Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose • Hacker News Board

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#201

Post by Bartweiss » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:44 PM UTC

jrs95 wrote: post #69

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Maybe Colorado should implement some of what Hunter S. Thompson had in his platform for Sheriff of Aspen: 1. Rip up all city streets with jackhammers and sod the streets at once.... All public movement would be by foot and a fleet of bicycles, maintained by the city police force. 2. Change the name 'Aspen', by public referendum, to 'Fat City'. This would prevent greedheads, land-rapers and other human jackals from ca…

I don't think Thompson and Ed Abbey ever met, but they'd have hit it off quite well. (Or killed each other, I suppose.)

Points 1, 2, and 4 remind me of nothing so much as Abbey's stance on protecting the national parks: avoiding regulation via personal responsibility and barriers on idle, disinteresting consumption.

As I remember, his plan for the Grand Canyon was to put the last parking lot 5+ miles from the Canyon, with a bus line and a fleet of bicycles. You bike in (or take the bus, iff you've got a health reason not to bike), see the Canyon, then take a bus back out. No Canyon-side parking, less litter, no tourists seeking 5 minutes of photos, and no hucksters selling tickets for glass bridges or anything else. And yes, I seem to remember he wanted to keep names like "Hell's Half Mile" on everything possible, the better to limit demand.

A bit exclusionary, maybe, but sort of a nice vision given what we've got instead. (As far as I know, the park that came closest is Zion, and it's definitely better for having done so.)

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#202

Post by talmand » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:45 PM UTC

counterpoint1 wrote: post #188

Reedx wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. VC -> Startup -> Employee -> Landlord. Everyone blames tech workers, but they're not the ones raising the prices. Most of their money disappears into rent.

Landlord -> Property taxes -> Government benefits receivers, service providers and employees The real beneficiaries are the people who gain from the increased tax revenue.

What happens when the source of the tax revenue decides they had enough and leave?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#203

Post by jandrese » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:47 PM UTC

tehlike wrote: post #130

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People absolutely saw it coming. I remember Geithner making comments to the effect of "we aren't ready yet!" when the bubble finally broke. The Fed was already making plans to shore up the affected banks, but hadn't yet built up the funds to do so effectively. But then it depends on which timescale we're talking about.

When did they notice, and why did the housing prices go up and away years leading to 2008?

Basically, everybody wanted to ride the gravy train and nobody wanted to be the killjoy that pulled the brakes before it flew off of the cliff. There was a lot of money to be made and nobody thought they would be the ones left holding the bag.

The movie The Big Short explained this pretty well.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#204

Post by Bartweiss » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:52 PM UTC

jngreenlee wrote: post #185

taurath wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly think that a more modern version of "intentional communities" would really appeal to a lot of people. Cheap housing, walk able everything including grocery stores, a couple locally owned industries or two, and the support people to support them - it literally sounds like the dream to me. Suburbs are exclusion zones, and cities are so incredibly expensive and chaotic. I'm sure there's 1000 economic and soci…

You actually just described the modern approach to suburbs! Stapleton in Denver, Mueller in Austin are some examples. These basically become high priced, close in, suburbs.

Interestingly, this sort of planned suburb seems to end up a lot like what we used to get organically.

Boston's inner suburbs are full of this sort of stuff - walkable stores, small business and light industry, 2-5 story buildings for housing. And it all feels a lot like the old quarters of many European cities.

Part of the change is building materials and cars, I suppose - what was obvious in 1850 now has to be planned to outcompete highrises and cars-first layouts. But an awful lot of it is just not outlawing what people already do if you let them; Boston's livable old suburbs are basically all illegal today.

http://cityobservatory.org/the-illegal-city-of-somerville/

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#205

Post by oxymoran » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:53 PM UTC

rubicon33 wrote: post #30

pcwalton wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just bought a condo in SF myself. It was an agonizingly difficult decision that I had been contemplating for years and years before finally taking the plunge. Some of what drove my decision was that most experts don't believe that the Bay Area real estate market is a bubble [1] [2]. (I wouldn't wish the anxiety around this decision on anyone, least of all future generations, which is why I've resolved to buck the t…

If you're in it for the long haul, then it was a very wise decision. The bay area, specifically San Francisco, is one of the best real estate purchases anyone can make. It's geographically constrained and has historically shown to gain value over the past 100 years CONSISTENTLY. There will be some small bumps in the road here or there, but when you look back in 20, or 30 years, I can almost guarantee you're going to…

I do not agree. You assume that things don’t change. The past 100 years doesn’t matter at all because the past 80 years are starkly different than the last 20 years. It’s not only the local housing bubble that one needs to be concerned about, it’s the stock market, specifically tech, bubble in general that should give rise to concern. While your city is culturally diverse, it is economically homogeneous. Sure, a stock market correction or downturn hurts the whole country, it specifically impacts those who overpaid for assets. If you can’t pay the mortgage for the next couple years, does it really matter that it will undoubtedly bounce back in 5-10 years? Never buy an assessment that is overpriced. Housing in the Bay Area is obviously and unarguably overpriced because supply is artificially suppressed.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#206

Post by sysalphUS » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:53 PM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #136

kenning wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never even been to seattle but i can at least tell you that grunge started there. Can you imagine a new genre of music starting in seattle now? Also, > There's an art gallery across the street from me. Many coffee shops and restaurants have locally created art for sale. There's a ton of those in SF, too. Gentrifiers enjoy the old culture and all its signifiers; that's why they moved there in the first place. (ID…

There’s a dude who dances on the corner by my bus stop because he likes it. No shortage of buskers either. The bar up the street does rope dancing on I think Tuesday night. I’m not sure how to reconcile “all the artists are leaving” with “gentrifiers like art” and the presence of many forms of art all over the place. Which is it? Are artists not supposed to sell art? I really don’t get it. Grunge didn’t really start…

Funny seeing our neighborhood dancing dude mentioned on HN (assuming you’re talking about the guy that posts up across from Easy Street)! When he started showing up I was really happy to see just a little bit of life and eccentric expression being brought back out on the street. Seattle was my hometown and still is my home. I’m probably one of the complainers many people are complaining about on this forum. That said, I have made friends with a bunch of new folks who moved from Cali within the last several years. Really great, wonderful people and I have nothing against them. Nevertheless, at this point it’s far from the city I grew up in, fell in love with, and now miss (even though I still live here) As the cost of living rises, the culture changes.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#207

Post by talmand » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:54 PM UTC

tehlike wrote: post #91

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

The thing with subprime mortgages is, noone saw it coming. How do you know some other forces are at play in todays market? Forces that may not be true in the blink of an eye? Not saying it is gonna burst, and i see the factors, but theyw ere there in 2008 too.

I lived in Vegas at the time. I saw it for the obvious problem that it was. I told everyone in the area that the bust was going to happen, but everyone was blinded by the money they were making. The shock people had was both amusing and disturbing at the same time.

Funny somewhat related story; just as the downslide started in that market we made an offer on a house 50k below asking. The owner, an investor, laughed at us. After the bust, we had already moved away at that point, we saw the house finally sold for something like 100k to 150k less than our low-ball offer.

Another somewhat related funny story; went to an open house and told the realtor I was worried over falling house values before deciding to buy. We were told house values don't fall. Didn't bother to point out to her that the for sale sign out front had a "reduced" sticker on it.

I have more, but I don't won't to be a bore.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#208

Post by talmand » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:55 PM UTC

jandrese wrote: post #203

tehlike wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did they notice, and why did the housing prices go up and away years leading to 2008?

Basically, everybody wanted to ride the gravy train and nobody wanted to be the killjoy that pulled the brakes before it flew off of the cliff. There was a lot of money to be made and nobody thought they would be the ones left holding the bag. The movie The Big Short explained this pretty well.

I suggest reading the book as well.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#209

Post by sysalphUS » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:58 PM UTC

kenning wrote: post #198

mulmen wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a dude who dances on the corner by my bus stop because he likes it. No shortage of buskers either. The bar up the street does rope dancing on I think Tuesday night. I’m not sure how to reconcile “all the artists are leaving” with “gentrifiers like art” and the presence of many forms of art all over the place. Which is it? Are artists not supposed to sell art? I really don’t get it. Grunge didn’t really start…

Really just warning you, it sounds possible that it's where SF was 10-15 years ago. I personally knew multiple artists who lived in SF, tried to sell their art to techies, slowly noticed that all their friends were becoming techies (and all their artist friends were leaving), their rent continually rose, and had to move out. These places are friendly to artists right up until they aren't.

This exact scenario happened to me in Seattle. But I took a corporate job instead of move.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#210

Post by dsfyu404ed » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 4:06 PM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #71

fred_is_fred wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have no avocados here. This isn't the state you are looking for. Move along. Move along.

I'm from a small town in Idaho. I recently went back to visit family. Everyone was eager to tell me that the direct flight from Seattle would be cancelled in favor of a town 45 minutes away. The local airport which used to serve the region is losing commercial service to the largest metro area in the region. Getting out of town will take an extra transfer and a 45minute to two hour drive. That town has stagnated and…

If I wasn't in tech I'd prefer to tough it out in some small town in some "backwards" state.

Better to be marginally less wealthy and free to live how I want than run the race by the rules of some coastal city for little benefit.