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‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

nytimes.com

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Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#231

Post by panarky »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #78

The difference is that a powerful group of people is enacting policies that have triggered recession/depression in the past and no good historical precedent/academic support for working. It's seems kind of crazy to me we're ignoring that part. We're starting trade wars on multiple fronts, exiting or weakening multilateral alliances (and simultaneous giving an advantage to our global adversaries), and weakening the ba…

Economic growth is strong, wages are rising, unemployment is low, and people are protesting in the streets.

Imagine what happens if the economy gets rekt.

We could be in for some dark and nonlinear times.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#232

Post by saltcured »

matte_black wrote: post #121
throwaway5752 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry for a bit of a meta-reply, but this is kind of the reason for my sadness: there is this sense of isolation/aloofness to your question. The best thing to do is to work hard to prevent this outcome, since it's less than zero sum. I am sorry, but even if I knew your financial situation and goals I wouldn't want to offer investing opinions.

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do to prevent a financial collapse across the nation... I’ve made tons of money from the usual FANG suspects in the past few years, but it’s all unrealized gain. No doubt I’ve thought about selling off every year, but chose instead to continue riding it out, always wondering how much it’s going to take for me to be satisfied. On days like today when FANG stocks are getting beat up, I…

It would be interesting to see an investment model that assumes a basket of historical companies to approximate someone's unrealized compensation over a random period of historical data.

Over 40+ years, consider not just a few current strong companies like Apple and MS, but also many others that have gone through many business cycles or perhaps have ended. IBM, Oracle, Sun, DEC, SGI, Cray, HP, Intel, AMD, ATI, NVIDIA, Maxtor, Seagate, Dell, Gateway... Or, consider other baskets to suit your employer basket: IBM, EDS, CA (tech consulting)... PWC, Arthur Andersen (audit/services)... Sears, Montgomery Wards, JC Penney (mail-order/logistics/merchants)...

I think many people make the mistake of "this time it's different" or "I'm different". My cohort saw many people go through the dot-com bubble and it sure seemed random as to which ones won a lottery and which ones got only a t-shirt in the end.

In my view, the only rational strategy would be to continually convert your employer compensation and reinvest into the diversified portfolio you would otherwise consider prudent if you weren't in that particular job. Anything less than that, and you are making an implicit gamble to time the market while perhaps telling yourself it is a tax optimization.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#233

Post by Nzen »

lpgauth wrote: post #226

Assuming there's a recession coming what is a good investment strategy?

I am an undereducated stranger who hasn't grown a nest egg into millions. I think I've heard the advice of people who have, albiet not reproducibly. + Consider treating what I say, on this NP-Hard problem, as naive misinformation.

It ultimately depends on your time scale and tolerance for paper money variation. I've heard buy low, sell high is good; and, I have twenty or more years to move things around. So, when I notice a recession, I increase my proportion of stocks, on the assumption that they are undervalued. If I were to notice a bubble (unlikely) I would increase my proportion of government backed bonds, to wait until the next recession.

If I were retirement age, and needed to reify that paper into real money, I'd probably divest stocks in favor of government bonds that hold value during the downturn. "Government", on the assumption that they are less likely to default than corporate backed bonds.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#234

Post by xoxogossipgirl »

briandear wrote: post #138
jonknee wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently it's devolving into tariffs on everything. Like Europe's 25% tariff on Harley motorcycles. They're getting hit on both ends too because their inputs are also hit (steel being the big one). Tariff in and tariff out, it's ridiculous.

Actually the tariff is 31%. An increase of 25% over the existing 6% tariff. If Europe is so concerned about tariffs, then why did they have a 6% tariff in the first place? That’s the point of this “trade war” — countries already have tariffs. It’s disingenuous to complain about American tariffs when the EU has built their protectionist model around doing just that. France has a bunch of “protected” industries and the…

We're punishing Canada who has some of the most open markets in the world. Like top ten lowest tariff rates. Don't try to pretend there's any rhyme or reason to this, it's intellectually dishonest.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#235

Post by Johnny555 »

panarky wrote: post #231
throwaway5752 wrote: post #78

The difference is that a powerful group of people is enacting policies that have triggered recession/depression in the past and no good historical precedent/academic support for working. It's seems kind of crazy to me we're ignoring that part. We're starting trade wars on multiple fronts, exiting or weakening multilateral alliances (and simultaneous giving an advantage to our global adversaries), and weakening the ba…

Economic growth is strong, wages are rising, unemployment is low, and people are protesting in the streets. Imagine what happens if the economy gets rekt. We could be in for some dark and nonlinear times.

What is "rekt"?

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#236

Post by fao_ »

Johnny555 wrote: post #235
panarky wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economic growth is strong, wages are rising, unemployment is low, and people are protesting in the streets. Imagine what happens if the economy gets rekt. We could be in for some dark and nonlinear times.

What is "rekt"?

The illiterate (i.e. 'l33t') form of 'wrecked', I believe.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#238

Post by 18pfsmt »

cityhomesteader wrote: post #144
qubex wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism and conspiracy-theory-type reasoning, compounded by the agency fallacy.

> I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism I'm impressed by your naivety. Where's the cynicism? I've worked on wall street/finance and I've read finance publications for decades. It's not cynicism, it's experience. > conspiracy-theory-type reasoning What's the conspiracy? > compounded by the agency fallacy. I'd advise you to give Logic 101 another try. Also look up ad hominem while at it.

>>Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession.

>What's the conspiracy?

According to your first comment, the "big players" are conspiring to cause recessions when they see fit.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#239

Post by george-takei »

DesiLurker wrote: post #145
AndrewDucker wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a plugin for FF and Chrome: https://bypasspaywalls.weebly.com/

my standard PSA: any browser plugin you install has a full clear text view of content on ALL the websites you visit. choose wisely.

Like anyone wants to look at your Muslim goat porn.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#240

Post by fjsolwmv »

Latteland wrote: post #206
codingdave wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the long run, that is always true. Just hold and grow, until you are within 10 years of retiring. Then move to a more conservative position.

Suppose you were planning to retire in 2018, and you sold in 2008 or 2009 after the economy crashed. Bad things would happen. No one knew if or how fast the stock market would come back. Better to sell a little bit over time and move to safer investments. But there are many studies showing no one can time the market.

If you pre-retired in 2008, you enjoyed decades of previous gains, even if you sold at the trough.
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