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Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

latimes.com

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Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#451

Post by pwinnski »

forgottenpass wrote: post #439
dingaling wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...one can't help but think, "then WTF is it good for, if I still have to drive the car myself while using it?" And why are Tesla burning karma by promoting this technology? For SpaceX, self-landing rockets are a direct method of reducing costs. For Tesla, sort-of-self-driving cars are a distraction from the core product and are tainting the brand. Stick to selling top-tier electric vehicles with human-driving, peo…

>To me it's am example of what happens when software developers run the asylum. Except if the rumors about turnover in the Tesla software team are true, the exact opposite is the case. The hot goss is that they're under pressure to meet unrealistic goals, not vomiting their own hubris into the product.

In this case, read "software developers" as "Elon Musk," and the metaphor makes sense.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#452

Post by mikeash »

DannyBee wrote: post #307
mikeash wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm extremely skeptical that there have been zero TACC-involved crashes with other cars. Has the NTSB or other organization actually put out a statement to that effect somewhere, or are you just basing this on an inability to locate any when searching?

Again, please provide any data that says otherwise. At all. Any! So far the data in this conversation has been incredibly one sided, with me providing data, and you providing skepticism. These systems exist in a lot of cars, yet nothing until Tesla suggests any issues anywhere (i'm ignoring things like news reports which are fairly biased) Therefore, the extraordinary claim is not that Tesla is worse, it's that Tesla…

The "data" you've provided so far consists of:

1) A link to IIHS crash avoidance test results. The Model S got a perfect score in those results, so those results don't at all support any claim that the Model S is worse. (I can certainly accept that the test is not definitive and the Model S could be worse than others while still getting a perfect score. My point is merely that this is not relevant data.)

2. A mention of 18 crashes with Autopilot enabled. Without a baseline to compare it to or at least some sort of rate based on the total fleet activity, this is more of an anecdote than data. Note that the average American driver crashes about once every 18 years (https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2011/07/27/how-man...) and there are around 175,000 Teslas on American roads right now (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115454_tesla-expects-2...). If Tesla drivers crash at the average rate, we'd expect to see about 175000/18/365 = 26.6 Tesla crashes every day, and that's just in the US. 18 Autopilot crashes ever is... not very high.

3. A completely unsourced and frankly implausible claim that the crash rate for other manufacturers' driver assistance features is zero.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#453

Post by askafriend »

shanghaiaway wrote: post #302
askafriend wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that your list doesn't answer the most important questions and trying to proxy any information from a selected list like that is flawed thinking.

Tesla does not answer the most important questions about their own product.

That's a fair position to hold, I concede that.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#454

Post by wang_li »

slg wrote: post #402
wang_li wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other factors that influence fatalities in automobile accidents. You can't legitimately use deaths per miles driven as a proxy for how good a driver Tesla's autopilot feature is.

Sure, which is why I said we had no conclusive data. However, at the very least no red flags have popped up in the statistics. Think of it like flipping a coin 3 times and we got heads all three times. That is not nearly enough to judge whether the coin is fair, but we are probably getting close to concluding that the coin isn't weighted heavily in favor of tails. The sample size is still small but nothing in the sta…

But we don't need statistics to know that Autopilot isn't as good a driver as a human. By Tesla's own statements Autopilot can't autonomously operate a car, it requires a person to be at the wheel and engaged with driving. By definition this means that autopilot is a worse driver than a human driver as it cannot drive at all.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#455

Post by admyral »

redial wrote: post #321
admyral wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense but this is exactly the attitude that inhibits progress and led the auto industry to languish in mediocrity for years. If you wait until the technology would prevent all accidents, you'd be waiting forever.

Your attitude is inhibiting progress. Everybody knows the technology is not ready and everyone is fine with it and willing to face the consequences of refining it. Everyone except Tesla that is, which insists their self-driving tech is so advanced they even call it autopilot encouraging people to treat it as such and refuse to admit any fault in this mess.

> Everybody knows the technology is not ready And by what standards are you gauging its not ready? My point was if you wait until it becomes "safe enough", you'll be waiting forever because Tesla would be forever at the mercy of whose rules govern what "safe" means. Roads are hazardous places and unfortunately accidents are going to happen.

What I do know is that the Autopilot system will never be distracted, will never fall asleep, will never drive intoxicated or recklessly, will never disobey traffic laws like humans do. Tesla also has a financial incentive to improve their technology to prevent this from happening. Unlike humans who, for the most part, have far less incentive to drive more carefully.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#456

Post by jaredklewis »

slg wrote: post #348
userbinator wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but then if you strictly follow this rule, what is the benefit of autopilot? Indeed. When reading Tesla's statement, "The Palo Alto-based automaker, led by Elon Musk, has said it repeatedly warns drivers to stay alert, keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicle at all times while using the Autopilot system." ...one can't help but think, "then WTF is it good for , if I still have to drive the…

>This is subtly different from cruise control, which lets you concentrate on steering and rest your foot on the brake so you can use it quickly if needed. Cruise control doesn't encourage lowering attention, but enhances it. What has lead you to this conclusion? Autopilot is really just advanced cruise control. You can treat it the exact same way by leaving your foot on the brake and leaving a hand on the wheel. If p…

> If people aren't using it that way, that is certainly something Tesla should try to fix.

A good start would be to not call it auto pilot, and rename it to cruise control plus or whatever.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#457

Post by _Tev »

userbinator wrote: post #299
Too wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It moves your mind from micro to macro. Instead of focusing on balancing the car within the lane I can look 500m in front and plan further ahead. I can also spend 2 seconds with eyes off road adjusting the navigation compared to without where you can only spend maybe max 0.5sec. I also feel much fresher after a long trip, constant minor adjustments sounds minor but once you've driven with a good lane keeping aid(not…

It still feels like you are driving but the path of least resistance is always pulling you towards the center of the lane. ...except when it doesn't, and you're forced to suddenly comprehend the unusual situation and react before its too late: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QCF8tVqM3I

That was not 2s but 4s and you could predict that happening even before that. Does not seem like especially dangerous situation when you approach autopilot as GP does.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#458

Post by abalone »

_Tev wrote: post #457
userbinator wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still feels like you are driving but the path of least resistance is always pulling you towards the center of the lane. ...except when it doesn't, and you're forced to suddenly comprehend the unusual situation and react before its too late: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QCF8tVqM3I

That was not 2s but 4s and you could predict that happening even before that. Does not seem like especially dangerous situation when you approach autopilot as GP does.

Totally disagree. Someone was literally killed there. Realistically “2 seconds” could be understating the length of the distraction, plus it takes you a certain amount of time to mentally re-engage and understand what is going on. Especially in a weird situation like that.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#459

Post by SquareWheel »

azinman2 wrote: post #444
SquareWheel wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we make the eventual evolution from faux self-driving to full self-driving if not through incremental improvements? I'm far from an expert on the subject, but I assume real data must be acquired for that to happen.

You raise the bar of what you need to deliver which will change your approach, and don’t ship products that aren't ready.

It seems to me that delaying self-driving cars for any appreciable amount of time will lead to more deaths/injuries, not fewer.

Re: Tesla in autopilot mode crashes into parked Laguna Beach police cruiser

#460

Post by DannyBee »

mikeash wrote: post #452
DannyBee wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, please provide any data that says otherwise. At all. Any! So far the data in this conversation has been incredibly one sided, with me providing data, and you providing skepticism. These systems exist in a lot of cars, yet nothing until Tesla suggests any issues anywhere (i'm ignoring things like news reports which are fairly biased) Therefore, the extraordinary claim is not that Tesla is worse, it's that Tesla…

The "data" you've provided so far consists of: 1) A link to IIHS crash avoidance test results. The Model S got a perfect score in those results, so those results don't at all support any claim that the Model S is worse. (I can certainly accept that the test is not definitive and the Model S could be worse than others while still getting a perfect score. My point is merely that this is not relevant data.) 2. A mention…

So, then still zero data from you to back up any of your theories up, at all, but still more skepticism and random crapping on literally the only data provided so far.

Okay, i'm out.

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