I think that we will have AI Winter once we see the true limitations that face us having a level 5 fully autonomous self driving car. The other thing we will see happen is the deflation of the AdTech bubble. Once we see both of these events occurring that should start the AI Winter.
AI winter is well on its way
11–20 of 518 posts
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#12AI and machine learning is a tool. Like any other tool it's perfect for some problems and doesn't work well for other. Pick the right tools for the problem that you are working on. Don't follow the hype and don't use AI/ML just for sake of using it.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#13Truly, I agree. I've long been interested in learning about AI and deep learning, but to this day haven't done much that truly excites me within the field. It feels more or less impossible to make anything significant without Google-scale databases and Google-scale computers. AI really does make it easier for the few to jump far ahead, leaving everyone behind. I also agree that a lot the news around AI is just hype.…
I'm kinda curious now where those giant datasets will come from now that there's a big push for privacy with things like GDPR preventing some random researcher from just buying data off whatever data mining corp is most relevant to their AI's purpose
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#14A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors:
“The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.”
He listed many examples below the quote.
“understand images in Google Photos;
enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely;
significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware;
understand and produce speech for Google Home;
translate over 100 languages in Google Translate;
caption over a billion videos in 10 languages on YouTube;
improve the efficiency of our data centers;
help doctors diagnose diseases, such as diabetic retinopathy;
discover new planetary systems; ...”
https://abc.xyz/investor/founders-letters/2017/index.html
An example from another continent:
“To build the database, the hospital said it spent nearly two years to study more than 100,000 of its digital medical records spanning 12 years. The hospital also trained the AI tool using data from over 300 million medical records (link in Chinese) dating back to the 1990s from other hospitals in China. The tool has an accuracy rate of over 90% for diagnoses for more than 200 diseases, it said.“
https://qz.com/1244410/faced-with-a-doctor-shortage-a-chines...
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#15A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
Hi, author here:
Well first off: letters to investors are among the most biased pieces of writing in existence.
Second: I'm not saying connectionism did not succeed in many areas! I'm a connectionist by heart! I love connectionism! But that being said there is disconnect between the expectations and reality. And it is huge. And it is particularly visible in autonomous driving. And it is not limited to media or CEO's, but it made its way into top researchers. And that is a dangerous sign, which historically preceded a winter event...
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#16A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
completely overblown..
'understand' isn't true understanding
'recognize and distinguish' is nothing like how humans do it
'helping diagnose diseases' notice they don't say the AI is doing the diagnoses anymore
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#17I would not call it the “AI winter”. If you look at what people have called AI over time, the definition and the approaches have evolved (sometimes drastically) over time.
Instead of being stuck on the fact that deep learning and the current methods seem to have hit a limit I think I am actually excited about the fact that this opens the door for experimenting other approaches that may or may not build on top of what we call AI today.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#18I would not call it the “AI winter”. If you look at what people have called AI over time, the definition and the approaches have evolved (sometimes drastically) over time. Instead of being stuck on the fact that deep learning and the current methods seem to have hit a limit I think I am actually excited about the fact that this opens the door for experimenting other approaches that may or may not build on top of what…
Yeah, the problem is deep learning sucked a bunch of money - essentially took a loan against the future in the form of VC investments. And if that loan does not get payed, for the next few years you may not afford to explore all that other stuff.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#19A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
>caption over a billion videos in 10 languages on YouTube;
Utterly useless. And I don't think it is improving.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#20Disclaimer: I am a lay technical person and don't know much about AI.
I find this article somewhat condescending. I look at all the current development as stepping stones to progress, not an overnight success that does everything flawlessly. I imagine the future might be some combination of different solutions, and what the author proposes may or may not play a part in it.