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America has a truck driver shortage

washingtonpost.com

81–90 of 404 posts

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#81
They are terrible jobs. Years ago I had a class B and drove dial-a-ride buses. All-in-all it wasn't a terrible job because I got frequent breaks between passengers and could get out of the truck on those breaks and hang out at a mall or get something to eat. My counterparts that drove the city buses had to stay in their seat for 8 hours driving in circles around town.

The other thing that people don't realize about those kind of jobs is, for men at least, they are very hard on your prostate. Sitting for such long periods can cause it to swell leading to prosatitus along with a whole host of other bad health effects. All that being said, our jobs were cake compared to long haulers. You would need to pay people $120-150k before you could get a consistent hiring pool.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#82
post #2

I am so sick of this perpetual fallacy about labor shortages. If you can't find enough workers it means you need to raise the price you're offering. (But yasp the article cited one particular firm has already increased prices 15% this year.) Doesn't matter. There is a certain price at which the market will clear. If the market isn't clearing it's because the price being offered is too low. Keep trying.

I think a so-called labor shortage can be defined as an inelastic supply under given circumstances. There are always limits to how markets can be idealized - if you offered me $100K, $1M, or $1B to drive a truck across the country tomorrow, it wouldn't make any difference, I still couldn't qualify.

There is likely a gap between the salary a current truck driver will take and the one a potential truck driver will take, because the people who are not already doing it not only need some training but are likely to view it as a dying industry due to publicity about self-driving vehicles. So it seems like there could be substantial inelasticity just above the typical wage.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#83

From the article: A few drivers told The Washington Post that they earn $100,000, but many said their annual pay is less than $50,000 (government statistics say median pay for the industry is $42,000). As for the bonuses, driver Daniel Gollnick said they are a “complete joke” because of all the strings attached. Yet the headline talks about 80 kUSD/year.

This is the nature of truck driving, the headline has been $100k/yr job without the need of a degree for years, but in actuality, only those who work very hard & cheat the books get close to that. Are you willing to drive while sleepy, break regs when the customer is demanding you drive longer to deliver their products (due to traffic delaying you or similar)? Its a really screwed up industry.

Agreed, my hope is that it isn't a foreshadow for other industries. Once breaking regs and cheating (whatever that looks like for a given industry) become part of the revenue forecast. It’s pretty hard for market participants to compete without doing those things.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#84
Trucking pays great on paper when you are an owner-operator. This means you own (and insure) the truck, pay for gas, and insure the load. You cover maintaince, and you cover finding yourself new loads to haul. You personally carry the fiscal risk. Your take home pay is AMAZING, but it doesn’t factor in your expenses.

Most truckers work as members of a fleet. Where a larger company handles the contracting, insurance, fuel, and maintenance while the drivers are paid to drive. This job can pay ~40-60k/yr.

This article tries to paint a world where truckers are fabulously paid. Why would nobody want to work this job?

But in reality it’s a very stressful job underpaid job. And a small subset of truckers manage to become well paid contractors but the VAST MAJORITY aren’t. This swings the average/high end pay into idiotic territory.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does make sense, you don’t need “infinite” amount of money. Pay a driver $200k a year. Or give them an 8 hour workday, and week off week on schedules so they can see their family. There’s many solutions, all of them involve incentivizing people to become drivers. If people want their Amazon orders so bad, they’ll end up paying. And if they don’t, then they have to re-prioritize what they want.

I wouldn't re-train as a truck driver for $200k a year? Would you? And you can't just say 'there's lots of people for whom $200k would be a lot of money' because there's a lot of people who whom $50k is a lot of money and those jobs aren't filled either. Short of literally offering a million dollars a year, it's got to be more complicated than how much you offer.

If $1m/year is the price, then that's the price.

If there are alternatives available that use less or cheaper labor, then people will use those instead.

There's no cap for any price. And if the alternatives are cheaper, then maybe that type of business doesn't need to exist in the economy.

That's supply and demand.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#86
post #2

I am so sick of this perpetual fallacy about labor shortages. If you can't find enough workers it means you need to raise the price you're offering. (But yasp the article cited one particular firm has already increased prices 15% this year.) Doesn't matter. There is a certain price at which the market will clear. If the market isn't clearing it's because the price being offered is too low. Keep trying.

Labor shortages absolutely exist. If there are 100 jobs requiring a specific skill and only 97 people exist who have that skill, that's a labor shortage. Those companies can compete for those workers all they want, but it doesn't magically create 3 new workers.

Those shortages create opportunities and more people train to fill those gaps but it takes some amount of time before 3 new workers are available.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#87
post #6
post #2

I am so sick of this perpetual fallacy about labor shortages. If you can't find enough workers it means you need to raise the price you're offering. (But yasp the article cited one particular firm has already increased prices 15% this year.) Doesn't matter. There is a certain price at which the market will clear. If the market isn't clearing it's because the price being offered is too low. Keep trying.

Our economy has split into areas where in some areas "talent" can get almost infinite amounts of money and in other areas it's simply not conceivable to pay people more. I wonder how free market people explain this. Based on the market theories I have heard it doesn't make sense.

The people getting almost infinite amounts of money are making the rules and setting the terms of the dialogue.

Because to do so is a tactic for maximizing the amount of money they get, that being their self interest.

When you see this sort of 'workers are fussy and childish even though they're treated and paid incredibly well!' business, it's safe to read it as 'reality has come knocking, and the reports of wonderful conditions and pay are greatly exaggerated'. It's like asking what's wrong with millenials that they're not buying enough diamonds.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#88
At a rough point in my life, I was a truck driver for CR England and Knight Transportation for a few days short of 7 months.

You don’t start at 80,000 a year. That’s such a lie. You make about 600 a week to start, roughly, depending if you get enough miles. You don’t get the good routes, staying in well populated areas like the i5 corridor, at first. You stay in the middle of no where Arizona, North Dakota, etc.

You spend a lot on food because you can’t buy bulk that easily like you would for an apartment. Want a hot meal? You have to eat at fast food restaurants or truck stops.

How’s your back? 7 months I went from never understanding back pain to 6 years later I still suffer from the back pain.

Family life? HA! How does that work when you VISIT home for 3 days out of a month and you get calls CONSTANTLY that you have to get back to the truck. It’s not likely the military where you are doing something decently important. You are wasting your life to ship clothes for the Gap or frozen pizzas.

You are constantly sleep deprived. Constantly sitting. The companies hound you constantly about speeding up and trying to break the law to get loads faster to their destination because they screwed up the logistics and didn’t do some simple math. Yes, they publicly say they don’t tell drivers to break the law. Bullshit. CR England is the worst about this. Knight wasn’t so bad.

Fuck driving jersey in a truck.

The industry needs MASSIVE reformation. Then, some of the arguements here by folks who never did it can be remotely valid. You ruin your personal life and your body for realistic 300 a week after you figure all the costs for not ever being home.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#89
A lot of people are putting forth this notion that the market just isn't offering enough compensation for the jobs, and that's why they're not being filled.

That may be true. It probably is true.

But here's something else to consider: the alternative of not working, especially for people who may do these particular jobs, is fairly competitive. With enough welfare, government assistance, and cheap easy-to-access entertainment, getting a job looks worse and worse (less necessary), so would-be employees won't bother as much at current market rates.

Companies will therefore need to offer higher and higher wages for these jobs to fill them. The same story has been unfolding in China with regards to manufacturing: these "$2/hour" jobs which seem terrible were actually amazing prospects for a half billion rural inhabitants, who were able to move to the city, work and save up money, and provide more for their families than they ever could.

But once those families have higher standards of living, the next generation (their kids) don't need to take these jobs. They could, and they would still make some money, but they don't need to, so they'd rather go to school for the hopes of something better (an office job with AC), or just not work, because saving up marginally more money when you already have most of your needs met on your smartphone and through your parents just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. This is the psychology: my family has some stability, I don't need to work like they did. I can aim for something better. This is not a moral judgement - sometimes it's true, sometimes it's not. On the whole it's a good thing.

So what's going to happen in either case is automation through technological progress. These jobs will disappear as companies invest in their destruction. Why not try out this startup's experimental self-driving truck, rather than raise my total truck driver comp. package to $90K? Obviously a ton of reasons for most companies. But the economic pros/cons will shift towards the technology faster and faster.

And then what for the people who need these kind of jobs, what happens when they disappear? In the West, it seems as if we're moving to some kind of income redistribution scheme, based on taxing the owners and producers of the technology. So essentially: increase the welfare. This seems like a relatively stable short-term solution. But what happens when you're left with a large underclass of unemployed people, and a small upper-class of producers? It's not good, and not long-term stable. Look up the Gini Coefficient, one of the most fundamental social science discoveries, and see for yourself:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/08/income-inequ...

All the taxing and redistribution in the world isn't going to help this. We're a global economy now, so unless you trap the rich in one area, they're going to move eventually.

In summary - I see big problems ahead the next few decades relating to these issues, and I don't see a good long-term solution just yet.

Re: America has a truck driver shortage

#90
post #2

I am so sick of this perpetual fallacy about labor shortages. If you can't find enough workers it means you need to raise the price you're offering. (But yasp the article cited one particular firm has already increased prices 15% this year.) Doesn't matter. There is a certain price at which the market will clear. If the market isn't clearing it's because the price being offered is too low. Keep trying.

That doesn't always work as is the case for farm work once you make immigration harder. How many Americans if given a choice would rather make $40K a year doing nice and comfortable office work than make $120K a year (yes I'm making up a number to make a point) to do back breaking manual labor in the hot sun? Not quite to that extreme, but I'm giving up money now by choosing not to go into management and stay a senio…

Considering that a huge number of Americans already do back breaking labor in the hot sun for $40k a year or less (usually quite significantly less), I think they would love to make $120k a year for farm work.
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