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New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

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Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#71

Post by JackCh »

sunstone wrote: post #69
ggg9990 wrote: post #21

In the last 12 months it’s become clear that Musk relies on the same defensive self-aggrandizing bluster that makes Trump so ridiculous. Quite a quick trip down from demigod for him.

Given that Musk and his companies have accomplished some amazing things. Did you see the simultaneous rocket landings? So 'self aggrandizing bluster' may not be the phrase the you're looking for. How about 'low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?

> "low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?"

I'm not sure that quite covers it either, since at least in the case of SpaceX he had a sizable number people rooting for him back when his rockets were still blowing up every time. Back in the Falcon 1 days.

I was one of them. I think rockets are really fucking cool. I think a lot of the leeway and fandom Elon has gotten comes from a hardcore contingent of rocket enthusiasts and electric car enthusiasts who really want to see him succeed because they were already passionate about that domain before Elon entered the picture.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#72

Post by JackCh »

isostatic wrote: post #4

How Odd Yahoo insist that for me to read this page they must store cookies on my machine [0] However when I load the page in lynx and choose "neVer accept cookies", the content loads just fine [1] [0] https://i.imgur.com/OIcmAby.png [1] https://i.imgur.com/ZdtpCxC.png

Noscript and/or umatrix kills that kind of crap.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#74

Post by todd8 »

gamblor956 wrote: post #53
ageofwant wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR is not magic. You can get full situational awareness with boring old video these days. LIDAR was just easier to characterize back in the day before gigahertz ASIC AD video processors.

LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and tria…

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available.

See “Depth Perception” at [1].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_perception

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#75

Post by rayiner »

_ph_ wrote: post #70
rayiner wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So long as it could park without any human oversight, yes, I'd consider that to fit Musk's statement. But will Tesla be even there by August?

Yes, they will be. Q2 is going to be negative again, but Tesla has enough cash left for that. From all announcements it looks as if Tesla has made all investments needed into the Model 3 production to reach the 5k cars/week production goal at the end of the month. At that rate Tesla should be slightly profitable.

No, I mean, will Tesla be able to have something it'll be able to advertise as "full self parking" by August? That doesn't run over stationary dogs/children?

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#76

Post by panarky »

JackCh wrote: post #55
panarky wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to work with some real numbers. In the US there are about 1.2 fatalities per 100 million miles driven [0]. About 19 months ago, Tesla said their cars logged 1.3 billion miles on autopilot [1]. I'd guess that autopilot number has at least doubled by now. So if there have been far fewer than 26 people killed by autopilot, then it's already saving lives. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_r…

This is a deceptive use of statistics because it's papering over all the nuance involved. Not all road miles are equivalent. Specifically, Tesla Autopilot only functions (or is meant to function) in a very narrow subset of all conceivable driving conditions. Many of the situations that Tesla Autopilot isn't meant for are the most dangerous conditions that unassisted humans drive in. Furthermore the statistic doesn't…

> Not all road miles are equivalent

Great point.

I'm looking for numbers and found this story [0] that says the fatality rate on rural roads is 2.5x urban highways.

How many miles are driven on highways and how many fatalities? Does one human driver die per 100M, 200M, 300M miles?

Should the standard for autonomous driving be 100%, 50%, or 10% of the human-driver standard before we agree that it's beneficial?

[0] https://www.npr.org/2009/11/29/120716625/the-deadliest-roads...

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#77

Post by martythemaniak »

rayiner wrote: post #10

> "To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features," he said. Running cars into medians at 70 mph is the result of "focus[ing] entirely on safety?" Now they're going to focus on other things, besides safety?

I think I'm going to have to start flagging nearly all Tesla-related thread on here and others should consider doing likewise.

The level of discussion in these threads is amongst the lowest level found on this site and now rivals the daily-news-politic based ones. The the top comments in this thread a shitty mix of dumb snark like yours, or bold apocalyptic pronouncements.

There's no room in these threads anymore for anything but emotional venting.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#78

Post by ggg9990 »

sunstone wrote: post #69
ggg9990 wrote: post #21

In the last 12 months it’s become clear that Musk relies on the same defensive self-aggrandizing bluster that makes Trump so ridiculous. Quite a quick trip down from demigod for him.

Given that Musk and his companies have accomplished some amazing things. Did you see the simultaneous rocket landings? So 'self aggrandizing bluster' may not be the phrase the you're looking for. How about 'low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?

Sure, his accomplishments are immense. But that doesn’t change the fact that he shipped an incomplete Autopilot and then tried to blame the guy who died using it.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#79

Post by philipodonnell »

martythemaniak wrote: post #77
rayiner wrote: post #10

> "To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features," he said. Running cars into medians at 70 mph is the result of "focus[ing] entirely on safety?" Now they're going to focus on other things, besides safety?

I think I'm going to have to start flagging nearly all Tesla-related thread on here and others should consider doing likewise. The level of discussion in these threads is amongst the lowest level found on this site and now rivals the daily-news-politic based ones. The the top comments in this thread a shitty mix of dumb snark like yours, or bold apocalyptic pronouncements. There's no room in these threads anymore for…

What you perceive as emotional venting I think is actually frustration that we are again seeing a media darling company making grandiose claims about its products while the experts on places like HN insist that those claims are dangerously exceeding its true capabilities. A person died as a direct result of Tesla's insistence that they can call it an autopilot/self driving car while knowing full well that it was not designed to avoid stationary objects in the roadway. Press F to pay respects.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#80

Post by orbital-decay »

todd8 wrote: post #74
gamblor956 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and tria…

Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dept…

Motion is not required either. There's a reason for a shallow DoF in big photographic lenses/sensors. Bokeh can be represented as a processed depth map.
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