New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says • Hacker News Board

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#81

Post by rayiner » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 6:59 PM UTC

martythemaniak wrote: post #77

rayiner wrote: post #10

> "To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features," he said. Running cars into medians at 70 mph is the result of "focus[ing] entirely on safety?" Now they're going to focus on other things, besides safety?

I think I'm going to have to start flagging nearly all Tesla-related thread on here and others should consider doing likewise. The level of discussion in these threads is amongst the lowest level found on this site and now rivals the daily-news-politic based ones. The the top comments in this thread a shitty mix of dumb snark like yours, or bold apocalyptic pronouncements. There's no room in these threads anymore for…

Engineers, more than anything else, don't like it when you piss on their leg and tell them its raining. Musk's statements here are Ballmer-esque marketing doublespeak: We've been focused on "safety" to date [don't mind that our cars run themselves into concrete barriers], and will roll out "full autonomy features" in the next software update [don't mind the NTSB report that shows that our technology is a glorified version of the lane-keeping everyone else is already doing].

I think a lot of the reaction on HN is the result of people simply realizing the large delta between what Tesla claims to have, what people thought Tesla has, and what it actually has.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#82

Post by Symmetry » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:10 PM UTC

todd8 wrote: post #74

gamblor956 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and tria…

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dept…

Your brain is using something in the ballpark of a petaflop of computing power to do that sort of incredible stuff.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#83

Post by Symmetry » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:26 PM UTC

ggg9990 wrote: post #21

In the last 12 months it’s become clear that Musk relies on the same defensive self-aggrandizing bluster that makes Trump so ridiculous. Quite a quick trip down from demigod for him.

It's not good to think of anyone as a demigod but there's a big difference between Elon and Trump. Elon very much has a problem with defensiveness and he tweets too much. Sometimes he's also wrong about things. But I'll give him credit for being both honest and idealistic which Trump certainly isn't.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#84

Post by JackCh » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 8:50 PM UTC

todd8 wrote: post #74

gamblor956 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and tria…

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dept…

I have perfect vision in one eye and very poor vision in the other. While it's possible for me to drive without my glasses, I don't consider it safe. With one eye I can read signs, see pedestrians, cars, etc; but I find that the accuracy of my depth perception suffers. I estimate speed and distances with less precision. Try catching a baseball with one eye covered. It's possible but a lot harder.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#85

Post by Someone » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 9:23 PM UTC

todd8 wrote: post #74

gamblor956 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and tria…

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dept…

“One eye”, in humans, has about 125 million sensors (120 million rods, 6 million cones) Calling that “one sensor” is cheating slightly.

But yes, you only need that second eye for stereo vision if you only have data from a single moment in time.

In theory, you can see perfect 3D with a single photoreceptor by scanning with it (giving up temporal resolution, a bit like a electron gun that can write a million pixels per second writes only 50 or 60 images a second on a tv)

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#86

Post by isostatic » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 10:38 AM UTC

Someone wrote: post #85

todd8 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dept…

“One eye”, in humans, has about 125 million sensors (120 million rods, 6 million cones) Calling that “one sensor” is cheating slightly. But yes, you only need that second eye for stereo vision if you only have data from a single moment in time. In theory, you can see perfect 3D with a single photoreceptor by scanning with it (giving up temporal resolution, a bit like a electron gun that can write a million pixels per…

By your logic, a 125megapixel camera arguably has 125 million sensors too?

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#87

Post by Piskvorrr » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 11:10 AM UTC

JackCh wrote: post #71

sunstone wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that Musk and his companies have accomplished some amazing things. Did you see the simultaneous rocket landings? So 'self aggrandizing bluster' may not be the phrase the you're looking for. How about 'low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?

> "low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?" I'm not sure that quite covers it either, since at least in the case of SpaceX he had a sizable number people rooting for him back when his rockets were still blowing up every time. Back in the Falcon 1 days. I was one of them. I think rockets are really fucking cool. I think a lot of the leeway and fandom Elon has gotten comes from a hardc…

In other words, wishful thinking > actual dead people, because they're not supposed to have died, therefore did not happen. Great Kool-Aid, mmmm.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#88

Post by primesplitter » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 11:15 AM UTC

panarky wrote: post #76

JackCh wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a deceptive use of statistics because it's papering over all the nuance involved. Not all road miles are equivalent. Specifically, Tesla Autopilot only functions (or is meant to function) in a very narrow subset of all conceivable driving conditions. Many of the situations that Tesla Autopilot isn't meant for are the most dangerous conditions that unassisted humans drive in. Furthermore the statistic doesn't…

> Not all road miles are equivalent Great point. I'm looking for numbers and found this story [0] that says the fatality rate on rural roads is 2.5x urban highways. How many miles are driven on highways and how many fatalities? Does one human driver die per 100M, 200M, 300M miles? Should the standard for autonomous driving be 100%, 50%, or 10% of the human-driver standard before we agree that it's beneficial? [0] htt…

Also one still needs to include the impact bad wheather conditions, where Tesla's AP is not to be used either. Then there's the impact of "incompetent" drivers on the statistic. As a toy example, consider a world where competent drivers cause 1 death per 100mm miles. AP causes 2 deaths per 100mm miles. However, 20% of all human drivers are driving while drunk and/or sleepy and cause 10 deaths per 100mm miles. This gives an average of 2.8 deaths per 100mm miles. Clearly, AP has a better average but you should only use it while you're drunk.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#89

Post by Someone » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 5:09 PM UTC

isostatic wrote: post #86

Someone wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“One eye”, in humans, has about 125 million sensors (120 million rods, 6 million cones) Calling that “one sensor” is cheating slightly. But yes, you only need that second eye for stereo vision if you only have data from a single moment in time. In theory, you can see perfect 3D with a single photoreceptor by scanning with it (giving up temporal resolution, a bit like a electron gun that can write a million pixels per…

By your logic, a 125megapixel camera arguably has 125 million sensors too?

Assuming it’s a color camera, at least double that :-)

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#90

Post by itsslo » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 9:30 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #75

_ph_ wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they will be. Q2 is going to be negative again, but Tesla has enough cash left for that. From all announcements it looks as if Tesla has made all investments needed into the Model 3 production to reach the 5k cars/week production goal at the end of the month. At that rate Tesla should be slightly profitable.

No, I mean, will Tesla be able to have something it'll be able to advertise as "full self parking" by August? That doesn't run over stationary dogs/children?

That's a valid question/concern but that we're addressing the correct interpretation of Musk's statement.