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Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

bellingcat.com

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Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#21
post #18
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if you all of a sudden ordered "96 tons" of it out of the blue? I think the issue being brought to light is contrast to normal export/import of it to this region?

96 tons is nothing. http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=isopropyl&d=ComTrade&f=_l1Cod... According to the United Nations, Syria imported 1,916,504 kilograms of "Propyl alcohol and isopropyl alcohol" in 2010, 1,705,420 kilograms in 2009, 926,139 kilograms in 2008, and so on...

Cool, well, so long as someone is keeping track and following up. Thank you for digging up the information.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#22

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

It’s very clear that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, and the evidence is overwhelming that the Syrian government was behind the vast majority of the attacks.

I know of at least one tech company that compiles photos of the attacks, geo and time stamped, and the photos are beyond disturbing.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#23

Although this story is absurd it does show how the sanctions have been set out to cripple civilian life in Syria. Maybe they could ban shoe laces as they are used by the Assad regime, or maybe they could ban H2O since that could be used for making everything from sarin to nuclear weapons, hat would teach them. It is also interesting how this internet is connecting people with lies rather than people.

dhmo.org still exists and I still use it as a teaching resource. (If it isn't obvious, yes, I know. I use it to teach people to be critical to what they read.)

What about the scourge of hydroxic acid? I mean come on it's acid!

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#24
post #9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^ this is why we should never trust news/current-affairs site that disables its comments section

There's more than enough forums to debunk weird/bad articles, starting with Twitter. Comments section tend to be filled with anonymous trolls fulls of conspiracy theories, I would prefer to see a rebunk from someone that has some kind of reputation within the field.

Let the comments speak for themselves. Don't hide them behind a barrier. Freedom of expression is more important than protecting people from reading mean ideas about their favorite politician etc.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#25

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

I agree with you in principle (that it's likely this is for use as rubbing alcohol, not as an industrial precursor), but in theory, there is still something going on here. Number one, they are able to track the volume and destinations of the trade. It would be weird to see a large fluctuation in exports-- why would Syrian consumers suddenly begin demanding or abandoning their use of rubbing alcohol? Demand is most li…

According to the United Nations, Syria imported 1,916,504 kilograms of "Propyl alcohol and isopropyl alcohol" in 2010, 1,705,420 kilograms in 2009, 926,139 kilograms in 2008, and so on...

...To quote another here.

Isopropyl alcohol is not an organophosphate precursor.

https://cyber.sci-hub.hk/MTAuMTAwMi9zbGN0LjIwMTcwMjc2Mw==/qu...

Precursors of CW agents are chemicals which have relatively small molecules, that may be used for the synthesis of other toxic products such as organophosphorous pesticides.[1,2] Direct precursors of nerve agents are those chemicals that can be converted to nerve agents in one or two synthetic steps, and are those under strict surveillance by OPCW. Industrial com- pounds such as organophosphates (pesticides mainly), phos- gene, chlorine, and cyanide are precursors that are not difficult to obtain.[3] On the other side, synthesis of methylphosphono- fluoridates (G-agents) and V-agents is not direct because of the absence of a large-scale commercial source of the key organo- phosphorous precursors: methylphosphonyl dichloride (Me- POCl2) and methylphosphonyl difluoride (MePOF2). However, impure nerve agent could be easily synthesized, as it was in the case of terrorist attacks in Tokyo subway in Japan in 1995.

Precursors for sarin, tabun, and G-series agents are sources of fluorine, usually bifluorides. Ammonium or Sodium bifluoride for example, is absolutely a precursor (although it has some non-essential, legitimate industrial uses) For sarin, you must have a source of fluorine atoms, so it can be sensible to control export of bifluoride compounds. While alcohol is used, it’s like trying to control the production of beer by interdicting water instead of malted barley. While malted barley has many uses, it’s not essential and its major use is fermentation. Water meanwhile, is essential and ubiquitous.

The key precursors for organophosphates involve the donated fluorine; no fluorination, no organophosphate weapons. As a bonus the fluorine compounds used are dangerous, and imported/exported in much smaller quantities than alcohol. Without bifluorides, you can still have industry, medicine, etc. Without isopropyl you can’t even have hand sanitizer.

Blackbagboys: Oh for sure, it’s hard to imagine why there would be high demand for the most common disinfectant in a war zone. That’s incredibly suspicious, and clearly points to the production of sarin. (/s)

Come on, this blog isn’t talking about anything reasonable, it’s calling rubbing alcohol a CW precursor.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#26

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

It’s very clear that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, and the evidence is overwhelming that the Syrian government was behind the vast majority of the attacks. I know of at least one tech company that compiles photos of the attacks, geo and time stamped, and the photos are beyond disturbing.

No, it's not "very clear" as the "intelligence" is 100% Twitter-based and zero actual autopsy has taken place, as no one actually died that day. Or so say the hospital staff.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very clear that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, and the evidence is overwhelming that the Syrian government was behind the vast majority of the attacks. I know of at least one tech company that compiles photos of the attacks, geo and time stamped, and the photos are beyond disturbing.

No, it's not "very clear" as the "intelligence" is 100% Twitter-based and zero actual autopsy has taken place, as no one actually died that day. Or so say the hospital staff.

Not sure which of the 70+ documented attacks you are referring to. And the White Helmets would disagree, and are less subject to Syrian governmental “persuasion” than doctors.

There is a reason Assad’s government blocked inspectors from examining the latest claimed attack.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#28

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

Also who needs a gazillion liters of isopropanol when a kilogram of sarin (which takes at most ~10L of isopropanol to make) is all you need to kill... well, everybody you would want to kill?

Isopropanol is hardly the limiting reagent in this route, nor is it hard to produce by myriad ways.

Hell, even thionyl chloride (still tons of legit uses) is more of a red flag than IPrOH.

Something is definitely a bit goofy about this blog. Not saying attacks didn't happen, it's just that, from a chemical production point of view, iPrOH is a really odd choice to look at.

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#29

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

It’s very clear that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, and the evidence is overwhelming that the Syrian government was behind the vast majority of the attacks. I know of at least one tech company that compiles photos of the attacks, geo and time stamped, and the photos are beyond disturbing.

> and the evidence is overwhelming that the Syrian government was behind the vast majority of the attacks.

What evidence might that be?

Re: Tracking the Illegal Shipment of Sarin Precursor from Belgium to Syria

#30

I want to be clear that I don’t know if chemical weapons are being used in Syria, although the evidence for the use of Chlorine in barrel bombs is strong. I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t seen good evidence of organophosphate poisonings, but I’m just some guy so who knows. What I do know for sure however, is that this blog is utter bunk. The Belgian customs found that without having requested the appropriate exp…

I agree with you in principle (that it's likely this is for use as rubbing alcohol, not as an industrial precursor), but in theory, there is still something going on here. Number one, they are able to track the volume and destinations of the trade. It would be weird to see a large fluctuation in exports-- why would Syrian consumers suddenly begin demanding or abandoning their use of rubbing alcohol? Demand is most li…

> why would Syrian consumers suddenly begin demanding or abandoning their use of rubbing alcohol?

I would imagine getting bombed would increase demand for basic first aid kit componenents.

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