The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years • Hacker News Board

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#101

Post by Regardsyjc » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 11:12 AM UTC

AIX2ESXI wrote: post #91

maroonblazer wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty familiar with Murray but you seem to be taking some of his claims and making them a self-fulfilling prophecy. Aim higher.

Thanks for the insight, was not trying to do that, but in review I certainly did. Always trying to aim higher. Can you recommend any good political science or demographic books beside from author William Strauss? My intention is really to understand to understand the chaos around me. Forgive me for coming off steamed, but as I was an orphan as a child and was a ward of the court until I was emancipated at age 18. Sta…

I would recommend learning more about the things you hate.

I used to hate modern art. I thought it was only for obnoxious people. Then I decided to take a college course on it and it's my favorite period of art because I learned to understand it. For the same reasons, I decided to take a course on the black power movement. My parents were racist so I was probably racist so I wanted to learn more. I learned about the Civil rights movement and discovered many personal heroes. I used to dislike John McCain and politics even though I knew very little about either, until I saw a documentary about McCain and learned he was literally a hero. I used to think finance, statistics, and programming were for smart people unlike me, until I learned more and developed a love for it.

I used to think the red pill was complete trash until someone forced me to watch the red pill documentary. It led to a painful breakup where we both weren't able to empathize with each other's traumas. I could not empathize with his pain of feeling inferior (because that's my status quo) and he could not empathize with the systemic oppression and violence against women (physical, sexual, and emotional). I feel he felt that his father may have been taken advantage of, abused and used financially and feared that for himself. While I watched my father abuse my mother, emotionally and financially, and feared that for myself. It was strange how we both felt strongly about both sides, the same problem, except we were passionately divided simply because of gender. I learned a lot and probably will always be learning from that experience.

Every time I've challenged my views, I've been rewarded.

Two books I've enjoyed or am enjoying that are about chaos:

Evicted by Mathew Desmond covers American poverty from a housing perspective.

The Big Short covers the 2008 financial crisis and it's much more informative than the film.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#102

Post by kartan » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 12:04 PM UTC

chillwaves wrote: post #47

kartan wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (Not saying Social Security is bad in concept, but it only works in times of sharp population growth, and even then, banking on the youth to carry you just because seems squicky to many ). Social Security works with economic growth. It doesn't matter if you get 10 babies or 10 robots. Automation makes possible to keep proper living standards without exponential population growth. Social Security, as other services…

> Social Security works with economic growth. It doesn't matter if you get 10 babies or 10 robots. This would be true except the SS tax ceiling is extremely low. SS does not scale on the rich past $128,400. One man owning 10 robots will pay less SS than 10 workers. This is the whole reason why the "crisis" of SS is vastly overstated and a political choice, given the obvious available solutions.

> One man owning 10 robots will pay less SS than 10 workers.

That can be changed. The difficulty is more related to corruption and lobbying than any economical constrain.

But, you are right. If nothing changes on how taxes are collected, or if it continues changing against social wellfare then it is a problem.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#103

Post by kartan » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 12:05 PM UTC

darawk wrote: post #42

kartan wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (Not saying Social Security is bad in concept, but it only works in times of sharp population growth, and even then, banking on the youth to carry you just because seems squicky to many ). Social Security works with economic growth. It doesn't matter if you get 10 babies or 10 robots. Automation makes possible to keep proper living standards without exponential population growth. Social Security, as other services…

I believe you mean that some theoretical structure vaguely like social security could work, in principle, without population growth. However, the social security system we actually have acquires its funds from the income of individuals. You could structure social security as a tax on capital, but that isn't how it currently works.

> You could structure social security as a tax on capital, but that isn't how it currently works.

Yes. 100% true. I just mean that it can be changed. It is not an economic constraint, but it is the current situation.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#104

Post by dominotw » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 12:10 PM UTC

heurist wrote: post #64

AIX2ESXI wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. Most men will actually marry down economically, but women generally marry up economically. Perhaps when this is finally noticed, men will only marry their equals. With women graduating college at higher rates, perhaps this changes? https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/marrying-down-why-men-are-the...

My wife prefers a career working with autistic children, and earns much less than I do as a software developer because of that preference. She is amazing and I want to enable her to do whatever she is happiest doing using the money I am fortunate to be earning, as much as she is willing to let me help. You're looking at other human beings as merely economic objects and that's not going to net you happiness long-term.…

> You're looking at other human beings as merely economic objects

I don't mean to be offensive but don't you think she considered your earning potential while choosing you as her husband?

There is nothing wrong with doing it, ppl have beeen doing it forever. Nothing immoral about it. It does go into the equation.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#105

Post by RhysU » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 12:16 PM UTC

throw_this_one wrote: post #76

alf-pogz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speak for yourself. I'm petrified by the prospect of lack of growth. It is what our economy is built on, and a larger population could result in better science. There is plenty of land in the United States. Even our cities in the rust belt are underpopulated.

The growth-based economic model is flawed. Countries should be rewarded economically/politically by some sort of sustainability index where all of their positive/negative externalities are accounted for. We do not need more people on this planet. It will only increase the likelihood of a major catastrophe like famine -> war -> nuclear war, which will then put scientific research back decades if not centuries.

> Countries should be rewarded economically/politically by some sort of sustainability index where all of their positive/negative externalities are accounted for.

From which growth-based economies will those rewards be taken? If not that way, then how?

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#106

Post by dredmorbius » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 1:34 PM UTC

kartan wrote: post #37

ryanx435 wrote: post #19

It's not economic. People have been poor for hundreds and thousands and millions of years, and yet they still had children.

But nowadays people can choose if they want to have children. In the past, that was not so easy, at least if you wanted to have sex. Once people can choose to not children, factors like the economy affect population growth.

In the past it was not infrequent among cultures to choose not to keep children via various forms of infanticide. Some prophylactic and abortive options existed as well. Though, yes, not as assured or safe as present methods.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#107

Post by pavel_lishin » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 1:52 PM UTC

sametmax wrote: post #95

salawat wrote: post #3

There were a couple points in there that could, may, should have been left on the cutting room floor. Some good points were made however. Social Security in its original Ponzi-Schemesque form will end up even worse for wear with declining birthrates. (Not saying Social Security is bad in concept, but it only works in times of sharp population growth, and even then, banking on the youth to carry you just because seems…

Also a lot of people don't want children. It's a lot of responsabilities and constraints, so you need to feel the desired for it. The new generation grew with aids, feel less influenced by the authority selling the one family lifestyle and use more contraception. Now wait for Vasalgel to take off. When males will have total control of their involvment in pregnancy, you will see the numbers go down even more. And prob…

> Also a lot of people don't want children. It's a lot of responsabilities and constraints, so you need to feel the desired for it.

This is true, but are enough people feeling liberated enough to not have kids to have this be a significant part of the lowered birth rate?

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#108

Post by pavel_lishin » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 1:54 PM UTC

nunez wrote: post #34

Why would we have kids and suffer when we could not have kids and enjoy life to the fullest? We make just enough to have a really good life without kids or have a really stressful life with them. We don’t even have a house yet (and I mostly don’t want one, but that’s another conversation). I ran the numbers, and I didn’t like the outcome. Everyone that I know that has kids is sleep deprived, unable to do much of anyt…

The equation is different for everyone. I'm sleep deprived, and my social life - and personal time - have definitely suffered. But it's worth it, for me.

If you don't think it is for you, don't let other people convince you otherwise.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#109

Post by Jedd » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 2:01 PM UTC

AIX2ESXI wrote: post #38

Jedd wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I notice that a lot of your comments are declared as absolute truths, often applying to large demographics, without much to back those claims up. It feels like you've got strong opinions (that's perfectly okay!) and think your view of the world is shared by many / most other people (this, not so much).

I read a lot of studies and listen to political scientist lectures who draw the same conclusions that I do (Charles Murray. Victor David Hanson). Most times, I am too lazy to link to the case studies or books that discuss my points. Guilty as charged for having strong opinions; however, when I try to discuss them I am attacked, vilified and down voted into oblivion. Do this often enough and you will start to get rese…

Thank you for your very candid response.

I trust that you'll take my comments in good faith.

Smart people often tend to assume extremes of the people they're talking to - either that they're very smart, like themselves, or very dumb. Naturally, there's a spectrum.

Having strong opinions, as you note, can sometimes put people off -- but you say that when you try to discuss them you feel attacked. I felt from your comments in this thread that you weren't here to discuss [your opinions]. I may be misinterpreting, of course, and it'd be up to you to decide if this, and other exchanges are going as you'd expected.

I appreciate the appeal of like-minded individuals -- though I've yet to find any : ) -- and I'm cheered to see that you're wary of the echo chamber risk. If it's a genuine concern, rather than hyperbole, that it may (have) led to some extreme anti-social / violent incidents, then I'd strongly and seriously encourage you to talk to people more experienced than randos on HN.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#110

Post by pavel_lishin » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 2:06 PM UTC

sbinthree wrote: post #46

As a 24 year old married man sitting in the nursery with my premature son, I feel truly sad that more people cannot experience this. I don't have a house, I rent my apartment, we share a car and we both (were) working. So what? Time marches on. So many people seem cynical about having kids or doing anything else involving sacrificing happiness for meaning. And yet people complain of indulgence and a lack of meaning?…

> If you do, have them. They will not starve and you won't either.

Plenty of Americans live in poverty, and plenty of kids go hungry every day. "Have kids, things will magically turn out fine" is terrible advice. "Have kids and start a company, two of the most stressful things a person can do" is also terrible advice.

Congratulations on the birth of your son, and I wish you and your family all the best; I've got a two year old tot at home, and I love her and I'm glad I have her. But it's not for everyone, and not all times are equally good to start a family.