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Say Hello to Full Employment

theatlantic.com

111–120 of 348 posts

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#111
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because most companies aren’t just looking for “developers”. They are looking for developers who know “X”. The companies that are willing to hire someone who is not a perfect fit are going to usually pay a lot less.

That's... basically the opposite of true.

Outside of Silicon Valley in the rest of the country -- look at the job reqs.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#112
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There are not a lot of welders sitting around looking for work." That's a good thing. Welding is hard to learn and takes a lot of practice to get right. There shouldn't be people sitting around idle with that skill. Ask employers who are whining about a shortage of skilled labor "how many people do you have in training right now?"

And ask what they're paying. When an employer says they can't find anyone qualified, it's usually because they're not willing to pay enough. There is always someone qualified.

truth

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#113
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Really? It's fairly common advice to store an emergency fund in something akin to a savings account (or at least something with FDIC backing) That’s where I have my emergency fund (earning nearly zero interest of course). If OP knows of some other type of account with enough liquidity to use as an emergency fund AND generates significant interest, you have my full attention!

allybank, capital one savings, personalsavings.americanexpress.com, and some others all offer >= 1% interest now. Some are >= 2% that I've run across. Still lower than inflation, but better than .001% Increased fed fund rates and tapering off QE has been having effects. Retail customers generally are unaware of this, so retail banks are still able to not pay any actual interest. A lot of the weirdness in the market (…

Some will survive, many won't.

how precarious is it? any thoughts/guesstimates on the percentage that will fail because of higher rates?

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#114
post #65

We're also 9 years away from the end of the last recession. The longest we've gone without a recession in the past 100 years is 10 years.

Goes to show that Obama did much better than he was often given credit for. While Obamacare fell fall short of the medicare for all that is needed by business - imagine not having to worry about covering healthcare for employees for your startup - his overall job of captaining the ship through incredibly hard times was very successful.

This isn't about the President, at least not directly. Obama doesn't deserve credit any more than Bush Jr. deserved credit for navigating us through the .com bust. Since days of Alan Greenspan, the Fed has been inflating us out of recessions, into longer and more unsustainable booms, which are naturally followed by even worse busts. Our economy is like an over-correcting tightrope walker in slow motion. It's teetering back and forth further every time and you know at some point this whole thing is coming down, it's just a matter of when.

To use a different metaphor, the Fed and the Presidents are playing a game of musical chairs with their successors and no one wants to be the one standing when the music stops.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#115
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

Is it called the Wells Fargo effect now? When you optimize for a number, you'll get that number -- and it will deceive you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#116
post #76
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, how about instead of requiring employers to pay more we reduce the cost housing, medicine, and schooling which are the biggest drains on people expenses.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. Why are employers entitled to cheap labor?

True. They're not. Neither are employees entitled to high wages.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#117
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

Is it called the Wells Fargo effect now? When you optimize for a number, you'll get that number -- and it will deceive you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#118
post #2

The national unemployment rate has always been political fodder and not a good indicator to the heath of people employed. Statistical smoke and mirrors considering they do not count people who've stopped looking for work because they cannot find it, those who are under-employed, or those who are earning less this year compared to last due to inflation and wage stagnation.

Not to mention all those job posting that aren't openings at all: the ones that never ever higher anyone despite getting hundreds of applicants.

yeah. that's mostly how i interpret a number of suspiciously durable job postings i see on sites like LinkedIn and Glassdoor.

either that or the working conditions are so bad that there's a high turnover.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#119
post #36
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> those who are earning less this year compared to last due to inflation and wage stagnation. The article discusses this briefly: > The trucking industry is instructive here: Trade groups have argued that it is facing a shortfall of 51,000 workers, yet businesses have not yet shown much willingness to cut hours, boost pay, and improve conditions to lure workers in. Indeed, across the economy, companies have shown a r…

one of the reasons for reluctance to boost pay could be the fact that profit margins of trucking companies have decreased in recent years despite increasing demand for their services. Also they have found a way to enable illegal immigrants to drive trucks which gives another source to companies to keep trucker wages low. I am an immigrant and know so many guys (from my country) who could not find any other job (becau…

why have trucking profit margins decreased?

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#120
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc. For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market…

> Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE

Tapped out?

1. Kuroda and Draghi are merely taking a breather. BOJ and ECB balance sheets were still growing as recently as April 2018. SNB shows no signs of ending their relentless buying of the QQQs.

2. No global central banks are prevented from restarting QE or QE-like programs at any time of their choosing. The very second deflation again becomes a threat, you can bet your ass that Powell, Kuroda, and Draghi will step on the gas.

"Tapped out" implies limits to the volume of beer in the keg. Central banks have no limits. It is extremely trivial to begin printing money again if these governors/presidents will it so.

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