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Say Hello to Full Employment

theatlantic.com

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Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#81

Post by avarun »

scarface74 wrote: post #71
shados wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your thousand "node developers" aren't at least willing to drop the "node" part (assuming there was saturation in that segment) to use their skills in other languages/environment...then they probably have a problem. (I know that wasn't really your point since you were comparing with something more different like dentists...but the fact that the example specifically said "node developer" instead of just developer i…

Because most companies aren’t just looking for “developers”. They are looking for developers who know “X”. The companies that are willing to hire someone who is not a perfect fit are going to usually pay a lot less.

That's... basically the opposite of true.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#82

Post by bobthepanda »

spir wrote: post #47

This article seems to use the terms "unemployed" and "jobless" interchangeably. People who stop searching for jobs (eg. due to despondence or poor health) are excluded from the official unemployment rate, yet they are jobless. On a recent EconTalk, Edward Glaeser, the Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics at Harvard, said, in their recent sample, 11.9% of U.S. men aged 25-55 have been jobless for over 12 mont…

Does that take into account the incarcerated? From Wikipedia:

> In total, 6,899,000 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail, or prison) in 2013 – about 2.8% of adults (1 in 35) in the U.S. resident population.

It's very difficult to find work with a criminal record in the US.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#84

Post by walshemj »

Lol in todays Investors Chronical (weekly version of the FT for investors) there was an article discussing the Philips curve - it commented that the official unemployment rate is of by about 2x that actual rate in the states and not much better in the UK.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#85

Post by tzahola »

sbjs wrote: post #52
pkaye wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> masters degree in pharma Is that a pharmacist degree? Don't those need a PhD equivalent to be most beneficial?

It may be a PhD for pharmacist, yeah. We lost touch a few years ago when they moved away, but he went to school for something like 10 years. So I think it is a PhD. But there were no jobs. Last I heard, even the job he has now doesn't cover insurance, so he pays for that himself and they're still living like he works at Burger King.

Why didn’t he learn JavaScript?

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#86

Post by throwawaymath »

User23 wrote: post #83
saudioger wrote: post #7

We're also 9 years away from the end of the last recession. The longest we've gone without a recession in the past 100 years is 10 years.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

But it is a reasonable indicator. In the absence of superior evidence, it is better to intelligently work from past data than it is to throw darts.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#87

Post by refoundglory »

tmpz22 wrote: post #72
spir wrote: post #47

This article seems to use the terms "unemployed" and "jobless" interchangeably. People who stop searching for jobs (eg. due to despondence or poor health) are excluded from the official unemployment rate, yet they are jobless. On a recent EconTalk, Edward Glaeser, the Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics at Harvard, said, in their recent sample, 11.9% of U.S. men aged 25-55 have been jobless for over 12 mont…

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

Nonsense. It’s a complicated set of information that people try and reduce to a single number. If you want to actually discuss it you need to start by learning that there are multiple official unemployment rates.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#88

Post by joefranklinsrs »

User23 wrote: post #83
saudioger wrote: post #7

We're also 9 years away from the end of the last recession. The longest we've gone without a recession in the past 100 years is 10 years.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yup, you also want to look at macroeconomic conditions around the world, tech trends, demographics, etc.

For example, 10 years ago we had quantitative easing done by US/Europe, which led to subprime loans. Now, all of the major economies around the world is tapped out with QE, so deflation is the theme going forward

Also, 10 years ago the dollar prime rate was 0%. Now it's close to 2%. That drives the emerging market capital outflow back to United States, since there is a great need to pay back dollar-denominated loans before rates go up even higher . This means as opposed to 10 years ago where there was capital diffusion from US into the emerging markets, now there's capital consolidation back into US, leading to great FDI for US.

10 years ago, US had the dual threat of energy crisis and offshore/globalization. today, US is the major oil/energy exporter, and robotics/automation/tariffs is bringing factories back to US.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#89

Post by ryandrake »

jbronn wrote: post #79
ryandrake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Really? It's fairly common advice to store an emergency fund in something akin to a savings account (or at least something with FDIC backing) That’s where I have my emergency fund (earning nearly zero interest of course). If OP knows of some other type of account with enough liquidity to use as an emergency fund AND generates significant interest, you have my full attention!

Money market funds have significant yield compared to banks; the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) has a current yield of 1.81% and is used as default settlement account on Vanguard brokerage accounts (easy to transfer in and out from). If you can hold off on needing the funds for a year, then US I-Bonds can be purchased from TreasuryDirect. I-bond rates are adjusted semi-annually so they always yield more t…

Thanks jbronn and sibling commenters. Lots to look into. I have the e-fund in my local credit union's money market and always just assumed that would be the best I could get. I-bonds seem to be a good compromise for non-emergency savings that don't have to be liquid.

Re: Say Hello to Full Employment

#90

Post by User23 »

throwawaymath wrote: post #86
User23 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

But it is a reasonable indicator. In the absence of superior evidence, it is better to intelligently work from past data than it is to throw darts.

No, it isn't. Throwing darts is probably actually a better way to make predictions about a stochastic process than naive chartism.
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