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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#241

Post by philipodonnell »

aplummer wrote: post #190
austenallred wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me. Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they…

Yeah agree, I see no difference between 4850 and 5000 - people are so hung up in other comments on calling this a failure. It shows it’s possible, the rocket just missed the landing a bunch of times, nobody cares about that now.

Yeah, but this is sort of like if SpaceX said their goal was to ship a big chunk of rock to the moon on two rockets within a week. But no matter how hard they tried, they just couldn't get it all on two rockets, so as time was running out they built a third rocket out of spare parts from the first and launched them so they would land just in time and claim their goal. "See, we have shown that it is possible!" they would exclaim.

Except, I might say, you said you could do it with two indoor assembly lines but you needed a third outdoor line at full capacity, so you didn't show anything. We have no time to build more indoor space and we can't just keep building assembly lines in tents out of spare parts, man, they break down, it has to work with two indoor assembly lines so they will work long-term. You still need a 50% improvement in your assembly speed before you can take down that tent!

Plus, even though you had an third rocket when you assured us 2 was plenty, one of the rockets was 5 hours late. A whole extra rocket and still late?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#242

Post by gleenn »

TAForObvReasons wrote: post #227
slg wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's best case scenario is much more than an automaker. They also have hopes of being an energy company, a battery company, a transportation company, and a logistics company. There is still a lot of debate whether any of those will actually become profitable (and I think 2020 is a very aggressive timeline for any of this to happen), but there are huge potential revenue streams for Tesla that simply don't exist for…

Toyota or Ford or any other car company can enter any of those fields, either directly or through investment. That they choose not to probably indicates that the risk/reward doesn't make sense for them, and they probably aren't worth that much if Tesla manages to pivot. They chose not to play in EVs until recently, for example, because the market appetite wasn't there

You gotta hand it to Elon for stirring the appetite for EVs though. What makes you think he can't do similar things in other markets?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#243

Post by threeseed »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #229
gizmo wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should Tesla be worth 600B if they produce 2 million cars a year? Toyota makes 10M cars per year and has a market cap of less than 300B. Future growth is already baked into Tesla's current valuation of 60B. They're not making any money today (in fact they're losing billions) but they have a high market cap because they might become profitable years from now. Once (if) they become a mature car manufacturer their v…

I suspect that investors are looking at Tesla to be highly automated and have a high return on capital. There's also the hype so it keeps on going up looking for the last fool that buys before the stock's true value is found. It's easier to buy the stock than to figure out its future value. I think Tesla won't be just a car company. Eventually, they will be a company with multiple branches in the same idea as Alphabe…

Musk himself said they made mistakes in trying to automate everything when manual approaches work better. And all cars made today are highly automated anyway so not sure why this is a unique advantage.

More and more Tesla is looking like a traditional car company. Especially as the traditional car makers are moving aggressively into EV.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#244

Post by threeseed »

njarboe wrote: post #139
sremani wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The third scenario seems 40% until you realize that 2 million Model 3s per year @ average price of 45K are being sold. I am not a car market place expert, $45K cars do not usually move in those numbers. edit: For reference, check the number of cars moved. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276419/best-selling-cars...

If these $45k cars are fully automatic (a big if for sure), then $45k will be a bargain price and would probably capture at least half the new car market.

This is frankly delusional thinking.

(a) Tesla aren't the leaders in the self driving car space. Waymo arguably is, (b) almost all of the car makers have self driving car programs and most importantly (c) why would the traditional car makers just sit back, do nothing and allow Tesla to eat up the entire market ?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#245

Post by jedieaston »

jjeaff wrote: post #164
austenallred wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me. Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they…

>I see Teslas everywhere now. Meaning you live in one of 4 coastal cities. Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

I see them often in north florida. They aren't as common as other luxury sedans, but I see them about as often as Pontiacs, which is to say not everywhere but a lot.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#246

Post by threeseed »

gleenn wrote: post #242
TAForObvReasons wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota or Ford or any other car company can enter any of those fields, either directly or through investment. That they choose not to probably indicates that the risk/reward doesn't make sense for them, and they probably aren't worth that much if Tesla manages to pivot. They chose not to play in EVs until recently, for example, because the market appetite wasn't there

You gotta hand it to Elon for stirring the appetite for EVs though. What makes you think he can't do similar things in other markets?

Because he is overcapitalised with his existing projects.

Simple as that really.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#247

Post by dlp211 »

scarejunba wrote: post #191
woodandsteel wrote: post #166

You know, when the Model 3 came out and terrible production difficulties meant they were producing only 200 cars a month, the Tesla-is-a-scam people told us that the company would never get production much above that. But actually it has been improving production at a steady rate, and is now at least close to the promised 5,000 a month. So the Tesla-is-a-scam believers were quite wrong.

TSLA has been public a long time. The guys who shorted it are losing money. The guys who say it's a scam but don't short it are probably bullshitting.

Or don't believe you can time the market. You can be bearish on a company and still think shorting it would be a disaster. The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#248

Post by inferiorhuman »

aphextron wrote: post #31
chrisper wrote: post #4

Does quality match the quantity here? I remember Tesla having lots of quality issues (misaligned doors etc)

Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

> Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

Well, Musk himself said that the cars being made in the tent are higher quality.

> “It does everything that the other assembly lines do but with fewer people, lower labor costs and much higher uptime,” he said. “Our unit cost for vehicles is lower on that line than on the other lines, and we’re seeing higher initial quality.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/30/business/tesla-factory-mu...

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#249

Post by pooya13 »

Leave it to CNBC and HN to take such a success story by Tesla and turn it on its head to call it a failure. 1- Emphasizing the 5hr delay as opposed to the almost 5k figure WHEN THEY THEMSELVES SAID A FEW MONTHS AGO THAT TESLA WON'T PRODUCE MORE THAN 2k PER WEEK 2- Accusing Tesla of having low production quality in their tent line without any evidence 3- Criticizing Tesla for not being able to produce performance and dual versions, then when they do criticizing them for selling those before cheaper options when that is what any sane company would do 4- ... Honestly it is baffling to me that you guys keep being proven wrong over and over again, yet you keep insisting that Tesla will fail. If you really believe Tesla is doomed I suggest you start shorting them (and let me know how it works out for you!).

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#250

Post by ec109685 »

philipodonnell wrote: post #54

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

They built almost $250M worth of cars in a week, which is a pretty large number (assuming avg selling price is 50k).
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