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Say Hello to Full Employment

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Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#131

Post by pmiller2 »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #88
User23 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc. For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market…

> deflation is the theme going forward

I sure haven't seen it. The price of gas, rent, food, etc. have gone nowhere but up for me. Is there any sector of the economy where deflation is actually happening right now?

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#132

Post by s73v3r_ »

Veelox wrote: post #122
s73v3r_ wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. Why are employers entitled to cheap labor?

The same reason that landlords are entitled to expensive rent, doctors to high salaries, and colleges to high tuition. Its the market rate for those things. I would say there are much better second order effects from focusing on bringing prices down than the second order effects of focusing on forcing employers to pay more.

"Its the market rate for those things. "

I don't think you can say that when they're the ones who set those rates. Especially when they constantly complain about not being able to find qualified workers.

"I would say there are much better second order effects from focusing on bringing prices down than the second order effects of focusing on forcing employers to pay more."

Maybe, maybe not. But that's not an argument for not increasing wages.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#133

Post by s73v3r_ »

agensaequivocum wrote: post #116
s73v3r_ wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. Why are employers entitled to cheap labor?

True. They're not. Neither are employees entitled to high wages.

Yet, we're in an economy where employers are constantly complaining they can't find workers.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#134

Post by neffy »

rufusroflpunch wrote: post #114
shams93 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goes to show that Obama did much better than he was often given credit for. While Obamacare fell fall short of the medicare for all that is needed by business - imagine not having to worry about covering healthcare for employees for your startup - his overall job of captaining the ship through incredibly hard times was very successful.

This isn't about the President, at least not directly. Obama doesn't deserve credit any more than Bush Jr. deserved credit for navigating us through the .com bust. Since days of Alan Greenspan, the Fed has been inflating us out of recessions, into longer and more unsustainable booms, which are naturally followed by even worse busts. Our economy is like an over-correcting tightrope walker in slow motion. It's teeterin…

That's not actually the case. If you look at the money supply for the US it has a pretty constant growth rate over the last 8 decades - while the Federal Reserve claims to be messing around with the interest rate to control the economy, the actual evidence that this is the case is quite lacking. (Illusion of Control problem)

So yes, it's not about the President, but the nature of control over the financial system is not through the interest rate channel either.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#135

Post by jazzyk »

daxorid wrote: post #120
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc. For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market…

> Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE Tapped out? 1. Kuroda and Draghi are merely taking a breather. BOJ and ECB balance sheets were still growing as recently as April 2018. SNB shows no signs of ending their relentless buying of the QQQs. 2. No global central banks are prevented from restarting QE or QE-like programs at any time of their choosing. The very second deflation again be…

The BOJ will eventually run out of domestic bonds to buy (at around 50% now) They also hold almost 80% of japanese ETFs.

What happens when they buy all 100% of ETFs and bonds? Venezuela?

https://www.japanmacroadvisors.com/page/category/economic-in...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/wtf-chart-day-boj-...

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#136

Post by 49531 »

Veelox wrote: post #122
s73v3r_ wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. Why are employers entitled to cheap labor?

The same reason that landlords are entitled to expensive rent, doctors to high salaries, and colleges to high tuition. Its the market rate for those things. I would say there are much better second order effects from focusing on bringing prices down than the second order effects of focusing on forcing employers to pay more.

I don't think the market explains most of those things. College tuition isn't because there is a short supply of educators and high supply of people wanting to be educated. There's not much scarce about it. I would argue that tuition increases because we've streamlined student loans and marketed college as a tool of mobility. Doctor pay is also highly abstracted from something like "market forces". Rent prices are probably the closest thing to a commodity determined by market.

Also, forcing employers to pay more is actually a supply/demand conundrum. If you want to buy unskilled labor for $8/hr but the going rate is $15/hr you're not going to have much luck.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#137

Post by mc32 »

brlewis wrote: post #74
spir wrote: post #47

This article seems to use the terms "unemployed" and "jobless" interchangeably. People who stop searching for jobs (eg. due to despondence or poor health) are excluded from the official unemployment rate, yet they are jobless. On a recent EconTalk, Edward Glaeser, the Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics at Harvard, said, in their recent sample, 11.9% of U.S. men aged 25-55 have been jobless for over 12 mont…

The first sentence in the article implies the second sentence in your comment. This morning, the Labor Department announced that the national unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent in June for good reasons, as hundreds of thousands more Americans sought work.

If they this is true, this will be amazing. For too long we have sold out the American worker to unfair trade and offshoring.

It’s great to see our workers in neglected sectors of the economy have a chance to get back in.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#138

Post by skookumchuck »

canada_dry wrote: post #101
shams93 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goes to show that Obama did much better than he was often given credit for. While Obamacare fell fall short of the medicare for all that is needed by business - imagine not having to worry about covering healthcare for employees for your startup - his overall job of captaining the ship through incredibly hard times was very successful.

This. Sadly, it's highly likely that the current administration will - of course take credit - but more importantly - reap all the rewards (i.e. votes) in the next federal election. I still am amazed at how Obama pulled the US from the brink of utter financial collapse shortly after taking office. Hopefully the next incoming administration will be as lucky.

If the market goes up under Trump, Obama gets the credit. If the market goes down under Trump, Trump gets the blame.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#139

Post by neffy »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #88
User23 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc. For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market…

Er, no. 25 years ago we had Wall Street championing computer backed loan securitization, and repackaging of the those instruments into CDO's etc. That led over time to the subprime loans - as by creating the means of providing more debt instruments, Wall Street them had to find more borrowers. Which didn't end well - it never does. QE was done to stop the financial system imploding when those loans defaulted.

To explain the deflation story especially over the last 4 or 5 years, you need to look at the drop in Oil Prices - which as you point out, is primarily due to fracking and the US going from the #1 oil importer in the world to a small exporter. I wouldn't call the export aspect major statistically, but the change in oil trade terms certainly is.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#140

Post by duxup »

sbjs wrote: post #4

"For the first time in recorded history, the number of job openings is higher than the number of people looking for a job." So what? If there's a thousand Node developers like me looking for work, and a thousand job openings for dentists, that's a mismatch. You may say beggars can't be choosers, but do they expect Node developers who went through CS courses to throw that away and take dentist courses?

Amen. Try just breaking into it in a world where entry level is 3 years experience minimum.
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