‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#201

Post by Latteland » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:47 PM UTC

cal5k wrote: post #42

An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.

The NYT article says precisely that recessions happened 6 months to 2 years later in all cases, except in one case where the economy dipped but wasn't officially a recession in the 1960s. This is different than a stopped clock that is eventually right. In the last 50 years we had recessions or at best a very poor economy with almost no growth (only one time avoided a recession by defn) with 6-24 month lead time after negative yield curve.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#202

Post by jadedhacker » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:48 PM UTC

bla2 wrote: post #12

j45 wrote: post #2

Is there a way to see NY times articles? Hn links to NY times always brings up a pay wall.

A bit easier but also more expensive than the other options mentioned: Pay for a NY times subscription.

I did that for a while until I became completely disillusioned with them. They're in the pocket of corporations and the White House (they actually suppress news if the WH doesn't like it). Find a more progressive outlet than them if you want to pay for media. They can certainly use the cash.

EDIT: Here's a recent case of NYT suppressing newsworthy clips: https://theintercept.com/2018/06/20/administration-of-hate-t... Search for "The Daily" in the transcript.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#203

Post by Latteland » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:49 PM UTC

darkerside wrote: post #195

WhompingWindows wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DOW is a very poor indicator of the economy, it's just 30 "chosen" companies that somehow represent the whole US market. You're talking about precision and you use one of the most derided economic metrics.

You're not wrong about that, but I don't think it disproves my point at all. What value exactly are you going to get from predicting recessions within a two year window?

It does kind of poke a whole in your argument because the dow drops companies that aren't growing. So when it actually down there's a tremendous change. Otherwise they drop companies that are hurting, like ge.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#204

Post by chiph » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:50 PM UTC

detaro wrote: post #166

briandear wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why was there a 6% tariff on motorcycles to begin with? That tax wasn’t in response to Trump. That tax was to protect EU industry which is exactly the problem. The EU has long engaged in protectionism — when the US does the same, somehow that’s a scandal? Let’s be intellectually consistent here. All tariffs are bad except in the case of dumping.

And the US has 25% import duty on trucks, why do they have that to begin with? You can play that back-and-forth game quite a bit. I'd be a bit more sympathetic if the US government had asked the EU to remove duties before creating new ones, but that doesn't appear to be the case. And at the same time people complain that it's totally unfair that the Canadians seek to limit imports of some goods from the US...

> 25% import duty on trucks

Commonly known as the "Chicken Tax", this was imposed by LBJ in response to French & German duties on imported chicken meat. Congress lumped light trucks into the bill because LBJ wanted the support of the UAW, who didn't like the importation of the VW Type 2 pickup as well as Japanese utility vehicles.

At the moment, the tax on light trucks is the only remaining part of this bill. And it's pretty toothless as Honda is now building trucks in Alabama, and Ford/GM are building fullsize trucks in Canada & Mexico (which don't get taxed because of NAFTA) yet somehow get classified as domestics.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#205

Post by jadedhacker » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:51 PM UTC

colechristensen wrote: post #23

bla2 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit easier but also more expensive than the other options mentioned: Pay for a NY times subscription.

This is one thing I did to attempt to make a small difference in the current climate, picked a few media outlets I thought were doing a good job and paid for subscriptions. Living in very solidly blue places, nothing else I have done has likely mattered at all.

You can do a lot in blue states/towns, but it involves pushing the Democratic party further left (Medicare for All, Abolish ICE, Affordable housing, and more) if that's your cup of tea.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#206

Post by Latteland » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:51 PM UTC

codingdave wrote: post #64

yellowstuff wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then a year after the lows it was back over 1200, and it's basically been straight up since then. Unless you timed things very accurately you were better off simply holding.

Over the long run, that is always true. Just hold and grow, until you are within 10 years of retiring. Then move to a more conservative position.

Suppose you were planning to retire in 2018, and you sold in 2008 or 2009 after the economy crashed. Bad things would happen. No one knew if or how fast the stock market would come back. Better to sell a little bit over time and move to safer investments. But there are many studies showing no one can time the market.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#207

Post by itgoon » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:55 PM UTC

fokinsean wrote: post #49

tjr225 wrote: post #33

As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust, it will be interesting to have a neck in the game this go around!

Same, I remember how much the last one stressed out my Dad. I was in high school and didn't fully appreciate the significance of what was going on. I'm a bit anxious anticipating the next one, but it's part of the game!

I've been through a few of these, and I disagree with everyone else. It's a game. At least, it's a lot healthier to think of it as a game.

Life is full of ups and downs, some of them economic. Yes, this is just another one. Don't despair, things get better. Value your family and friends, and everything will be okay.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#208

Post by Fnoord » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 10:59 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #153

timr wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even read the link? The year you enter the market is the random variate. It is a simple, uncontroversial fact that the stock market is not guaranteed to return your money over a randomly chosen N-year period. LTBH merely minimizes the chance that you'll lose money; it doesn't eliminate the chance.

It's a fact, folks. Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it. If you believe the stock market guarantees you safe returns, you are wrong. No matter what strategy you use, no matter what outlook you choose, you can lose money in the stock market . Don't invest what you can't afford to lose.

> Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it.

You wrote:

> Did you even read the link? [..]

Which is against HN netiquette:

"Please don't insinuate that someone hasn't read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that."" [1]

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#209

Post by pnathan » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 11:00 PM UTC

TimTheTinker wrote: post #162

pnathan wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. "We're due" is my perspective on bear markets. We've had a bull for a long time now, and there's adequate macro factors that a tipoff into a bear is a fairly reasonable expectation. In other words, it's quite time to make sure your holdings are prepared for a recession.

> make sure your holdings are prepared for a recession How do you do that? If you're market-invested, there's very little chance of actually predicting the timing of the downturn. Perhaps sell while confidence is high and then buy like mad when prices have gone way down? Sounds risky...

> make sure your holdings are prepared for a recession

Make sure your bond / stock / cash / etc holdings are properly balanced. Don't overweight in one area. If you've not paid attention to your risk exposure over the past while, it's a good time to do so!

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#210

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 11:13 PM UTC

"Sure, it seems like a strange time to be worried about recession. Unemployment is at an 18-year low, corporate investment is picking up steam, and consumer spending shows signs of rebounding."

Isn't that always the best time to be worried about recession?