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Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

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Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#111

Post by HeadsUpHigh »

danso wrote: post #70
aae42 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But do you see how all of the comments spin this to be bad news? "Tesla needs money, that's why they're opening the floodgates, they're hemorrhaging money!"

Are you arguing that Tesla is not losing money? Just a couple weeks ago they had a 9% workforce reduction to “reduce costs and become profitable”. The company has only had 2 profitable quarters in its history, and had record losses in its most recent quarter.

According to Musk's tweets( which is arguably a weak measure) Tesla is more or less right on the verge of being cash flow positive and won't need more money raised. Don't discount the billions in shorts that have a lot of power to bias the public.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#112

Post by jacquesm »

_ph_ wrote: post #110
jacquesm wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, in that case you'll be lining up with the rest of the creditors and I'd assume you will get back nothing at all or pennies on the dollar at best. You're playing bank. Hot tip: don't buy cars that are not in front of you and that you can walk around, only buy cars from manufacturers with long term stability to ensure that the vehicle you've bought will function during its economic life in your hands.

Technically speaking, aren't Tesla and Ford the only two American car companies, who haven't ever gone bankrupt? :)

Ask me next year around this time.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#113

Post by cptskippy »

KallDrexx wrote: post #93
brightball wrote: post #92

In the electric space it seems like it's going to be Tesla and GM for the foreseeable future. None of Tesla's other competitors are putting out anything remotely close to the Volt and Bolt.

What about Nissan? The Leaf seems to be doing well even though it gets ignored in these conversations.

Leaf owner here...

The Leaf is mostly ignored because unlike the Model 3 and Bolt, it is a compromise due to it's limited range and it is not a true replacement for an ICE car. For normal usage it's fine but exceptions like mid-day doctor appointments or spontaneous errands after work are sometimes impossible.

The first generation Leafs had a 24kWh battery with an EPA MPGe range rating of 84 miles. The second generation 2018 model has a 40kWh battery with an EPA MPGe rage rating of 151 miles.

The first generation base models of the Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt have EPA MPGe ranges of 220 and 238 miles respectively.

That might not seem like a big deal and an 84 mile range should be fine for most people most of the time. The problem is that the 84 mile range is not entirely accurate.

My Leaf typically reports my range as 90+ miles and my 25 mile commute can use anywhere from 28-42 miles of that reported range. So if I drive to work and back without charging in between then my remaining range is 8-34 miles. That's ok unless I get home from work and my kid needs to go to the music store 5 miles away to buy a replacement reed for their oboe.

Additionally Nissan recommends not charging above 80% or letting the battery fall below 20% to increase the longevity of the battery as over/under charging can degrade the Lithium Ion Cells. So basically they're telling you not to charge your car past 80% and to stop driving when you hit 20% which means they recommend you only ever use 60% of your battery (50 miles).

In comparison, Chevy and Tesla both have built-in buffer capacity in their batteries that's unavailable to you. This buffer prevents you from over/under charging your battery. Because of this buffer you're able to utilize the full advertised range of the vehicles without fear of battery degradation.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#114

Post by ben_w »

compcoffee wrote: post #50
ben_w wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have nothing to compare against, so if I was in the market for a $35k car [1] I’d probably be fine with this. [1] I’d prefer to invest most of the money and have a cheaper second hand car, and if I had enough spare that $35k was pocket change, I’d be more interested in a tiny aircraft or a small liveaboard boat.

> I'd prefer to invest most of the money Is "I don't own a car" the new "I don't own a TV" virtue signalling? Seriously, you are offering up your opinion on a product you admittedly have no knowledge of,and no interest in owning.

Everything humans do, including asking questions about virtue signalling, is virtue signaling.

That said, although I don’t own a car, I didn’t actually say that in my previous post. I’m lucky that where I live, I don’t need to. That situation is likely to change, and I have no intention to build an identity of, or make a virtue out of, either having or not having a car. If that seems contradictory, consider it virtue signaling “flexibility”.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#115

Post by cptskippy »

danso wrote: post #74
jokoon wrote: post #72

I don't really care if Tesla's account balance is ok, as long as it's selling something big and new, it's an improvement. Making electric cars is not just a business, money and accounting doesn't matter at this point. The money side for large projects like this, is an abstraction you cannot focus on. Negative account books will always exist where innovation happens. Forget the money, and try to think what gets made.…

Tesla is a public company. Accounting is very much an important thing, or are you suggesting it’s OK for them to cook the books as long as they do it for a good cause?

I believe he's saying it's ok to operate at a loss as long as you are demonstrably making progress. In this case by building and selling new vehicles in volume.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#116

Post by planteen »

mijamo wrote: post #95
jcranmer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example when Consumer Reports identified a braking issue with the Model 3 Tesla had an OTA software fix in days. What other manufacture would do that, let alone could? Why should that be a good thing? Consider what this means: * Safety-critical systems are not air-gapped. (Granted, Tesla is far from the only offender here). * The fact that the fix was turned around in such a short time would seem to suggest tha…

- As you said, not the only offender here, I would even say air gapped would be the exception - This is wrong, the fact that is was quick to fix does not mean it was easy to find, or even easy to fix. Many softwares have suffered critical problems for ages without being detected, and yet when they are detected they are fixed in a day? - Sure, you can wonder, but this is purely speculative as we have no evidence of an…

> the fact that is was quick to fix does not mean it was easy to find

The issue was easy to find. The root cause may not have been. Vehicle stopping distance is a standard metric. Simple black box system level testing at Tesla should have caught this. Why was nothing done then or why was it a test escape?

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#117

Post by taway0623 »

pg_bot wrote: post #49

I know then tent is getting a lot of criticism from the public but it is a smart move. The tent gives extra space to add more individual steps to the assembly line and humans are best suited for tasks that are rapidly changing. I think someone finally realized that you can have as many steps in the assembly line as you want so long as no single step exceeds your quota divided by the time per day. (i.e. need to make 1…

1. Longer steps can be run in parallel. One step of 24 hours with 1000 in parallel allows 1000 cars per day.

2. If no parallel allowed, 86.4 seconds is the average not the maximum. Longer steps balanced by shorter steps.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#118

Post by jcranmer »

HeadsUpHigh wrote: post #108
nabla9 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within last 1.5 years highly trained and paid people have made something like 5-7 large mistakes in their Model 3 throughput estimates in a row already. Few more is not that surprising. They are constantly facing bottlenecks that take them by surprise while they are learning to mass manufacture. Tesla is small volume luxury car maker that attempts to transfer into mass manufacturer with NIH attitude.

Tesla has had an insane learning curve to climb. Making a car... just think of how many different subsystems exist. A lot of them could be offloaded to contractors but they chose to do as much in house as possible( which also aligns with Musk's character).

Tesla's only been making cars for a decade before they started on the Model 3. So it's understandable that they totally need to learn how to make a car, it's just so hard...

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#119

Post by cptskippy »

smcl wrote: post #47
nabla9 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be more dust, no doubt. Tesla needs desperately money from the orders, they have no choice but take a risk. Some issues may arise later. Tesla plans to fix them later and that's doable because their production volumes are still low and they manufacture only expensive cars. Tesla owners know by now that they get a car that is incredible to drive, has very high quality 'skateboard' but all the normal parts b…

Tesla need to take money from new clients to make their existing clients whole. That's kind of a bad sign...

> Tesla need to take money from new clients to make their existing clients whole.

How did you come to that conclusion? Are there customers who aren't whole? Are there customers who have ordered a Model 3 that wasn't delivered as promised?

Look at it this way...

Tesla is operating at a loss and is reliant on investors to keep it afloat until it becomes profitable. The only way to do that is to demonstrate to investors that you will eventually become profitable by meeting your own schedules, timelines, and sales targets.

Tesla can hit it's 5000 cars a week mark by the end of June but if there aren't customers to deliver those vehicles to then they're not hitting their sales numbers and still fail.

Tesla has said that they're not producing the low end Model 3 and instead focusing on the high margin trim levels. What percentage of reservations are holding out for the low end Model 3? We know there's ~450000 reservations, what percentage are in the US/Canada? Lets pretend it's 50% or 225000. How many of those reservations are holding out for the cheapest model? Lets pretend that to is 50% or 112500. That leaves 112500 reservations who will buy a high trim level Tesla 3.

If Tesla has hit it's 5000 vehicles a week mark and is promising fulfillment in 2-4 months then by the 4 month mark they'll have produced 80000 Model 3s. That's pretty close to the hypothetical 112500 number.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#120

Post by mikestew »

greglindahl wrote: post #25
frgewut wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They say that cars will be delivered in 2 to 4 months. Also ordering costs $2500. I thought it is common to pay full amount upfront upon ordering cars, then wait a month or two for actual delivery.

It is, with the proviso that it's rare for Americans to order a car before it's made -- we mostly buy them "off the lot". Tesla is unusual in that regard.

Nissan Leaf and a Scion xB, both ordered, both paid at the time of delivery, not before. No way I'd pay upfront for something I haven't even driven.
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