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NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

arstechnica.com

121–130 of 546 posts

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without commenting on the rest of the issues with Musk/Tesla, his tweet about a news verification agency was a joke. Verifiably. It was nicknamed Pravda, and a corporation related to his tweet was registered to Musk on Oct 17 2017, the anniversery of the October Revolution.

A joke? It's verifiable because he said he might name it Pravda, and the fact that he actually registered it is further evidence that it's a joke? I'm not saying he's really going to do it, but I question your certainty here with a total lack of actual evidence.

The words of leaders should always be taken literally, because the those words only become "jokes" when they are otherwise unexplainable in rational discussion.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#122
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add to that, the last bullet point from page 2 of the official preliminary report[1]: At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increased from 62 to 70.8 mph, with no precrash braking or evasive steering movement detected. That to me is a strong indicator that Tesla's AP2 can not recognize a crashed attenuator, probably one of the strongest argument that…

This happens with regular adaptive cruise control on my Ford, when the cruise control set point is a lot higher than the current speed: the car accelerates after another car clears the lane and ram into things.

Ford didn't call their adaptive cruise control "auto pilot", they call it as it really is: "Adaptive Cruise Control with Stop-and-Go".[1] By contrast, Tesla touted their ACC "auto pilot" with auto steering and clearly in this case it didn't steer correctly and proven fatal (at least 3 times in my memory.)

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnUtjs-jeJA

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#123

Despite the autopilot failure, I find the battery failure quite remarkable too: > The car was towed to an impound lot, but the vehicle's batteries weren't finished burning. A few hours after the crash, "the Tesla battery emanated smoke and audible venting." Five days later, the smoldering battery reignited, requiring another visit from the fire department. Where is your LiPo god now? Batteries have more energy densit…

> Now imagine the same situation with Tesla's huge semi batteries.

I'm bearish on Tesla (not financially, but I'm mostly a pessimist in regards to their news).

But to be perfectly fair: I'm not sure if 400 gallons of diesel fuel (typical in a 18-wheeler) could be put out by a typical fire-department.

There was a tractor-truck spill due to an accident in my area once. The fire-department closed down BOTH sides of a 2x2 lane highway (55 MPH zone, very few traffic lights, a grassy median). You don't mess with 400-gallons of inflammable diesel.

The good thing about diesel is that you can just, burn it out. Burn all of it. Close down the highway of course, but once it stops burning, its safe to cross. It may take 30 minutes to an hour (all the people stuck in traffic can get out of their car, talk with each other, play on cell phones or something...), but a controlled burn is better than an explosion.

I'm not sure if Lithium Ion has a good procedure yet.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#124
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps us fingers-in-ears Musk fans don't expect the AP to be perfect. Especially considering how new the fields are. Autopilot doesn't need to be perfect, just better than humans.

So because the field is new, it's okay that a human being is dead?

Thomas Edison would agree with your stance. Alternating Current is not safe and therefore should never have been implemented. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_currents#Edison's_a...

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A counter argument that HUMAN DRIVERS are unsafe an fatal (let alone missing common sense and alertness). I 100% get your point, but my counterpoint, is that this is what we are going to see, in the future. Autonomous systems that by and large are way safer, than human drivers, but when they fail, the might do so, in circumstances where are human would not. Humans are good at some things, computers/ai/sensor suites a…

I shouldn't have to keep saying this in every thread about Tesla autopilot, but I guess I do: the fact that there will probably one day be autonomous driving systems that are safer than human drivers does not imply that Tesla's current system is safer than human drivers.

I think it is safer. Its of course dependant on the situation ie. Highway cruising. But I think it is. (Human drivers are not that high of a bar, I see crashes at least weekly, on my stretch of highway)

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#126
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah. I wonder if they do recognize the stripes then. BTW does anyone know why it’s called a ‘gore’ zone? I can see it being a (brutal) nickname but I’m hoping there is some better reason.

"A gore (British English: nose),[1] refers to a triangular piece of land. Etymologically it is derived from gār, meaning spear." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gore_(road)

Thanks.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#127
post #105
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The paint on the right edge of the gore marking, as seen in Google Maps, is worn Indeed; here's a close-up of the critical area. Note that the darker stripe on the bottom of the photo is NOT the crucial one; the one that the car was supposed to follow is the much more faded one above that that you can barely see: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.410912,-122.0757037,3a,75y,2... (Note that I'm not blaming the faded pa…

Wow. The start of that concrete lane-divider looks incredibly dangerous for a highway. It pretty-much just "starts", with only some sort of object that they call a "crash attenuator" in front of it. I would imagine its purpose is to dampen/dissipate kinetic energy and maybe deflect oncoming objects from hitting the concrete slab directly. I don't even see any sort of road-bumps to warn drivers of this dangerous obsta…

Out of curiosity, are you not in the U.S.? These types of lane dividers are incredibly common throughout the country.

Note that I'm not defending the safety of them; I'm just surprised to see someone call them out as a hazard as they're such a common sight.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#128
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to think that a group of engineers didn't consider stationary objects when _designing_ an autopilot system. I would no longer consider it a flaw if it was considered.

It's a hardware limitation. If you have a radar, the only way to get a signal out of it is to ignore all stationary stuff.

That would make sense if the radar is stationary.

In this case, the radar system itself is moving... including moving relative to stationary objects. So I don't see how what you say makes sense.

Not saying you are wrong. Just saying I don't follow your explanation.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#129

self driving systems cant well reason about untrained scenarios or the intent of other humans on the road. I think the people have grossly underestimated how driving in an uncontrolled environment is really a general AI problem, which we're not even close to solving.

Disagree. I think that the likes of Waymo and Cruise understand exactly how hard of a problem this is. It's only companies like Uber and Tesla that are underestimating it, and doing stupid things like disabling automatic braking (Uber) or not using LIDAR (Tesla).

the best software engineering company in the world has spent over a decade and hundreds of $millions on this problem and they are still stuck in a private beta in the easiest road environment they could find. what does that tell you about the feasibility of the solution.

There's no evidence that Cruise is in the same class as Waymo.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happens with regular adaptive cruise control on my Ford, when the cruise control set point is a lot higher than the current speed: the car accelerates after another car clears the lane and ram into things.

To contrast that anecdote, this doesn't happen with my Subaru with EyeSight. It uses parallax for 3D distance, if it detects a solid object ahead (be it vehicle, wall, barrier, or anything else) it will apply the emergency braking system (which may still result in a collision in the given circumstances but at much less fatal speeds). The industry has many highly effective AEB systems, and has for years now. I cannot…

My Subaru with EyeSight accelerates heavily when it no longer is tracking a car in front. This has happened once or twice in odd circumstances, but since I was paying attention to both the speed increase and road in front I tapped the brakes to disengage.
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