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NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

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Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#91

Post by Analemma_ »

jungturk wrote: post #64
beenBoutIT wrote: post #38

Anyone here actually think Elon uses autopilot?

Not sure about Elon, but I suspect (hope?) most of us Tesla drivers have familiarized themselves with the limitations of the system. Its got a couple scenarios in my experience where it shines - chiefly long drives on clean clear interstates and stop-and-go traffic - but its got suicidal tendencies in others. Its not unlike being driven by a tipsy friend or a teenager - there are enough indications that it can't be t…

To be blunt, I'm kind of stunned that you are defending a system that you yourself describe as "like being driven by a tipsy friend". What?! Sure, I could sit in the front passenger seat while being driven by my tipsy friend and grab the wheel from him if he was about to steer into a wall, but that is clearly much less safe than just driving myself. And I definitely wouldn't pay for the privilege nor endorse it as a good way to travel!

This is what Elon's personality cult, and the psychological need to defend a large purchase, does to people. You are making excuses for a clearly defective product that wouldn't be acceptable if this was anyone other than Tesla.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#92

Post by jumelles »

d0lph wrote: post #65
ebikelaw wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The deficiency of Tesla AP has been abundantly clear to anyone with eyes, for a long time. Only fingers-in-ears Musk fans cannot see that.

Or perhaps us fingers-in-ears Musk fans don't expect the AP to be perfect. Especially considering how new the fields are. Autopilot doesn't need to be perfect, just better than humans.

So because the field is new, it's okay that a human being is dead?

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#93

Post by pipio21 »

jakelarkin wrote: post #14

self driving systems cant well reason about untrained scenarios or the intent of other humans on the road. I think the people have grossly underestimated how driving in an uncontrolled environment is really a general AI problem, which we're not even close to solving.

You don't need reason, you need fast reaction times slowing the car and avoiding obstacles.

The same happens with humans. Reason is extremely slow. Pilots are trained to act fast training the subconscious, not the logical mind.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#94

Post by nathas »

nlawalker wrote: post #50
Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

>> These vehicles will run into stationary obstacles at full speed with no warning or emergency braking at all. That is by design. This is not an implementation bug or sensor failure. A little off topic, but I'm curious: I usually use "by design" to mean "an intentional result." How do other people use the term? In this case, the behavior is a result of the design (as opposed to the implementation), but is surely not…

I find it hard to think that a group of engineers didn't consider stationary objects when _designing_ an autopilot system. I would no longer consider it a flaw if it was considered.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#95

Post by mmusson »

curiousgal wrote: post #39
jackson1way wrote: post #30

Despite the autopilot failure, I find the battery failure quite remarkable too: > The car was towed to an impound lot, but the vehicle's batteries weren't finished burning. A few hours after the crash, "the Tesla battery emanated smoke and audible venting." Five days later, the smoldering battery reignited, requiring another visit from the fire department. Where is your LiPo god now? Batteries have more energy densit…

Battery failure? You're expecting their engineers to design a battery that remains safe after a 70mph crash into a barrier?

Five days after the crash doesn’t seem unreasonable. I wonder if some kind of inerting compound can be developed for lithium batteries for use by firefighters and the like.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#96

Post by roywiggins »

giarc wrote: post #90
Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

>That's the fundamental problem here. These vehicles will run into stationary obstacles at full speed with no warning or emergency braking at all. That is by design I wouldn't say it's by design or expected behaviour because if a Tesla approached a stopped vehicle, the expectation would be the car would stop.

It's not expected behavior, but it seems to be what happens if you don't prevent it.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-rear-ends-another-parked...

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#97

Post by falcolas »

Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

One more thing to note - anecdotal evidence indicates that Tesla cars did not attempt to center within a lane prior to an OTA update, after which multiple cars exhibited this "centering" action into gore sections (and thus required manual input to avoid an incident) on video.

To me, that this behavior was added via an update makes it even harder to predict - your car can pass a particular section of road without incident one thousand times, but an OTA update makes that one thousand and first time deadly.

Humans are generally quite poor at responding to unexpected behavior changes such as this.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#98

Post by stetrain »

ckastner wrote: post #82
d0lph wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps us fingers-in-ears Musk fans don't expect the AP to be perfect. Especially considering how new the fields are. Autopilot doesn't need to be perfect, just better than humans.

It must also never be worse than humans. In this case, it very clearly was.

So human drivers wouldn't crash here? Or a good, attentive, best-case human driver wouldn't crash here? Because those are not the same set, and it seems the former set has crashed into this particular barrier multiple times.

I don't think it's acceptible that a vehicle with adaptive cruise, lane keeping, and emergency braking would hit this barrier without any mitigating braking or action, but the actual state of drivers on the roads and human traffic fatalities is pretty grim as-is.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#99

Post by falcon620 »

beenBoutIT wrote: post #38

Anyone here actually think Elon uses autopilot?

I think he's a psycho (could be a good thing, wait) who cares about two things:

a) Tesla making enough money to make Space X work

b) Being able to establish a colony on Mars, using Space X

I think he's super honest about the Mars stuff. I also think he's being super deceptive about the Tesla stuff. Is that ethical or not? I don't know. From his larger point of view (risk of earth annihilation vs a bunch of rich americans dying in Tesla failures)... who knows.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#100

Post by stefan_ »

nathas wrote: post #94
nlawalker wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> These vehicles will run into stationary obstacles at full speed with no warning or emergency braking at all. That is by design. This is not an implementation bug or sensor failure. A little off topic, but I'm curious: I usually use "by design" to mean "an intentional result." How do other people use the term? In this case, the behavior is a result of the design (as opposed to the implementation), but is surely not…

I find it hard to think that a group of engineers didn't consider stationary objects when _designing_ an autopilot system. I would no longer consider it a flaw if it was considered.

It's a hardware limitation. If you have a radar, the only way to get a signal out of it is to ignore all stationary stuff.
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