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U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

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Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#181
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This interview with John Carreyrou [1], the Wall Street Journal journalist who is largely responsible for exposing Theranos, goes into a lot of detail. It's long, so if you want a shorter answer, jump to the question "What technology did Theranos actually develop?": Basically there were three iterations of the technology. The first one used microfluidics, which are basically the repurposing of the micro-fabrication t…

> The short answer is her Jobs-like "reality distortion field" -- she was exceedingly good at convincing ... Considering this and the lack of substance behind her claims, I would personally bet money that she is a clinical psychopath. The most disturbing thing I have ever observed about human beings is our tendency to follow psychopaths. Psychopaths seem to have this gravity around them and people just fall into line…

One of the patterns that interests me a lot is supernormal stimulus. An organism is evolved to deal with a stimulus in a certain range, and something comes along that is so far outside it that things break.

The classic example is Niko Tinbergen, who created models of fish that were rounder and redder than the real fish, who would ignore other real fish and focus on the models. The human ability to refine things produces a lot of good examples. Like how refined sugar influences us so much that it ends up in most processed foods. Or how refining the coca leaf produces addicts.

My theory with sociopaths is that giving no fucks what others think allows them to be unnaturally confident. Since we often evaluate others by how confident they are, we are easily taken in by people with supernormal confidence. That gives us the reality distortion field (as social primates, our main reality is social) and "drinking the kool-aid". Which is a metaphor Jobs used for how he wanted people to react to the Mac, but the metaphor is about a cult whose charismatic leaders led them to mass suicide. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonestown#Deaths_in_Jonestown

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#182
Martin Shkreli is in prison now - he deserves it, though he was guilty of _far_ less then Elizabeth Holmes.

Holmes should already be in prison for massive fraud. The fact she is a female and mimicked Jobs seems to have saved her so far though.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#183
post #6

Does anybody know if Theranos got started with at least an idea how to accomplish what they wanted to do? From what I have heard in interviews they started with the thought "Doing xxx would be super useful" but didn't have an approach for accomplishing this but instead took in money and tried to figure it out. It's like me saying "An antimatter drive would revolutionize space exploration" and starting to collect mone…

This interview with John Carreyrou [1], the Wall Street Journal journalist who is largely responsible for exposing Theranos, goes into a lot of detail. It's long, so if you want a shorter answer, jump to the question "What technology did Theranos actually develop?": Basically there were three iterations of the technology. The first one used microfluidics, which are basically the repurposing of the micro-fabrication t…

> Jobs-like "reality distortion field"

There's salesmanship and then there's lying. It might feel like a thin line but I think it's important not to conflate the two. Criminal behavior is not just "reality distortion".

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#184
post #15

I wonder how Tim Draper will argue this is a conspiracy to take down "another great icon"[0] [0] http://fortune.com/2018/05/11/tim-draper-theranos-elizabeth-...

He's probably too busy now trying to split up California into pieces. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-split-t...

That guy is nuts. It scares me that with his money he has a lot of influence.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#185
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The short answer is her Jobs-like "reality distortion field" -- she was exceedingly good at convincing ... Considering this and the lack of substance behind her claims, I would personally bet money that she is a clinical psychopath. The most disturbing thing I have ever observed about human beings is our tendency to follow psychopaths. Psychopaths seem to have this gravity around them and people just fall into line…

One of the patterns that interests me a lot is supernormal stimulus. An organism is evolved to deal with a stimulus in a certain range, and something comes along that is so far outside it that things break. The classic example is Niko Tinbergen, who created models of fish that were rounder and redder than the real fish, who would ignore other real fish and focus on the models. The human ability to refine things produ…

Wow. That is by far the most realistic and rational hypothesis for this phenomenon I've heard. It's simple, elegant, and seems testable. Thanks!

I think this may also offer some explanation for the appeal of the utterly absurd, like flat Earth or galactic emperor Xenu. Its supernormally ridiculous, which invokes a sense of fascination.

In any case if this is true I think this effect is being weaponized today to an unprecedented degree.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#186

"The defendants are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud." WHY DO THIS. Each count of wire fraud is 20 years in prison [1]. If 9 counts are proven you are looking at a 180 years in prison. (life sentence). You are better off doing 2nd degree murder 3 times - at least it is a challenge to prove. Proving wire fraud sounds pretty simple - they just read a bunch of emai…

> WHY DO THIS They don't think they will get caught. For a live example, see HN's cryptocurrency threads. A common theme is talk about faking KYC or laundering money or how their scam is too small to garner federal attention.

Where?

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#187

Martin Shkreli is in prison now - he deserves it, though he was guilty of _far_ less then Elizabeth Holmes. Holmes should already be in prison for massive fraud. The fact she is a female and mimicked Jobs seems to have saved her so far though.

That’s an interesting read on what Shkreli did vs Holmes.

At least Holmes “victims” AFAIK were mostly rich folks losing other people’s money they’re gambling with and should have known better.

Shkreli fleeced normal folks just looking to get their day meds.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#188
post #180
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>determine traffic on a freeway by taking a brief glance through a tiny slit in a piece of paper. taking 10 such brief glances may allow for some good enough probabilistic estimate though. Upon hearing first time about Theranos in 2013 i thought that they would do something like it, i.e. statistical approach based on some data mining as they would collect large number of samples, etc. - a typical SV tech based approa…

What's so bad about the black turtleneck?

In the tech industry, if it's worn as a uniform, it's probably a dead give-away that the person should be avoided (especially if there's any other supporting evidence related to negative behavior). It's a Jobsian mimic. There was one Steve Jobs, he was extraordinary in some ways, and he wasn't very nice. There isn't going to be another, he was the product of a unique circumstance. The next great person/s will be their own composition made up of the time and place.

Her fake voice is a lot more indicative than the black turtleneck though.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#189

Martin Shkreli is in prison now - he deserves it, though he was guilty of _far_ less then Elizabeth Holmes. Holmes should already be in prison for massive fraud. The fact she is a female and mimicked Jobs seems to have saved her so far though.

That’s an interesting read on what Shkreli did vs Holmes. At least Holmes “victims” AFAIK were mostly rich folks losing other people’s money they’re gambling with and should have known better. Shkreli fleeced normal folks just looking to get their day meds.

Holmes fleeced normal folks too by knowingly giving them inaccurate test results, which in some cases could lead to death.

Re: U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes, Ramesh Balwani

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's probably too busy now trying to split up California into pieces. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-split-t...

That guy is nuts. It scares me that with his money he has a lot of influence.

I realize the ongoing support of this founder looks pretty bad. But in all my interactions and work with Tim Draper, I've found him to be an ethical and good person. He is nuts in an amazing way, and of all the investors I have met in the valley, I can't think of any other one I'd entrust with his influence.
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