Woah, I was prepared to be all gung-ho for this post, given that I've suspected the winter was going to be here for quite a while now. But strangely, this post actually caused the opposite effect for me. The winter will probably come one day, but is all the evidence the poster can find? Andrew NG tweeting less and a statement that DNNs doesn't scale based on flimsy data is not at all convincing to me.
AI winter is well on its way
251–260 of 518 posts
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#252This is something I always wondered about AI and it promises. Sometimes, the last 1% is the hardest or can be even impossible. Self-driving cars, in particular, are a good case. We get to solve 99% of the use cases but achieving full autonomous vehicles might be just out of reach.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#253Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The chess version beat a leading conventional chess program 28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws. In a not equal fight, and the results are still not published. I'm not claiming that AlphaZero wouldn't win, but that test was pure garbage.
The results were published - https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.01815 I agree AlphaZero had fancier hardware and so it wasn't really a fair fight.
Stockfish is not designed to scale to supercomputing clusters or TPUs, Alpha Zero wasn't designed to account for how long it takes to make a move, fair fight was hard to arrange.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#254Only tangentially related to the article, but it's always struck me as a little unethical that Demis Hassabis' name goes on every paper that's written by Deepmind. No-one produces that much research output.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#255A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
Hi, author here: Well first off: letters to investors are among the most biased pieces of writing in existence. Second: I'm not saying connectionism did not succeed in many areas! I'm a connectionist by heart! I love connectionism! But that being said there is disconnect between the expectations and reality. And it is huge. And it is particularly visible in autonomous driving. And it is not limited to media or CEO's,…
Very interesting points...
The disconnect between the expectations and reality. Well, to some degree you will always have it, but that is a very interesting facet, and I concur that it is somewhat increasing. It has in the recent past, and it still is..
> And it is not limited to media or CEO's, but it made its way into top researchers.
Interesting. One would assume that top researchers would be more "immune" than anyone else, but if it's true what you say and it already made its way.. For the record, I think you are onto something here.
What would be your favorite pet theory that explains this phenomenon? Do you believe it has something to do with this culture of "fake it till you make it", as if we have forgotten the value of honesty?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think for most people, the research interest in games of various sorts, is not simply a desire for a better and better game contraption, a better mousetrap. But rather the thinking is, "playing games takes intelligence, what can we learn about intelligence by building machines that play games?" Most games are also closed systems, and conveniently grokkable systems, with enumerable search spaces. Which gives us easi…
This is so true, I can't understand why people miss this. The games are just games. It's intelligence that is the goal. And comparing Alpha Go Zero against those "other chess programs that existed for 30 years" is exactly missing the point also. Those programs were not constructed with zero-knowledge. They were carefully crafted by human players to achieve the result. Are we also going to count in all the brain proce…
The thing is that you can learn new moves/strategies that were never thought about before in these games but you still doesn't understand anything about intelligence at all.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hi, author here: Well first off: letters to investors are among the most biased pieces of writing in existence. Second: I'm not saying connectionism did not succeed in many areas! I'm a connectionist by heart! I love connectionism! But that being said there is disconnect between the expectations and reality. And it is huge. And it is particularly visible in autonomous driving. And it is not limited to media or CEO's,…
Hi, why in your analysis you spoke only about the companies that are not doing so well in self driving leaving out waymo success story? They are already have been hauling passengers without a safety pilot since last October. I guess without the minimum problem otherwise we would have heard plenty in the news like it happened for Tesla and Uber accidents. Is it not too convenient to leave out the facts that contradict…
Is this happening inside google campus or in a city?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#258A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
> understand images in Google Photos
This is one of the areas I’m most enthusiastic about but … it’s still nowhere near the performance of untrained humans. Google has poured tons of resources into Photos and yet if I type “cat” into the search box I have to scroll past multiple pages of results to find the first picture which isn’t of my dog.
That raises an interesting question: Google has no way to report failures. Does anyone know why they aren’t collecting that training data?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#259Disclaimer: I am a lay technical person and don't know much about AI. I find this article somewhat condescending. I look at all the current development as stepping stones to progress, not an overnight success that does everything flawlessly. I imagine the future might be some combination of different solutions, and what the author proposes may or may not play a part in it.
it's not a stepping stone, if you look closely it's a dead end
What do you see exactly when you look closely and how do you know it is dead end?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not like humanity really needs another chess playing program 20 years after IBM solved that problem (but now utilizing 1000x more compute power). I just find all these game playing contraptions really uninteresting. There are plenty real world problems to be solved of much higher practicality. Moravec's paradox in full glow.
It's not like the research on games is at the expense of other more worthy goals. It is a well constrained problem that lets you understand the limitations of your method. Great for making progress. Alpha zero didn't just play chess well, it learned how to play chess well (and could generalize to other games). I'd forgive it 10000 times the resources for that.
> It is a well constrained problem
But attacking not-well-constrained problems is what's needed to show real progress in AI these days, right?