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Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

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Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#241
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recommendation, translation, & image classification algorithms are all done with deep-learning; that's considered AI now. There was a time, not all that long ago, when SVMs, Bayesian networks, and perceptrons were considered AI. That's behind the spam filters, predictive keyboards, and most of the search signals. There was a time, a bit longer ago, when beam search and A* were considered AI. That's behind the gam…

This is my point: the term AI has always been BS. It was BS when beam search was AI, it was BS when expert systems were AI, and it is equally as BS when applied to neural networks. It comes to the same thing: the 'AI' tools we use are increasingly good function approximators. That's it. It's still reaching the moon by building successively taller ladders.

I think Judea Pearl would agree with you in part. From an interview in https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/05/machi... :

As much as I look into what’s being done with deep learning, I see they’re all stuck there on the level of associations. Curve fitting. That sounds like sacrilege, to say that all the impressive achievements of deep learning amount to just fitting a curve to data. From the point of view of the mathematical hierarchy, no matter how skillfully you manipulate the data and what you read into the data when you manipulate it, it’s still a curve-fitting exercise, albeit complex and nontrivial.

And

I left the arena to pursue a more challenging task: reasoning with cause and effect. Many of my AI colleagues are still occupied with uncertainty. There are circles of research that continue to work on diagnosis without worrying about the causal aspects of the problem.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#242
post #122
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This works well for IBM generally (the products are shit) but especially well for Watson because it's extremely easy to sell AI without getting bogged down in details. The cynic in me says that every use of the term AI in any capacity is to sell experience and not functionality. When was the last time you used a product billed as 'AI' and thought 'wow, this is a huge game changer'? Siri is cool, but it's ultimately…

> humans can extrapolate and make reliable predictions about the future based on really small sample sizes You severely underestimate the bandwidth of your eyes and ears and other senses, and the volume of your brain's memory (despite it's uber-loosy compression). That's terabytes a day probably, if not big data than I dunno what is. Yeah, 99% of it is thrown away at passing through the first few hundreds of layers o…

You severely underestimate the bandwidth of your eyes and ears and other senses

This is so common there’s a term for it https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#243
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This works well for IBM generally (the products are shit) but especially well for Watson because it's extremely easy to sell AI without getting bogged down in details. The cynic in me says that every use of the term AI in any capacity is to sell experience and not functionality. When was the last time you used a product billed as 'AI' and thought 'wow, this is a huge game changer'? Siri is cool, but it's ultimately…

I use & depend upon plenty of products that are built upon AI - GMail spam filtering & categorized inbox, Google image search, YouTube & Netflix recommendations, cheque OCR at my ATM, predictive keyboards on my phone, Amazon's "people also buy with this product" feature, Google translate, computer opponents in games that I play, and all of the signals that feed into Google Search. The irony is that not one of these b…

I would argue that all of your examples have failed to be anything even remotely resembling AI, just data crunching to fit most use cases. I don't use GMail but I do regularly use Google image search, Translate, YouTube, Netflix and predictive typing via SwitfKey. And IMHO they all suck horribly (SwiftKey still sucks pretty bad after 8 years of learning from me). Google Translate is getting better and I have recently started using first-pass Google Translate before correcting the mistakes... instead of everything by hand. YT/Netflix Recommendations are always bullshit. I wish there was a way to say "never show me anything like this ever again" because I often feel like 90% of the recommendations make absolutely no sense. Sometimes I think that someone else must be logged into my account clicking on things just to mess with my recommendations. I usually spend a minimum of 30 minutes searching, often giving up out of frustration (and I always have an IMDB tab open to check details because all of the IMDB rating plugins for Firefox stop/ped working). Maybe I'm an edge case living outside the U.S.? Are their algorithms only tuned for English-speaking countries?

The most creative, intelligent and least frustrating "AI" I've ever encountered was in some games, such as Dota2 or many years ago F.E.A.R. They were frustrating but only due to unpredictability, even after hundreds of hours of playtime. YouTube and NetFlix AI after hundreds/thousands of hours invested are also very unpredictable and frustrating, but that's the opposite experience I am looking for in those situations.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#245
Haha... now IBM needs to find some nice wording in order to impress clients to continue paying for smoke and mirrors believing in promises that "one day it will be so good". There is no measurable substrate to any of promises and whoever still believes in it, just hides its personal failure to see that on time. Some big clients will continue following "all bets in" method as they are already too exposed to IBM and to admit that they were wrong and naïve as children would mean also losing their nice paid jobs. I am happy that after everything unveils with IBM, their companies will feel a full blow and their investors will see how it looks when you are not keeping your management on a short leash.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the past 10 years I’ve been surprised when anyone smart would join IBM. I understand why people hung on, but why join that dying ship? Now I can’t think of any still there.

Who says IBM is dying? They aren’t anymore (since a long time) at the bleeding edge of research, but they still have a solid consulting and integration business. They also offer decent salaries and good opportunities for sales-oriented technical people. It wouldn’t be my first choice of employer, however I can see how some people would enjoy working there.

Dying may be extreme. Perhaps it’s safer to say that they are in the mode of returning capital to investors rather than growing.

I’m at a large customer of theirs and they are bleeding the customer for every dollar as they get phased out. Very low caliber of services professionals too.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#247

I’m not too surprised, they come by our shop around once a year wanting to sell Watson analytics, and because ML is a buss word in the political layer (our upper leadership) we politely listen. It’s not really great. They can automate the process of finding reports, but the truth is, we have people already doing that and all the reports they’ve been able to find in their POCs were either useless or some we already ha…

>The only people who do it well enough are PHDs This is really untrue. Maybe that's part of your hiring issue.

It’s always cute when people say stuff like that. We’ve tried quite a few and none have delivered any sort of useable quality.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah such classic outsourced third-world contractor output. They are told what to do (by some PM who has no idea) and they do it. If they ever say "uh this doesn't make sense" they are cheaply replaced. I've seen some of this nonsense (though not IBM related): strncpy(dst, src, strlen(src)); dst[strlen(dst)] = '\0';

> outsourced third-world contractor output Do we know that the developers were outsourced or which countries they were from?

Yes, in an inferred way at least. Look at the IBM jobs / careers page and locations. You can see where different types of openings are. Last year I looked at the AI jobs because I was curious where they were doing the work. Mumbai was first in terms of open positions for machine learning, if I recall correctly.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#249
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t make any sense. The way a string is terminated in C is by a null character. ‘\0’ is a mnemonic. strlen() returns the length of a strong. It does this by doing a linear scan down the array until it finds the null, and the returns that index as the length. That line of code does nothing useful. It means, “scan through the array until you find a null, then write a null there.” Which is exactly what you had to…

using strlen(src) is also an amateur mistake, because the whole point of doing that (stncpy family, ensuring dst ends with null) is that dst might not be large enough to fit string from src. It has to be the size of dst, which can only be known at the site of allocation in C (except for a non-clean way of looking at heap metadata).

There’s no reason to believe from these two lines that the memory is insufficiently allocated. It’s just two lines. The point wasn’t to share a safe string copy routine, the point of the post was to illustrate a single mistake.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t make any sense. The way a string is terminated in C is by a null character. ‘\0’ is a mnemonic. strlen() returns the length of a strong. It does this by doing a linear scan down the array until it finds the null, and the returns that index as the length. That line of code does nothing useful. It means, “scan through the array until you find a null, then write a null there.” Which is exactly what you had to…

pace @zeusk: I thought the point was that they didn't know if the dest is long enough to copy source, so they copy as much of it as they can. The reason for the '\0' is in the case that src is shorter than dest. A more explicit way may be to strlen dest > src then just use lenght(src) otherwise use str(dest). But this might actually be more efficient. Edit: And in this case Spolsky doesn't apply because it seems the…

Well...

If dst is larger than src, the strcpy* family of functions will also copy over the null byte.

If dst is shorter than src, and if strlen(src) is used as arg for strncpy then the function will overflow in dst and your null byte will also be outside dst buffer. In hardened environments you wouldn't trust strings to contain null byte if it comes from network or user and use strlcpy with known size of dst then append a null byte at end of dst anyway to ensure it is null terminated.

Using strlen to compare buffer sizes is totally wrong and is the source for many bugs (hint, strlen doesn't actually return size of anything but the distance of the first null byte from the address you provide it).

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