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Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

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Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#91
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're describing a long term view (singularity?) rather than the up-and-coming technology in the question. Claiming to be 100% right and calling people with different opinion idiots might have added a downvote or two (Personally I upvoted).

I don't think it's a long-term view due to the numbers involved. For example, everyday developers might have access to 64-bit laptop computer with 4 cores @ 4 ghz and 16 GB of RAM (literally millions of people use such a machine, zero exaggeration). When working on their own desktops, AI researches might use an 6-core or 8-core desktop with 64 GB of RAM or, rarely, 128 GB of RAM. Access to 2-32 terabytes of RAM are n…

I'm very sceptical about it.

First of all, the current state of AI and machine learning seems to be abysmal. The major breakthroughs (such as backpropagation) were made decades ago. The only reason that AI seems to be improving, is that a couple of companies are throwing an immense amount of money, data, and computing power into it. Even then, the results are relatively poor at best: systems like Google Now and Siri can only respond to a limited set of hardcoded queries and every kind of "suggestion" system seems to be actually getting worse in the last few years.

Secondly, Moore's law is as good as dead. If an algorithm requires a terabyte of ram, it is all but useless for most practical purposes. I'm currently looking for a replacement of a 5-year old laptop and the newest model is at most 20% faster, with the same amount of memory! Heck, last time I got a desktop it had an AMD Phenom II X6 1055T: for the same amount of money, you'd now get an i5 8500 or a Ryzen 5 1600x. The performance gain? Well judging by the Passmark scores, it would be a jump from ~5000 to ~13000. So that's roughly 2.5 times as fast in eight years, with a jump from 45nm to 14nm. Memory progression is about the same. Considering that the progression is slowing down, it'll take quite a few decades before the performance required for current AI is generally available.

Thirdly, the stuff which is impersonating AI isn't actually intelligent. Every current solution focuses on what basically boils down to a very complex set of linear regressions and similar methods. There is no adaptability, no sense of context, not even the slightest form of creativity. Everything which we consider to be intelligence is lacking. This isn't really a big surprise, because we simply don't know how it works in living creatures. Sure, we know how the neurons work, but the high-level understanding is lacking, so how could we even begin to imitate it or even improve on it? Sure, we could try simulating an actual brain, but a Blue Gene/L can only simulate half of a mouse's brain at one-tenth of the speed - and that's assuming the simulation is actually correctly modelling the biology.

So no, I don't think we're on the brink of an AI revolution. We might have something with the intelligence of a service dog in a decade or three, but even that would probably be a stretch. Unless a few very major breakthroughs occur, AI is going to be a bit of a disappointment.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any task of human cognition that the sack of meat in a skull can do, a digital algorithm will be able to do, because the former is just slow, slow analog meat. It's not slow at all. And you are obsessed with meat.

All this talk of meat is making me hungry...stupid auto correct.... :<

Ah.. brings me to another invention: artificial meat, but as tasty and indiscernable as the real thing, without all the food waste required to raise cattle.

Currently still in the lab phase, I think.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#93
post #86
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that work in practice? Of course, you could eliminate all hereditary diseases, make people smarter, remove certain genetic predispositions; but I'm not convinced that the "perfection" thing is possible. The most obvious being, what exactly is perfection? If you ask 100 people to describe their perfect partner, you'd get 100 completely different answers. If our species would converge to any one of those desc…

It's actually easy. For each allele, you simply take the majority allele. Yes, this will lose some new beneficial mutations, but since most mutations are deleterious, taking majority allele is guaranteed to be an improvement in whole. Huge improvement.

I don't follow your reasoning. It might work for some genes, but a very large part has no meaningful significance at all. If we were to simply take the majority allele, that would eliminate all blonde people, all redheads, everyone who has any form of biological talent for anything whatsoever; you'd even get rid of white people altogether: after all, they are the minority. Taking the majority would mean getting rid of all variation. To me, that is not at all what I would call a huge improvement.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#94
Next-Generation variable-buoyancy airships, without a doubt. Primarily because of the ways it will impact construction. Once we 'build the machine that builds the buildings' we can then simply lift them into place. Cities could become vastly more flexible (modular) and livable as a result. But even agriculture and logging could become vastly less environmentally destructive.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#95

Self driving cars. The amount of time saved for humanity will be absolutely staggering and free up people to spend more time accomplishing more things.

The real revolution for self driving cars will be what it does to deaths in the 18-35 demographic. A quick Google search turns up this (https://www.verywell.com/top-causes-of-death-for-ages-15-24-...) article that confirms that for the 15-24 demographic automobile accidents are the leading cause of death. Think of how many productive person-years we'll gain if self driving cars are even just 10% safer than driving yourself (and by all measures I've seen, they're way safer than that)!

Edit: To understand the real impact, I've always enjoyed this hypothetical future conversation...

Future Kid: You mean to say that people used to operate machinery weighing several tons? Traveling at high speeds? With a minimum of training?

Future Adult: Yup.

Future Kid: And nobody died?

Future Adult: Oh no! People died all the time!

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#96
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely curious... how can Bitcoin help address global wealth inequality?

Initially I think due to disruption to banking and government monopolies. Outrageous fees, pitiful interest rates, and financial services only accessible Monday through Friday 9-5 and sometimes on Saturday seem pretty archaic today. People who never had access to a bank can send money to anyone peer-to-peer like cash. Millenials largely prefer to invest their money into cryptocurrencies over traditional assets, which…

Outrageous fees: are you sure we're talking about BitCoin, here?

Financial services M-F 9-5: while you generally need to go into a bank to set up an account, that's not always the case. Afterwards, most banking can be via direct deposit, mobile cameras for check deposits, ATMs, and web services.

People who don't have access to banks -- Kenya appears to have solved this without blockchains.

"Millenials largely prefer to invest their money into cryptocurrencies over traditional assets" -- do you have statistics on this?

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#97
post #93
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's actually easy. For each allele, you simply take the majority allele. Yes, this will lose some new beneficial mutations, but since most mutations are deleterious, taking majority allele is guaranteed to be an improvement in whole. Huge improvement.

I don't follow your reasoning. It might work for some genes, but a very large part has no meaningful significance at all. If we were to simply take the majority allele, that would eliminate all blonde people, all redheads, everyone who has any form of biological talent for anything whatsoever; you'd even get rid of white people altogether: after all, they are the minority. Taking the majority would mean getting rid o…

Plus there's going to be interaction between the genes. After all, that's exactly what evolution is trying to evaluate. If it was possible to simply know the answer, don't you think it would have found that in 3 billion years runtime ?

Duplicate some hollywood star's genes ? Maybe even a scientist's ? Some combination ? Perhaps (have fun being the first one to try it though). "Perfect" genes/humans ? No way. It'll take decades before we can create smarter humans. "Duplicate" your beloved pet ? Sure (domesticated animals are pretty close to clones already, but whatever).

However, it'd be much easier to create the perfect dishwasher/street wiper/soldier. Obedient, maybe even dependent on a drug and unable to reproduce by themselves (ala Monsanto plants). And the question isn't whether we can stop the US military from doing that. The question is whether we can stop China.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#98
post #69
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt this. People don't even bother asking sophisticated query to search engines.

Only because no search engines understand them. I would love to ask specific questions instead of translating everything into multiple queries of "search engine speak". Every time we find an edge case (or a noob question) that lands us on stack exchange, we could just ask an AI directly to look up the relevant documentation or scour through thousands of bug reports and workarounds. Stage two describing the solution y…

I think wolframalpha is already pretty close to that. And, I must say, a lot more trustworthy than even stackexchange. I mean, if it gives an answer, you can generally trust it to simply be true.

And it never shows ads.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#99
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because no search engines understand them. I would love to ask specific questions instead of translating everything into multiple queries of "search engine speak". Every time we find an edge case (or a noob question) that lands us on stack exchange, we could just ask an AI directly to look up the relevant documentation or scour through thousands of bug reports and workarounds. Stage two describing the solution y…

I think wolframalpha is already pretty close to that. And, I must say, a lot more trustworthy than even stackexchange. I mean, if it gives an answer, you can generally trust it to simply be true. And it never shows ads.

wolframalpha is really great for a good set of questions, but it's not the AI being envisioned.

Re: Ask HN: What up and coming technology has you most excited?

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any task of human cognition that the sack of meat in a skull can do, a digital algorithm will be able to do, because the former is just slow, slow analog meat. It's not slow at all. And you are obsessed with meat.

It's exceedingly slow. Neurons fire at not 4 gigahertz, 400 megahertz, 40 megahertz, 4 megahertz, 400 kilohertz, 40 kilohertz, 4 kilohertz, or 0.4 kilohertz (400 hertz.) They fire at That is literally 8 orders of magnitude slower than processers. 8 orders of magnitude is the size of difference between a grain of sand and 1.2 short tons. In the time that your neuron moves 1 grain of sand, a computer can move 1.2 short…

Are brains working on the bit level?

All that aside, how does general cognition emerge from speed? Why hasn't anyone made a "slow" version yet?

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