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Bitcoin is a Cult

adamcaudill.com

131–140 of 232 posts

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#131
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Government bonds are stable if you ignore tail risk Nothing is eternal. That doesn’t make everything ephemeral equally risky. Bitcoin is a speculative asset. Speculative assets are volatile by design (you want them to go up). More critically, government bonds’ role as a store of value is ancillary to their core purpose: to enable public deficit spending. > Bitcoin is however similar to a government bond in that it…

The point is not that Bitcoin is a government bond, if that wasn't obvious, but that just because some people said it's a currency and proceeded to build failing businesses on that faulty premise doesn't preclude it having actual, unrelated uses, such as a store of value with a vastly different risk profile than any other asset ever known.

> a store of value with a vastly different risk profile than any other asset ever known

For which there (a) is zero evidence and yet (b) are lots of unsophisticated investors throwing money at. This combination is well known in financial engineering circles, which has had a habit of dreaming up assets with inobservable specialness since the days of John Law.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#132
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple - You can argue Apple, the hardware company, is a cult. The fans are rabid in their support for the company. Often the discussions are not at all civil and in this particular case there is no financial incentive. According to Wikipedia, Apple has sold 1.2 billion+ iPhones. Are you going to tell me that all of those people are going to “rabidly” support Apple? No way. What you are seeing is a very vocal very s…

Not all people in the cryptocurrency space are followers of the cult either, though

Indeed. That was also my point though I didn’t say it explicitly, but probably should have.

What I said applies not only to Apple but to a lot of different groups of people.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did they ban it in Copenhagen and Berlin? In general? Or just not enough demand so they threw it out?

It’s not illegal, it’s just really inconvenient. Today we’ve linked instant payment methods to our credit cards, if the card isn’t rfid enabled on its own. So you just swipe your payment method and you’re done. We even have a banking app that lets you instantly transfer funds between you, between banks as well, for free. Called mobile pay. So smaller stores that can’t afford to have a credit card system, use that. So…

I was more referring to crypto in general ; some are very fast and low fees, but yes I see what you mean. Are you in Berlin or Copenhagen?

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#134

When I first got into bitcoin I thought it could be a wonderful alternative to the current monetary system, I especially hoped it would be more equitably shares. Unfortunately it’s turned out to be as unequally shared as our current wealth is, if not more. Perhaps some kind of coin where everybody in the world is issued the same amount or something.

One idea would be to create a cryptocurrency where the currency supply increases following a Gompertz function rather than a log function. If you could magically guess the right variables so supply approximately followed adoption rate, you'd create a currency where the supply/demand was near enough constant, and the price would hardly change after the market had given it a rate. Lets say you expect demand to double each year for N years, where N is where peak adoption rate occurs, then your function would be 2^y for N years, after which you have a gradual decline in the supply. The earliest adopter who mines for N years would gain at most (assuming equivalent mining power), twice as much as someone who mines during year N only, since each year effectively doubles the entire supply up until N.

The real question is, who would mine for N years when it is basically unprofitable? Since everyone else can have the same mining opportunity and the value is approximately constant. An early adopter would only get up to a 2x advantage over someone joining in year N, but would need to put in N years of mining to get that. Also, if demand does not increase as expected, the currency value will half year on year. Nobody will invest in this kind of currency when there are many others "promising" potential 100x gains by overly rewarding early adopters.

You'd also never actually guess the right rate at which adoption is going to grow, and you'd jinx whatever values you expected by specifying them, because there'd be an attitude of "If I can start mining in year N, and still have essentially the same opportunity as everyone else, I'm not gonna bother investing right now, I'll do it when it's close to the time." As a result, you'd end up with nobody actually participating initially, smart people would invest during peak supply, and everyone else would FOMO as the supply rate is declining, which is effectively the same as happened for Bitcoin.

Of course, the process Bitcoin underwent can't really be repeated. Most altcoins are get rich quick schemes, which utilize the log function of coin supply to pre-mine or whatnot to give the "founders reward," with the expectation that if the currency gains any popularity and has liquid markets, the founders can cash out before anyone realizes their currency is useless.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not illegal, it’s just really inconvenient. Today we’ve linked instant payment methods to our credit cards, if the card isn’t rfid enabled on its own. So you just swipe your payment method and you’re done. We even have a banking app that lets you instantly transfer funds between you, between banks as well, for free. Called mobile pay. So smaller stores that can’t afford to have a credit card system, use that. So…

I'm guessing it's more to do with transaction times than anything. A merchant needs to wait 10, 20 or 30 minutes to get a confirmation in Bitcoin, because he can't be sure there will not be a double-spend of the money until it is confirmed. Technically, this has always been the case, but there was a false belief that 0conf transactions were secure, because Bitcoin clients rejected double-spend attempts by default (as…

Setting up a Bitcoin node in a remote village doesn't "bring banking capability to the entire village". The node doesn't offer a badly-needed credit facility or the ability to turn remittances into local banknotes (at least not without an actual bank account...), the stuff that can be bought with Bitcoins can't be shipped to the village anyway, a foreign language software program that doesn't run on dumbphones certainly isn't an improvement on their existing cash, mobile and IOU payment systems and is an unimaginably awful way for a technically and financially unsophisticated population to store their life savings. It does offer hope to wealthy Westerners who bought Bitcoin in December that they might recover their losses by dumping on the global poor, I guess.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#136
post #85
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well, you may not call Sia successful (a cloud storage network with 200 TB of data being actively stored on it), but it uses blockchain to achieve something that it could not achieve without.

That‘s very little data. And besides it could, of course, be done completely without blockchain even if the data is stored decentralised.

Sia works without any centralized orchestration, enabling you to safely use financially incentivized hosts without needing to know who they are, and allowing you to know that that only get paid if they store your data as promised. The hosts also can be guaranteed that they get paid even if the renter disappears, and you can't achieve those things without a blockchain.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sure about that? Arpanet was created to exchange short messages in case of a nuclear attack on the United States rendered all above ground communication and survivability useless. I hardly consider that a practical use case. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Internet_during_the_Cold_W...

The U.S. government considered it a practical problem. That’s why they paid for it. If it helps, replace “practical problem” with “a problem customers will pay you to solve.” ARPANET had that. Bitcoin, on the other, never had an original sale. It was mined as a curiosity and then jumped from narrative (“currency of the future!”) to narrative (“store of value!”) to narrative (“mostly goes up!”)

What the U.S. considers a practical problem often isn't. That is a shitty statement. The U.S. also considered spending 2T on a jet that was worse than the F-22. Just because the U.S. spends on something doesn't mean it has a practical application.

Nevertheless, the internet turned out to be transforming from its original purpose. We can sit here and argue about cyrptocurreny but the game is young and we wont know what it will turn into in 30 years. Just like the people in the 70 and 80s didn't know how transforming the internet would become for our society.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#138
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As along as everything else is unequally shared in the world, distribution of coins will merely reflect that as it's a medium of exchange. Even if material wealth was reset and equally redistributed, the same processes that caused it to be unequally distributed in the first place, will apply again.

Even if the doctor could fix your broken leg, you'd die of old age eventually anyways.

Equally distributed wealth is not as common as non-broken legs. In fact, the reason you call a broken body part broken is because it diverged from what its natural state.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. government considered it a practical problem. That’s why they paid for it. If it helps, replace “practical problem” with “a problem customers will pay you to solve.” ARPANET had that. Bitcoin, on the other, never had an original sale. It was mined as a curiosity and then jumped from narrative (“currency of the future!”) to narrative (“store of value!”) to narrative (“mostly goes up!”)

What the U.S. considers a practical problem often isn't. That is a shitty statement. The U.S. also considered spending 2T on a jet that was worse than the F-22. Just because the U.S. spends on something doesn't mean it has a practical application. Nevertheless, the internet turned out to be transforming from its original purpose. We can sit here and argue about cyrptocurreny but the game is young and we wont know wha…

> What the U.S. considers a practical problem often isn't

Sure. But it’s still a customer making a purchase. That purchase grounds the project in someone’s need. A need they’re willing to trade for. The “trades for” part is important, since it references the status quo.

Financial assets, particularly speculative assets, don’t solve a need. They promise to solve a future need. (Sometimes they don’t.) Part of the discipline of speculating investing is knowing when to pull the plug.

Re: Bitcoin is a Cult

#140
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9 years is not very long for an emerging technology. AI has been around since the 60's. Arpanet was established in 1969. Electricity was relatively well understood in 1750 (we had batteries that could store electrical charge) but the electric lightbulb wasn't invented until more than 100 years later. Bitcoin is very early, it's core infrastructure, it's going to take time to get established, and once it does get esta…

I work in the public sector, we’ve done quite a few proof of concepts on blockchain over the years, because we have actual use cases where a decentralized system makes sense. Like land registry, keeping bi-temporal records and case flows where citizens can follow their progress from home. We’ve yet to make it work though. Decentralized voting is too vulnerable and mining is too anti-climate, so it’s really all turnin…

Blockchains do have instant use cases. Remittances being one huge example, for many years blockchains were the cheapest way to send money across borders, and for many countries they still are, though they've put a lot of pressure on banks to reduce the prices of remittances.

Other types of digital international payments have also been made a lot easier. You don't need to sign an agreement with a credit card company or a bank to start accepting money from a blockchain, you just run a node an you are good to go. Especially for use cases where payments are typically high risk or denied altogether (shipping expensive hardware, adult entertainment, or any business with a generally high fraud rate and chargeback rate).

Blockchains also allow for completely transparent, auditable, provably fair gambling, something you simply can't achieve in the physical world.

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A lot of the blockchain projects that have kicked off do not understand the limitations and uses of blockchain technology. For example, decentralized land ownership and decentralized voting are both things that you fundamentally can't get fully secure using a blockchain. Land is a physical asset, and it will always be a government or police force that ultimately decides who owns a property. The blockchain may say one thing, but that result has to be defended in the physical world by someone who agrees with the blockchain results.

Voting is the same way. Identity is inherently centralized, there is no way to connect a physical human being to a single identity in the digital world unless there's some centralized entity like a government managing the ID system.

One big use case that's around the corner but needs more foundational technology work is point of sale payments. It seems like the adoption curve has been going backwards on those for blockchain, however this is because layer 1 fees have been getting more expensive, and attackers have finally started exploiting weaknesses like zero confirmation payments, something that originally a lot of blockchain proponents asserted was secure (core developers never endorsed this notion, however core developers rarely had control of the blockchain narrative). As more user friendly, more secure, and more scalable solutions like the lightning network come online, we will see point of sale payments using blockchain technology pick up again.

We're still probably 1-2 years out from the lightning network being production ready, so merchants are still generally discouraged from using it for daily business. But it's going to get there and when it's ready the scalability will be on the order of tens of millions of daily users.

We have the cryptography and technology to get from tens of millions to hundreds of millions, but again that's technology and research which is just now coming out, won't be in production for another 5-8 years by my estimations.

Whether or not you choose to believe it, there are tens of thousands of businesses out there today tackling markets and buyers that would be completely unavailable to them without the use of blockchains. And that's because blockchains make payment rails viable that simply aren't viable when you are stuck with traditional systems like credit cards, paypal, stripe, and bank transfers.

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