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Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

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Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#71

Post by brianwawok »

hawkice wrote: post #46
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

> Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction

So eating healthy for 1 day/week will change your blood results and tell you that a year of it will make you lose 50 pounds?

So going to 1 day of college will make you measure differently on a test that checks critical thinking?

Different things take different amount of time to see results. I could see behaving very differently between

* This is a very temporary 1 year test of UBI *

vs

* You have a social safety net of UBI for your entire life, and can count on the income no matter what happens

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#72

Post by loceng »

alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

Also, we can predict a lot of the major impacts something like UBI will have, however part of the plan must be to implement plans and strategy to manage for these - in particular, whenever new money is introduced into a system, many for-profit systems will increase their pricing, which then trickles down into every other system requiring to increase their pricing. There has to be a floor created, and there needs to be management of otherwise unmanaged wild west economics.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#73

Post by whb07 »

alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

There are already large versions of UBI already in place, just by another name. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia and other rich gulf states, there’s essentially large cash transfers to citizenry for just being alive (and of course not revolting).

It is of course telling that Saudi Arabia has no sort of industry and the little they produce via Aramco has large swaths of imported experts working for them. Same applies to the other gulf states, importing everything from house cleaning to engineering labor.

As to an American UBI scheme, one can look at the handful of rich pockets of Native American tribes who run successful casino operations. In Florida, the Seminole tribes distribute thousands of dollars/month, to each of their members just for being alive. Many of them end up having chronic issues with drug and alcohol abuse.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#74

Post by opportune »

hawkice wrote: post #46
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

First, nobody is saying they're discontinuous. But there are plenty of continuous results we can see that are concave up, i.e. they require commitment beyond a certain point to be more effective than not implanting them at all.

For example, let's say initially we build a single road from coast to coast in the US, starting with no roads. There wouldn't be many places to drive to, there would be a small market for cars, and as a result of lacking economies of scale, cars would be expensive. There wouldn't be much infrastructure for purchasing or maybe even extracting gas, so that would be more expensive too. The road probably wouldn't get used much, and wouldn't be worth it.

But if you build a bunch of roads all over the country between where people want to go, eventually they'll become worth it.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#75

Post by alkonaut »

VMG wrote: post #70
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

Sounds reminiscent of "Socialism doesn't work if not applied globally".

I wouldn't go that far, but I'll go as far as saying that socialism near useless for a single person, and only shows any promise whatsoever for two or more people...

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#76

Post by icebraining »

matte_black wrote: post #61

Instead of giving out money, why not give out the basic necessities directly? A free home, free utilities, free food, a basic vehicle, free clothes, free healthcare? If you’re happy with these things you’re set, if you want more you work for it and acquire money. Seems like this would accomplish the same goals of UBI, but with less risks and impact on the economy, and at some point you can benefit from economies of s…

Where is that home? In the US, would it be in SF, CA or Alamo, GA? What kind of vehicle? I don't have a license, does that mean I only get a bicycle instead of a car? What about gas? What's "free utilities" - how much can I consume? Can I trade the clothes for something else if I don't need as many? If so, who decides for what and how much I can trade them for?

I'm not an expert, but I think the results where this has been tried were bureaucracy, waste and black markets.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#77

Post by opportune »

prostoalex wrote: post #18
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #12

These experiments confuse me. Haven't we already seen the result of UBI? Pensions, states that issue money (from state oil income etc), allowances, annuities? The world doesn't come to an end; the people don't all become listless and stop contributing. The currency doesn't inflate uncontrollably; prices don't change at all. The cost of living is unchanged (because economics doesn't work that way). All the FUD produce…

> the people don't all become listless and stop contributing Well, in the US two groups that do get state distributions - residents of Alaska and those on Native American reservations - do have disproportionate rates of substance abuse (mainly alcohol). As far as seniors who get pensions, what is your definition of "contributing"? In many cases they are eligible for those pensions only once they declare themselves re…

There are also plenty of retirees and rich people that get money for not working.

I think a good cohort to look at would be trust fund recipients, specifically those who receive between $10-50k/year from their trust. Oftentimes these trusts are first available in young adulthood, so they are a good proxy for UBI. Of course the major confounding variable would be that these recipients are likely to be wealthier, and thus more educated, than the general population

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#78

Post by nabc45 »

Klathmon wrote: post #65
Siecje wrote: post #57

With UBI people say you are not discouraged from working because everyone gets the money no matter how much money they make. But where does that money come from? Once you earn enough surely they will be taxing you more than you receive per month, otherwise the system would not work.

I have really only read comments on UBI so I might be extremely wrong, but I believe the idea is that as we move toward a more "automated" life, the "1%" can make enough to pay for the 99% to have UBI. And since everyone gets the same baseline, even monumentally high tax rates would be tolerable. This is basically a way of redistributing wealth with the added side benefit that you can quit your job without fear of lo…

>you can quit your job without fear of losing everything in your life

That sounds like an American problem more than anything else

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#79

Post by simonsarris »

Studying a UBI pilot with an end date is not studying UBI at all: It is instead studying a misnamed temporary cash payment. By the nature of pilots, the cohort’s behavior cannot reliably change to depend on UBI’s long term existence. No study yet has guaranteed a cohort money forever, and even if it did it would be difficult for a pilot to study the long term effects, some of which may be generations out. What pilot can tell us answers to questions like: "What is it like for kids to grow up with parents who have never worked?"[1]

Universal Basic Income projects also tend to fail hard at the Universal part. It’s hard to study how society would change if you are not piloting something that is intended to affect all of society.

For the Finland study, the cohort doesn’t even scratch the "U", and somewhat contradicts itself:

> During the experiment, a total of 2,000 unemployed persons between 25 and 58 years of age will receive a monthly payment of €560, unconditionally and without means testing. The experiment will run for two years.

(quoting from: http://www.kela.fi/web/en/experimental-study-on-a-universal-...)

I've written my own long list of objections to UBI, here: https://medium.com/@simon.sarris/after-universal-basic-incom...

I think it's an important problem, but I'm totally flabbergasted at how much simplistic thinking the proponents are willing to gloss over.

~~~

[1] There answer is SSDI but don't look at it if you want to sleep at night. https://web.archive.org/web/20130420171159/http://thelastpsy...

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#80

Post by telchar »

whb07 wrote: post #73
alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

There are already large versions of UBI already in place, just by another name. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia and other rich gulf states, there’s essentially large cash transfers to citizenry for just being alive (and of course not revolting). It is of course telling that Saudi Arabia has no sort of industry and the little they produce via Aramco has large swaths of imported experts working for them. Same applie…

Of course that's not just a basic income, that's a full cushy income. A better example with be Alaska which uses ok revenues to give a subsidy to residents of the state.
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