A surreal and sad vision.
The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
191–200 of 245 posts
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#192Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#193The top 10% is 120k in income or 1.2m in net worth -- would be nice to see the demographics. In any case, 1.2m in net worth is a house with some retirement money, not exactly what I would call aristocracy.
And yet it's more than 90.1% of the population posesses... Interestingly, some estimates of (formal) Polish aristocracy in the 17th century place it around 10% of the population. Maybe this is just some natural distribution of socio-econo-political status of human groups.
* People are in school until age 20.
* Assets at age 20 are 0.
* People work until age 65.
* People die at age 85.
* Assets at death are 0.
Assume that inflation and investment returns are 0. After-tax income while working is uniform, say at $100k/year. Expenses are uniform. We'll pretend expenses before age 20 are 0 (covered by taxes). A really super-simplified model.
Total lifetime after-tax income is $4.5 million. This is 65 years worth of expenses, so expenses are $69231/year.
Peak wealth, at 65, is $1,384,605. Wealth around that peak is distributed like so as a function of age:
59 -- $1,199,991
60 -- $1,230,760
61 -- $1,261,529
62 -- $1,292,298
63 -- $1,323,067
64 -- $1,353,836
65 -- $1,384,605
66 -- $1,315,284
67 -- $1,245,963
The top 10% of the population by wealth are all in that age range (because 9/85 > 1/10). Note that by construction this is a perfectly equal society.The point is, looking at wealth numbers without considering lifecycle effects is usually pointless. Yes, having a paid-off house and a bunch of saved-up retirement money is not something most people have. It's something that generally only people approaching retirement would have. Younger folks have neither yet; someone who has been retired for a while may have the former but no longer the latter.
Now looking at wealth distributions while holding age constants is a more interesting exercise. You can still run into issues because of differences in lifeycles, of course. As a simple example, what can one say about the lifetime earning prospects of a 30-year old making $60k a year? Well, it sure depends on whether they're an elementary school teacher or a neurosurgery resident.
Unfortunately, good analysis of this stuff is hard. It's even hard to figure out what sort of questions make sense to ask....
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#194A clever manipulation piece: It melds 1% multi-millionaires with upper-middle class to create some kind of bourgeois enemy. In reality these 32 million people have different lifestyles, sources of income and their networth does not indicate true wealth: they could be living in an expensive house that they bought much cheaper, but a few trips into a hospital will bankrupt them. The whole concept of "net worth" is high…
Not accounting for people's home equity when determining their wealth is one of the most bonkers bougie things I've ever heard. Should we not count their 401k savings either, because "if X took the early withdrawal penalty" isn't fair either? If you're rich, you're rich. It makes no difference if that wealth is tied up in illiquid assets. If the precarity if your financial situation is based on the fact that you're w…
Just for the record i'm NOT some "free-market will fix it" capitalist: I'm in favor of sane, Scandinavian-like system of democracy(also promoted by Bernie Sanders as democratic socialism) which exist with support of high taxes. I'm against gulags, wealth redistribution and marking people as class traitors/privileged/"eat the Rich", to which any communist country eventually devolves.
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a big debate in the HN world too, where tech workers in that top 10% think they are working class. The real breakdown here is that in todays day and age, there's hardly a middle class, there's the working class who struggles, lives basically paycheck to paycheck, and at the age of 45 has up to 40k in wealth to their name. Then there's that top 10% whose able to afford a million dollar home, take yearly vacati…
If you are still working you are not part of the richest class. Measuring income per year misses the richest group of all. Those who would look down on anyone working.
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#196Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#197In the past, nobody really attacked the rich because so many Americans think they'll one day be in their shoes. In 2003, we learned that 19% of Americans think they are in the richest 1% and a further 20% expect to be someday [1]. People have slowly woken up to the fact that their math was way off and class mobility doesn't really work that way. The brief "Occupy" movement and the identification of the 1% as a specie…
Eh, I feel that was done more by the increased focus on social issues and race/gender/whatever tensions to be honest. Isn't it super convenient that all these identity politics wars came about JUST after Occupy and the possibility the rich were going to be in the firing line? Or that class usually isn't mentioned there?
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#198Some of the points about privilege might be accurate, but breaking economic status in to .1%, 9.9%, and 90% is arbitrary and misleading. The author tries to make the point that “the 9.9%” have the majority of the wealth and this issue is as big or bigger than the concentration of wealth at the very top. The problem is that this is largely an artifact of the division system. The distribution is highly skewed, and the…
I wonder who paid Matthew Stewart, an Oxford-educated management consultant for "large financial institutions,"[1] to write such an article.
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't care about class competition, nor do I need a "lot" (by the standards of the wealthy) of things to be happy in life. But I like things (art, collectibles) that wouldn't exist except for social competition of the rich, regardless of whether I will ever own them. I like that they exist. When people won't shut up about how terrible possessions and competition are, it tells me they are so torn up and conflicted a…
I mean, it's undeniable that the rich create luxury goods that are often aesthetically pleasing, but they are items that are enjoyed almost exclusively by the rich. At most, the average person might observe one of these on the street. Publicly funded art would create accessible beautiful things, not merely inaccessible toys you can dream about but never have. EDIT: I kind of feel like this argument is like, well if w…
You could say the public could do those, but now you have to deal with creation by a public committee, which may water down more cutting edge ideas due to the effects of populism.
A billionaire can just make it happen, regardless of what the public thinks. They aren't responsible to the public in their art.
Can you imagine trying to gather public funds for a new university in the age of Trump & Sanders. LOL it's not happening.
Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this is a little different. It's not the whole methodology that's the problem. It's the non-standard bin-sizes. If he wants to do log or exponential sizes, then it's 90.1, 9, .9 or you could round it off to 90, 9, and 1. By making it 90, 9.9 and .1, then he's artificially inflated the middle bin size while simultaneously exclaiming that this bin has more wealth in it than expected. It's like having a y-axis o…
9.9 is the top ten percent minus the .1 percent - he agrees the .1% are a problem, but wants to address his own class, the rest of the top 10% = 9.9%. That bin has the size it has, and the measured effects he points to presumably deduct the stats for the .1%. There's no trickery, just a stat or two to conjure with. If you think he's skewed the measure by using mean instead of median or mode and not subtracting the co…
Even simple PCA would figure it out.