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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#311
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pretty strong words from someone who doesn't provide any evidence

Only evidence is every other report of burst production rates ever, but yeah, I am sure this time is different.

Given the tendency to sprint at the end of a quarter, what do you think the average for this next quarter is going to be?

Where will production rates fall in the next few weeks compared to this almost-5000-a-week sprint?

At what point do you consider the report of weekly production numbers to be fraud? Whose definition are you using? Which court will back you up?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#312
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > > They timed production to maximize federal tax credits for US consumers. This is what is confusing me: if the credits are timed to domestic sales (so international sales don’t affect the timing of the tax credit phase out) what does this have to do with production?

If timed right, they have 6 months to sell cars after the 200k cutoff. Some people say they have been storing some cars and not selling them along with selling more overseas so that all the cars produced (and sold, but with the reservation backlog, this is the same thing for now) for the next six months can get the tax credit. It has to do with production because you can't have sales of cars that don't exist.

> It has to do with production because you can’t have sales of cars that don’t exist

Rather, you don’t want to rush to produce vehicles you don’t want to deliver quite yet. You want to get to maximum output at the same time the timer starts on federal tax credits phasing out (which, keep in mind, would’ve happened without Model 3 production due to 2k/week Model S and X production).

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#313

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#314
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am surprised to see this type of argument on HN of all places. One of the primary goals of any start up is to either create a new market or to serve a market that an incumbent is failing to properly serve. You can't just assume that because a company like Toyota hasn't done any of these things yet that there is no potential to gain from them. There are countless reasons why traditional powers fail to innovate and a…

GM/Toyota have the resources to start operating in the same markets that Tesla has ambitions for. And they are certainly keeping an eye on Tesla's actions. After watching what Tesla is doing, they have chosen not to invest those resources even though if they did, they would beat Tesla at its own game quite easily because they eclipse it both in capital and experience. Either their analysts are wrong and failing to se…

Using this logic every start up would fail as soon as they showed their business model could lead to success and a bigger company swooped in a with their overwhelming capital and experience.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most people don't care about EV right now > Americans are buying SUVs and crossovers right now Tesla is building SUV EVs. Other makers are planning to.

They currently build a luxury SUV, yes. Tell me when they make one people can actually afford.

As the price of oil continues to climb, EVs become more affordable than internal combustion vehicles. Seems like a poor time to drop your sedan production in favor of SUVs with oil prices climbing, considering Americans are already changing their behavior due to existing price momentum at the pump.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#316
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I agree with you, but we're talking about a delay of two weeks, not years. That's how long it will take to make up the shortfall. Anyway, Teslas are overpriced and of questionable quality.

The original deadline for 5k production was in December . It's more than 2 weeks.

The delay for the people who placed order are not same as delay to get to 5K target.

If I am 100,000 in queue, then car should have originally taken 20 weeks at 5000 cars per week. Now it will take 20.62 weeks at 4850 per week.

That is a delay of few days.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#317

I can’t give up my Model 3. Driving any Tesla car is a dopamine hit. You really have to try and drive them to experience it and you’ll be hooked. Many people don’t realize what a refreshing and tremendous difference a smooth and powerful torque curve gives. Seriously forget all the noise about Elon Musk. Try and drive an electric car, which are by far still smoother than gear-shifting gas powered cars, and then try a…

Exactly this. I drive a Chevy Spark EV, which is based on the worlds least exciting car ... and it’s brilliant! I would never buy another gas car, they just don’t drive well. And yet we hear all this dribble about panel gaps and the stitching on the seat leather. I never knew there were so many so willing to look so silly in public.

Panel gaps say a lot about construction quality, and how well it will hold up going forward.

And if paying $60K+ for a car, I would expect something with amenities of a $60K+ car, not something with terrible ergonomics (touchscreen, right...) and missing features that a $30K Hyundai has.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s a good question to ask, but it doesn’t mean the milestone was meaningless. Several months ago this would have been unthinkable, and the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway.

> the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway. Wasn't it in multiple letters to shareholders? It is literally an update to debtors on the company's position, far from arbitrary. Were Tesla required to give an estimate? Nope. But doing so may be used to attract further investment into the company, so it is far from innocent.

> Wasn't it in multiple letters to shareholders? It is literally an update to debtors on the company's position, far from arbitrary.

Debtors are people who owe you money. The word you are probably looking for is “creditors”, who are people you owe money (e.g., corporate bondholders.)

But, while it's closer, stockholders aren't those, either.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#319
Hitting 5000 Model 3 Units in a single surge week is an anomaly, until it becomes a repeatable and sustainable pattern.

And a pattern that includes low/no rework, because building 5000 units a week is one metric, building 5000 high quality units with no expensive rework is another metric entirely.

Questions:

Why would someone work in a non air conditioned tent under high stress when they could earn the equivalent wage working across the road in an air conditioned McDonalds?

What impact will the major step down in Solar City/Tesla have in commingled Tesla finances?

Why is Bloomberg’s Tesla tracker showing a fast flattening(rather than accelerating) production trend?

Back in 2016 at GSB we were supposed to get 80 minutes with Musk in class, but it turned into possibly the first “sleep at the end of the factory line” narratives.

Am I the only one who things a fancy tent is a modern equivalent of a Potemkin Vilage?

Fast, cheap, good.

Pick one today, maybe two later.

I find Tesla requiring $1000 deposit holders to contribute an additional $2500( for a combined $3500 converted into an advance payment no longer deposit) interesting.

At Amazon in the very early days we had 100% float from publishers for 30-60 days for a 20% gross profit operation.

Tesla’s attempt at the same is 5% float for 3-6 months for a -20% net profit operation.

It’s like using a single dish sponge to absorb a negative cashflow tsunami.

Making stuff is hard. Making stuff at industrial scale is super duper hard.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#320
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GM/Toyota have the resources to start operating in the same markets that Tesla has ambitions for. And they are certainly keeping an eye on Tesla's actions. After watching what Tesla is doing, they have chosen not to invest those resources even though if they did, they would beat Tesla at its own game quite easily because they eclipse it both in capital and experience. Either their analysts are wrong and failing to se…

Using this logic every start up would fail as soon as they showed their business model could lead to success and a bigger company swooped in a with their overwhelming capital and experience.

Many do, for that exact reason.

If you ever pitch your startup idea to a VC, you're expected to explain how you're going to deal with this risk.

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