Live data from Hacker News

US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

npr.org

211–220 of 434 posts

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#211
post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

Also, children of immigrants have the highest attainment of all https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02727...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#212
post #33
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can change our economic structures. We can't change the fact that exponential growth is unsustainable. So this way at least there is hope.

Replacement level fertility is by definition non-exponential (or if you prefer, has an exponent of 1.) A reasonable number of macroeconomists would be ok with replacement-level fertility. The economics get really bad when the birth rate falls below replacement though - you get fewer workers supporting more retirees, which has the bad consequences you can see now in Japan.

Do you know of any studies that look for opportunities in declining populations? There seems to be a tendency for people to label declining populations as 'bad' and proceed from there as opposed to asking 'what are the benefits as well as the harms of this trend?'

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare. Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our g…

Yes. A friend of mine is very much an uninvolved father. His wife handles all the child-rearing and housekeeping, while he plays videogames, often while drinking. I've mentioned to him that he should probably be more involved, but it's not my place or responsibility to tell him he's failing as a husband and father. In his defence, he's still a better father than his own father ever was, but that's not exactly a high…

I’m not sure... I get your point and understand how you feel. But having seen it a few times, and the effect it has on the wife and child, I can’t be friends with people who act like this anymore.

I just feel like I’m normalizing their actions by acting like it’s no big deal. I think one of the reasons that this kind of attitude amongst fathers continues, is because it’s seen as somewhat normal and socially acceptable.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#214
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America integrated large immigrant waves in it's past, and I doubt anyone would say the Italians, or Irish, or other minorities were not integrated today. Time bridges cultures, and we're the better for it.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

Not really true, especially for southern Sicilians Italians

They shared neither language nor religion (US was overwhelmingly protestant). At the time, they were considered a distinct race from your typical white American due to their Sicilian heritage. Their diet was also significantly different, to the point where some states actually sent out social workers teaching Italian families to cook "American" foods -- the fear being their pasta-heavy diets would prevent them from integrating. Politically, they were far more pro-labor and were viewed as agitators, socialists and anarchists -- far removed from the political mainstream during the roaring 20s. They were hated and feared enough that there was a mass lynching of 11 Italian-Americans in Louisiana.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it that birth rates have gone down though? Many factors, mostly economic, which should be addressed instead of importing millions of people who will soon be replaced by automation anyways.

People used to have many more kids regardless of whether they were facing good or bad times. I'd say the change is less economic and more due to culture - both men and women want less kids. There is economics in the cultural change - as people get wealthier and government welfare becomes more reliable the forces behind maintaining and growing the family decreases. Wealthy people in the past still had many more kids t…

I'd say it's because of two things: 1) the invention of reliable birth control (namely The Pill), and 2) the rise of women to equal citizenship status with men, instead of basically being slaves used for breeding.

Women are the ones who have to sacrifice the most for children, so now that they have a choice, they don't do it nearly as much: some have none, others only have 1 or 2 and they've had enough. For replacement rate, every woman needs to have 2.1 kids on average, and not nearly enough women want to have 3+ kids to make up for all the women having fewer (which also includes infertile women don't forget).

And also with men and women being much more equal, men are expected to invest much more effort in child-rearing now, instead of just banging their wives and then letting them deal with the consequences while they do other stuff with their time. Well they don't want to deal with 6 kids either, and many don't want to deal with any.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#216
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are more grandmas alive than ever in past. What is stopping you from doing it now ? Go live with grandma.

Grandma is either still working or far too busy living her own healthy and active life to want to be an unpaid full time nanny.

Why would she be unpaid, and why isn't family part of an active life, and why is grandma so much wealthier than her children?

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#217
post #149
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

You only have one life. Not having children means not living it fully (though it's mighty convenient). All the money in the world won't change that and it won't matter when you're gone anyway.

I don't think it's that black and white.

Yes, not having kids means missing out on certain (important) human life experiences. But so is if you DO have kids, it automatically means you will miss out on things that can't be done now because you don't have the money/time/etc that goes into having those kids. And in terms of "when you're gone away" I'm not seeing how having kids changes that, you still die and stop existing afterward, it's your kids that keep on living. You may feel good/proud about having them live after you die, just as an artist may feel good about their work living for many years in the minds of people. Personally I've decided to focus on one thing "make sure I don't regret too many things when I'm n my death bed". That means planning and doing things that I think I would regret not having done otherwise but of course, there will always be some regrets, simply because we always tend to regret/miss the things we haven't done if by no other reason.

We may prefer having kids over other things or vice versa but I disagree with a general state of the form "not having kids is a clear loss", there are pros and cons.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.

I would posit that the people coming here illegally to work are actually the most entrepreneurial, hard working, can-do people that we should welcome into our society. Judging based on what current socio-economic status they're at is short sighted. You'll see the same thing expressed in HN regarding employees at declining companies, the most desirable employees leave earlier...

Though I would add that doing it via a more realistic temporary work visa program would be preferable to encouraging an illegal crossing industry to flourish.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#219
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why is Germany, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Finland etc significantly below the US?

Historically, children generated profit. These days, in developed countries, children are expensive. They cost money and time (e.g., years that you would otherwise spend going to school, building a career).

Historically, parents were far less productive than we are now. People now just enjoy more material things than historically.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#220

What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?

In a debt-based growth-dependent (to repay ever the increasing debts) economy, it crashes everything. Turns out assuming infinite growth does not produce a stable civilization. This is why there are concomitantly erstwhile calls for people to both reduce their "footprint" by not reproducing and also that immigration is crucial to every (western) society's survival.

Do you know of any good example steady state economies for contrast?
Post reply on HN