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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

cnbc.com

141–150 of 384 posts

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#141

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

> When it was clear they would miss again, they put up a third production line in a canvas tent, which the NYT quoted as "never heard anything like this ever" using what Musk tweeted as "scrap we had in warehouses" to build the cars.

I'm a software guy. Can somebody explain to me how you can build a high-tech auto production line from "scrap"?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#142
post #102
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This means they're now making about 7,000 vehicles total per week (S+X+3), which means they'll make more vehicles in the next 12 months than they have made in the previous 10 years. I'd say they're ramping pretty fast! EDIT: 7,000 per week, not per month, thanks below.

Tesla pulled people from the S&X lines to reach their 5000 Model 3 goal. No way they also produced 2000 S&X cars in the past 7 days. In addition, their current death march schedule isn't sustainable. They won't come close to producing 7k cars in any week in July. Tesla needs to spend billions in capex in order to get to 5000 M3 and beyond if they want to produce at a sustainable pace with acceptable quality. Billions…

Musk just tweeted out: "7000 cars, 7 days"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1013519243030253570

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#143
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then he willed it to land standing up. On a barge. In the ocean. And an assembly line. In a tent. From a bunch of scraps.

It's starting to sound like the first chapter in the old testament haha

I was thinking more the first Iron Man movie

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#144
post #142
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla pulled people from the S&X lines to reach their 5000 Model 3 goal. No way they also produced 2000 S&X cars in the past 7 days. In addition, their current death march schedule isn't sustainable. They won't come close to producing 7k cars in any week in July. Tesla needs to spend billions in capex in order to get to 5000 M3 and beyond if they want to produce at a sustainable pace with acceptable quality. Billions…

Musk just tweeted out: "7000 cars, 7 days" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1013519243030253570

I stand corrected. Thanks for the update.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#145
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.

Can you quote the text here? For the life of me I can’t find the section you’re referencing. I’ve heard the “timing production to match tax credit” thing before and it doesn’t make sense to me, hence why I’m trying to track down the primary source.

The way the tax credit works is that a car company's customers get $7500 US tax credit for the first 200k Tesla type electric cars. Then begins the phase out. First the $7500 tax credit remains for the rest of the quarter when the 200k US sales was hit and the following quarter (so between 3 and 6 months). Then the tax credit goes in half for 2 quarters and then 1/4 the original for another 2 quarters. Seems strange to have a variable length phase out on the full amount but maybe the people who wrote the bill couldn't envision a company selling so many cars in a quarter that when in the quarter the company passed the 200k marker would be something the company would focus on.

Tesla is near the 200k mark and has been holding back domestic sales so to hit it at the beginning of a quarter (i.e now).

Edit: Here is a link to the official explanation of the credit in glorious IRS legalese (https://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB#NOT-2009-89).

Relevant quote from the IRS to this discussion:

"The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period."

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The third scenario seems 40% until you realize that 2 million Model 3s per year @ average price of 45K are being sold. I am not a car market place expert, $45K cars do not usually move in those numbers. edit: For reference, check the number of cars moved. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276419/best-selling-cars...

If these $45k cars are fully automatic (a big if for sure), then $45k will be a bargain price and would probably capture at least half the new car market.

They're not. They have the same lane keeping and autimatic cruise control as the average $45k car.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#147
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you clarify, did Tesla announce this, or are you announcing this?

Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.

The word “tax” doesn’t even appear on the page when I search for it.

Are you on a different page?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#148
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bloomberg's chart of Tesla Model 3 production[1] shows very low production rates in early June, around 1000. Maybe they saved some parts up for end of quarter. Let's see what happens over the next month. A well-run production line produces about the same number of units per week. Tesla's weekly numbers are all over the place. Their cost per unit has to be very high, because the cost of running the plant is roughly co…

They timed production to maximize federal tax credits for US consumers.

Couldn't they just ship cars overseas? Or wait until the end of June to ship them?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#149

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

So when musk just tweeted 7000 cars in 7 days, you’re saying you have information proving he’s committing some form of fraud? Could you elaborate? This is going to be a huge story and it looks like you’ll be the one to break it, which is pretty exciting.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#150

I can’t give up my Model 3. Driving any Tesla car is a dopamine hit. You really have to try and drive them to experience it and you’ll be hooked. Many people don’t realize what a refreshing and tremendous difference a smooth and powerful torque curve gives. Seriously forget all the noise about Elon Musk. Try and drive an electric car, which are by far still smoother than gear-shifting gas powered cars, and then try a…

Tesla is not the only brand that creates electric cars.

This is all about Elon making clames he could not make true.

The danger for Tesla is that people don't want to wait for broken promises anymore and will choose another brand.

Edit: for example the Jaguar I-PACE might be very competitive.

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