will result in nonsense jobs. That our society is so completely wedded to the idea that everything of value must be gained through suffering and that this is the right and proper course of the universe that companies will be compelled to employ certain numbers of human workers despite there not being any actual need. 'Having a job' is not a natural, or necessarily fundamentally desired, state. Not for the individual, or for wider society. It was a purely utilitarian solution arrived at in the past when pressures were different. When pressures change, social practices have to change too, or the result is always bad. Concentrating on making sure everyone has a job while arduously fighting to ensure that workers are paid as little as possible can get us back to the era before the New Deal. I see nothing that would prevent that. Entire families, youth included (though likely not children, but certainly adolescents), working 16 hours a day, 6 days a week, and barely being able to feed themselves.

When all of society is willing to say "they don't deserve more pay, the machines are doing all the work" including the workers themselves, and 'being employed' is seen as some sort of moral imperative that is more meaningful than a paycheck and totally detached from actually producing value... things can get bad. We should always remember history, and that those people were not fundamentally different from us. They were willing to bear it. We will be too. And while they didn't have a century of fighting against 'socialist' policies so were willing to discuss the New Deal, we are in a different situation on that count. Such a solution would not be discussed seriously, much less attempted.

(But, I don't fear this too much. The fact is technology is cheap and has made people so productive that its far more likely they will realize that companies no longer provide any tangible benefit compared to working directly for customers online, especially once the software is there to facilitate it.)

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