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NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

arstechnica.com

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Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#361

Post by Robotbeat »

jonhendry18 wrote: post #351
Robotbeat wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make that kind of conclusion from a single, extremely-highly-publicized occurrence, even a fatal one. Given how often human drivers kill people, you need statistics to show that autopilot is worse.

I'm going to need statistics from an independent source, not from Tesla, that autopilot is safer. I'm not inclined to trust Tesla's statistics given how cavalier they have been about putting their shoddy autopilot product on the road and marketing it as being better than it actually is.

Of course. How about the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration?

https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/19/nhtsas-full-final-investig...

A 40% reduction still means plenty of anecdotes for media fodder.

There may come a time when autonomous vehicles make driving so safe that the only data we can and should rely on is the rare anecdote like this and the subsequent NTSB report, like airlines. But while it’s always good to take seriously the lessons that NTSB’s targeted investigations provide, a lot more people will die tragic but less-publicized deaths if we stop any company from deploying an imperfect but still overall beneficial technology.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#362

Post by utopcell »

aero142 wrote: post #288
Maybestring wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This kind of stuff is why I’ve lost all faith in Tesla’s public statements. I don't understand why they would issue any statement other than, 'condolences, we're committed to safety, we're working with the NTSB to understand what happened'

I think Musk strongly believes that flipping the switch to sacrifice 1 and save 5 in the trolley problem is clearly the correct choice. If the numbers show that less people die with self driving cars than with them, then that is the right choice. I suspect he even believes that the people that die along the way in the transitional periods are worth it if that is what it takes to save hundreds of thousands of lives in…

Who is going to report these statistics ? Would you trust such a statement coming out of Tesla right now ?

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#363

Post by srwx »

elpool2 wrote: post #254
jfrankamp wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To follow on, there has already been reported autopilot drifting and mismanaging that spot on the freeway (although without this catastrophic result). That fact adds to this description/explanation. Aside: the following another car heuristic is dumb. It's ultimately offloading the AI/decision making work onto another agent, an unknown agent. You could probably have a train of teslas following eachother following a du…

Does it actually use the position of the car in front to determine where to steer? My Honda will sense cars in front of me but will only use that info to adjust speed when using cruise control.

It will if it can't get a lock on the lane markers. For example mine does this when navigating through large unmarked intersections which in my home town has many where the far side lanes don't align with the lanes before entering the intersection (due to added left and right turn lanes). My Tesla will follow a car in front as they slightly adjust position to the offset lanes on the far side (which is very cool) but if there is no car to follow I just take over knowing it'll not handle it well.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#364

Post by yogrish »

akira2501 wrote: post #315
Pfhreak wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems testable. IANAAE (I Am Not An Automotive Engineer), but why can't you run both the new and old code side by side and if the actions they take are materially different investigate further? Like, if in one case the new code would want you to move left, and the old code goes straight, one of those behaviors is probably wrong. If the driver corrects, then the new code is probably correct, but if the driver doe…

> but why can't you run both the new and old code side by side and if the actions they take are materially different investigate further? Because there are no closed facilities that you can use to actually perform any meaningful test. You could test "in-situ", but you would need an absolutely _huge_ testing area in order to accurately test and check all the different roadway configurations the vehicle is likely to en…

This is where simulators play an important role. Many AD( automated driving) solution suppliers are investing into simulators to create different scenarios and test performance of their sensors and also SW. Else, as you said it’s impossible to drive billions of miles to cover all usecases.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#365

Post by megablast »

buvanshak wrote: post #348
megablast wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a car company. Their products directly kill over a million people every year. The injure 10x as many. Their pollution causes a similar number of deaths. They are responsible for so many horrible side effects, including dangerous city and suburbs to people taking up more and more space. You think this one crash makes them evil?

No, it is not the crash that makes the evil. It is how they handle it. And how they put blatantly misleading marketing out there, along with poorly researched features that may or may not have lead to overconfidence from the drivers along with half baked tech, that resulted in crashes such as these.

You just ignored every one of my points.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#366

Post by Robotbeat »

hashbig wrote: post #352
Robotbeat wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd prevent them from using the AutoPilot term I disagree. It's the same term as in aviation and does the same thing. > penalise them for marketing imagery that includes people driving with their hands off the wheel That's more reasonable.

> It's the same term as in aviation and does the same thing. Except in aviation trained pilots with at least a decade of experience flying planes get to use it, understanding well the limitations and purpose of the technology. A teenager can use Tesla's "Autopilot".

Incorrect. Autopilots are commonly used even in general aviation, and you can get your pilot’s license in just a month or two if you had a cooperative flight school. Heck, there are accelerated immersive programs that train you in just 14 days.

You only need ~40 hours (minimum) of flight time to get your private pilot’s license. This isn’t even much different than driving license requirements, except that planes are a lot more expensive to rent and operate.

(And for the record, teens can also use autopilots on airplanes since you can get a student pilot’s license allowing you to operate a plane by yourself at age 16. Roughly the same number of hours of supervised instructional operation as getting a driver’s license.)

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#367

Post by AceyMan »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #355
AmVess wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flying in an airplane is safe because of direct intervention by the government. Cars have been made safe for us also by direct intervention by the government. From important things like mandating seat belts and crash safety to smaller things like forcing the recall of tens of millions of faulty air bag inflators. These are just a few of the many things Uncle Sam has done to make things safer for us.

Isn’t flying mostly safe because of post hoc safety analysis followed by operating requirements? I don’t think the FAA tests every change made to aircraft before they can fly?

De facto the FAA indeed does that very thing.

First, any change in design (or in configuration, in the case of repairs) is backed by PEs or A&P mechanics who sign off on the changes. Their career rides on the validity of their analysis so that's a better guarantee than some commit message by a systems programmer.

Second, the FAA basically says "show us what you are changing" after which they will absolutely require physical tests (static or dynamic tests, test flights, etc., as appropriate to the scope of change).

And I'd say flying is so safe mainly from the blameless post-mortem policy that the American industry instantiated decades ago and which is constantly reinforced by the pros in the NTSB. It's a wonderful model for improvement.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#368

Post by annerajb »

lscotte wrote: post #300
Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

Wow, Tesla doesn't have auto emergency braking? Even my Kia has that - adaptive cruise for following cars, auto emergency braking for stationary objects (and when the car in front of you suddenly slows down). Yeah, I'll keep my Kia...

It does but it cannot detect stopped object which apparently is a standard limitation. Besides aeb is made to reduce crash speed the car will still crash.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#369

Post by dcposch »

Tesla Autopilot makes it to HN pretty much every week now, almost never in a good way.

Every time, we have a big discussion about autopilot safety, AI ethics, etc.

What about lack of focus?

Tesla has already reinvented the car in a big way--all-electric, long range, fast charge, with a huge network of "superchargers". It's taken EV from a niche environmentalist pursuit to something widely seen as the future of automotive.

Why are they trying to tackle self-driving cars at the same time?

This feels like a classic mistake and case of scope creep.

Becoming the Toyota of electric is vast engineering challenge. Level 5 autonomous driving is an equally vast engineering challenge. Both represent once-in-a-generation technological leaps. Trying to tackle both at the same time feels like hubris.

If they just made great human-piloted electric cars and focused on cost, production efficiency, volume, and quality, I think they'd be in a better place as a business. Autopilot seems like an expensive distraction.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#370

Post by jonhendry18 »

finnthehuman wrote: post #56
27182818284 wrote: post #13

The NTSB report confirms that. The crash attenuator—an accordion-like barrier that's supposed to cushion a vehicle when it crashes into the lane separator—had been damaged the previous week when a Toyota Prius crashed at the same location. The resulting damage made the attenuator ineffective and likely contributed to Huang's death. kinda sounds like maybe that part of the road isn't well designed or marked too.

A crash attenuator is a “nice to have” kind of feature. The minimum drivable roadway conditions can be, and often are, worse. We have higher standards for human drivers and it wouldn’t be news except for the autopilot. Unless you want to ramp up caltrans to the point where it can fix non-essential parts of any and every roadway within hours of degredeation, it’s entirely impractical to expect them to be in perfect sh…

The simplest form of attenuator is just a group of plastic barrels filled with sand or water, which ought to be pretty quick and easy to replace. If California uses something fancier, then sand or water barrels would be an easy stopgap measure.
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