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Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

businessinsider.com

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Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#101

Post by swebs »

magduf wrote: post #89
swebs wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds very similar to the FairTax bill that's been proposed since the 90's. Only with FairTax money comes from sales tax rather than income. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FairTax

"FairTax" doesn't work because sales tax is extremely regressive. Rich people don't spend nearly as much of their income as poor people, and they frequently don't even spend it inside the country. Sales tax just ends up hurting the working class the most.

Technically, it's a flat tax. You can argue that it's "effectively" regressive if you divide mean spending by income across the income distribution or something, but it doesn't really matter since as long as the prebate value is large enough, the poor still come out ahead.

Needless to say, I'm not claiming that FirTax would work. I'm just pointing out the similarities between it and UBI. If this experiment shows evidence that UBI doesn't work, then that gives me less confidence in FairTax as well.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#102

Post by matte_black »

icebraining wrote: post #76
matte_black wrote: post #61

Instead of giving out money, why not give out the basic necessities directly? A free home, free utilities, free food, a basic vehicle, free clothes, free healthcare? If you’re happy with these things you’re set, if you want more you work for it and acquire money. Seems like this would accomplish the same goals of UBI, but with less risks and impact on the economy, and at some point you can benefit from economies of s…

Where is that home? In the US, would it be in SF, CA or Alamo, GA? What kind of vehicle? I don't have a license, does that mean I only get a bicycle instead of a car? What about gas? What's "free utilities" - how much can I consume? Can I trade the clothes for something else if I don't need as many? If so, who decides for what and how much I can trade them for? I'm not an expert, but I think the results where this ha…

> Where is that home? In the US, would it be in SF, CA or Alamo, GA?

A dense, tall building in SF could hold homes for a lot of residents at once.

>I don't have a license, does that mean I only get a bicycle instead of a car?

It means you get a car when you learn to drive, or else just take a bus.

> What about gas?

Electric vehicle

> What's "free utilities" - how much can I consume?

A set amount per month based on reasonable usage estimates.

> Can I trade the clothes for something else if I don't need as many?

You can do whatever you want with your stuff.

> If so, who decides for what and how much I can trade them for?

Between you and the person you trade with.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#103

Post by matte_black »

yorwba wrote: post #94
matte_black wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do not need UBI for that, you just need a few more options or packages for people to choose from, which would be trivial to provide.

More like one package per person. Of course that's still trivial to provide, as you say. You just give everyone a fixed set of points they can allocate to the options available according to their needs. I propose to call those points "money".

Even if you want a point system it becomes a separated currency from actual money.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#104

Post by Klathmon »

nabc45 wrote: post #78
Klathmon wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have really only read comments on UBI so I might be extremely wrong, but I believe the idea is that as we move toward a more "automated" life, the "1%" can make enough to pay for the 99% to have UBI. And since everyone gets the same baseline, even monumentally high tax rates would be tolerable. This is basically a way of redistributing wealth with the added side benefit that you can quit your job without fear of lo…

>you can quit your job without fear of losing everything in your life That sounds like an American problem more than anything else

It's a problem everywhere, but many places have some kind of safety-net working to prevent it.

The idea of UBI (at least in theory) is to make that safety-net universal, remove the barriers to use it, lower the overhead cost of administering a system like it.

Remove the need for applications to benefit from it, remove the wasteful "taxing unemployment income" that happens currently (at least in the US), remove the stigma attached to having it.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#105

Post by yardie »

whb07 wrote: post #73
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

There are already large versions of UBI already in place, just by another name. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia and other rich gulf states, there’s essentially large cash transfers to citizenry for just being alive (and of course not revolting). It is of course telling that Saudi Arabia has no sort of industry and the little they produce via Aramco has large swaths of imported experts working for them. Same applie…

> In Florida, the Seminole tribes distribute thousands of dollars/month, to each of their members just for being alive. Many of them end up having chronic issues with drug and alcohol abuse.

Okay I was with you for a little bit but this part of your comment is completely off the mark. The casinos are built on tribal land. And in many cases owned by the tribe. For all intents and purposes the tribe is a corporation. Members get a monthly dividend based on their percentage of native american blood. It is not UBI and not a welfare. If you or I, assuming you aren't NA, move to tribal land we still wouldn't be entitled to that money, nor through marriage. We aren't a stakeholder.

I've been to Miccosoukee and Seminole country before and after the casinos. The additional income has made a lot of difference in improving their way of life. Hurricane hardened homes, fully funded schools, and reliable cars.

As for alcohol and drug abuse. That is an issue with tribes who don't receive any money at all. That is a separate issue related to education, job prospects, and, yes still, racism.

BTW, the Seminoles didn't just spend their dividend money on alcohol and opiates. They've been busy investing that money as well. They have bought the entire chain of Hard Rock restaurants and resorts.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#106

Post by notahacker »

hawkice wrote: post #46
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

If the criticisms of a policy is that subsidies for the voluntarily economically inactive can only be funded with massive tax increases and cuts in benefits for some of the poorest members of society, that the biggest chief beneficiaries will be house-rich early retirees and that it isn't economically sustainable, then a test which tops up a proportion of people's existing benefits out of general government funds for a short period and discovers they like free money isn't very informative.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#107

Post by pm90 »

whb07 wrote: post #73
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

There are already large versions of UBI already in place, just by another name. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia and other rich gulf states, there’s essentially large cash transfers to citizenry for just being alive (and of course not revolting). It is of course telling that Saudi Arabia has no sort of industry and the little they produce via Aramco has large swaths of imported experts working for them. Same applie…

I still don't think this addresses the parents comment about the UBI operating on a country-wide scale.

The Native American tribes, people in Alaska etc. are still a fraction of American society. Not to mention... there are other socio-economic factors that prevent the American tribes from being successful (e.g. perhaps a genetic pre-disposition to alcoholism as well).

I would like to see what happens when a major population center, either a US state or a populous city, implements a form of UBI. That is when the true economic impact may be evident.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#108

Post by slx26 »

praha14 wrote: post #4

I understand the argument that, once free from work, a number of people will voluntarily choose to work as physicists or playwrights or mathematicians. What I haven’t understood, though, is why someone would choose to work as a bricklayer or spend their 20s sitting in a fluorescent office designing an industrial process to make ball-bearing lubricant 0.4% more efficient. It’s that sort of menial, unglamorous labor th…

Most people is not extremely bright. It can be very frustrating to attempt complicated things and not succeed. Even most bright people would rather do something boring from time to time. Maybe many "boring" jobs would get better social recognition, and would be seen as a contribution. Maybe we would develop a sense of duty towards that. Maybe many people would even do some of those jobs for free. Maybe people will start trying out many different jobs, changing between them a lot. Maybe jobs would change and become way more diverse: fun things on mondays and tuesdays; wednesdays reserved for the most boring tasks. We will never know without trying. There are many objective issues with UBI, but many of the problems we imagine are just due to our lack of imagination to see the ways in which society might evolve around them.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#109

Post by howard941 »

simonsarris wrote: post #79

Studying a UBI pilot with an end date is not studying UBI at all: It is instead studying a misnamed temporary cash payment. By the nature of pilots, the cohort’s behavior cannot reliably change to depend on UBI’s long term existence. No study yet has guaranteed a cohort money forever, and even if it did it would be difficult for a pilot to study the long term effects, some of which may be generations out. What pilot…

Your footnoted link was good reading. Disturbing but good. Thanks for posting it.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#110

Post by pm90 »

hawkice wrote: post #46
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

There are such things as network effects and thresholds for complex systems. So outcomes can and will be discontinuous in policy space. Perhaps for the simple reason that human society is pretty complex and certain things about it are still not very well understood.
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