Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose • Hacker News Board

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#121

Post by jjeaff » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:13 AM UTC

seanp2k2 wrote: post #93

rubicon33 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're in it for the long haul, then it was a very wise decision. The bay area, specifically San Francisco, is one of the best real estate purchases anyone can make. It's geographically constrained and has historically shown to gain value over the past 100 years CONSISTENTLY. There will be some small bumps in the road here or there, but when you look back in 20, or 30 years, I can almost guarantee you're going to…

The thing holding me back is that I don't think it's sustainable to have small single-family homes going for >$1m in tear-down condition. It might not get hit with a huge correction, but I can't see these properties being worth $5m in 2028. No one can predict the future, but I don't see how it can keep going at anywhere near the pace it's currently going.

That $1m is for the land. The tear down condition home can be upgraded ad-infintum. Look at the tiny London flats right now where they are building multiple stories down into the ground.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#122

Post by lukeschlather » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:17 AM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #75

jorblumesea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

I understand that Seattle is still allowing housing construction though?

More than SF, but not necessarily a lot. I've been looking at the assessor data to evaluate how much development is going on, and it's interesting how the past 5 years have seen a lot of new units going online but they are very small so not a huge amount of new square footage, especially relative to 2003-2008 when a lot of large single-family homes were being built.

https://github.com/lukeschlather/load-king-county-assessor-d...

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#123

Post by beckler » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:18 AM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #73

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

> Colorado is now seen as the last "cool" place thats "affordable" and liberal (sorry screaming Coloradan's, you're next). Asheville, NC is coming up after Colorado - I've got one friends-couple that's actively moving there this summer, and a couple others that are thinking seriously about it. > I wonder what this all will look like when we look back 20 years hence There was an interesting throwaway comment in Carlot…

Unless you're fully remote, Asheville is a tough scene to break into if you're in the tech field.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#124

Post by taurath » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:28 AM UTC

reilly3000 wrote: post #100

taurath wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 doesn't exist in Seattle, yet prices are rising as fast or faster than the bay (on a percentage basis). There the lesson is supply/demand - there is only 1 month or less of housing stock available, when 6 would be a historically median market. Everyone is going crazy to buy something as fast as possible before they get left behind. Absolutely though Prop 13 hurts liquidity in California though. There's a lot…

The growth management act seems to engender a similar effect. It primarily limits new construction. I think Seattle’s charms also make it sticky for its permanent residents.

The housing stock here is too low to not just hold on. There’s no guarantee you’ll get another desirable place if you sell, unless it’s for an upzone in which case you can move up from developer money.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#125

Post by Reedx » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:38 AM UTC

lbotos wrote: post #118

nradov wrote: post #44

Peter Thiel claims that the majority of capital poured into Silicon Valley startups ends up flowing to landlords. https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/peter...

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I wonder what the venn diagram of VCs and Landlords look like. If I was a VC, you better believe I'd have some money in real estate too.

That'd be really interesting. I'd also like to see how many VCs pivoted to real estate, heh.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#126

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

taurath wrote: post #124

reilly3000 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The growth management act seems to engender a similar effect. It primarily limits new construction. I think Seattle’s charms also make it sticky for its permanent residents.

The housing stock here is too low to not just hold on. There’s no guarantee you’ll get another desirable place if you sell, unless it’s for an upzone in which case you can move up from developer money.

[deleted]

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#127

Post by nxmehta » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:55 AM UTC

poof131 wrote: post #95

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

It’s both. There clearly is a bubble. The Fed has essentially dumped easy money into the economy since the dotcom bust. 2008 saw another crash and again the spigots were opened. It only seemed to flow to certain areas though as top down economic policy tends to do. Now as the Fed raises rates, people can borrow less and thereby afford less. We may see zero percent interest rates forever and the government stepping in…

Prop 13 is perhaps the biggest reason for the lack of supply. The other reasons you mention (zoning, NIMBYism, etc.) are also big contributors.

But tech is where the demand comes from. The median home price in Santa Clara county is almost $1.3M, and ~20% of residents can afford that price. Those are tech workers.

Supply has been steadily decreasing for years and years, so I don't see that problem getting solved. Therefore I think we'd need to see a significant drop in the tech industry for prices to slow down.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#128

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 6:01 AM UTC

pascalxus wrote: post #27

d--b wrote: post #18

There is a double bubble there: 1. low interest rates have been pushing people to buy houses for a decade. 2. and cheap borrowing costs pushed investors into riskier businesses like startups increasing the flow of capital in that region. Add the NIMBY mentality, and you get skyrocketing prices. My guess is that raising interest rates are going to change all this drastically before year end.

I think it's because Google just set up shop in San Jose and started hiring like crazy. I wonder, in san jose, How long will it take until families start living in garages like in Palo alto?

[deleted]

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#129

Post by kenning » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 6:09 AM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #120

jorblumesea wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2004, while I agree it's "not completed ruined", it feels like we're slowly pushing out much of the middle class, and with it, artists and other culturally important folk. Give it 10 years and the only people that will be able to afford the city is one specific income bracket. I think if you moved to the city post 2010, you probably don't realize what "old Seattle" was like.

There's an art gallery across the street from me. Many coffee shops and restaurants have locally created art for sale. There are all kinds of quirky performances on the street and in local businesses. I can't even begin to find time to attend all the live music shows I would like. Who are these other "culturally important folk" and why are they so important? Not denying they exist, I just don't know who you are talki…

I've never even been to seattle but i can at least tell you that grunge started there. Can you imagine a new genre of music starting in seattle now?

Also,

> There's an art gallery across the street from me. Many coffee shops and restaurants have locally created art for sale.

There's a ton of those in SF, too. Gentrifiers enjoy the old culture and all its signifiers; that's why they moved there in the first place. (IDK what you mean by street performers but there sure aren't those in SF.)

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#130

Post by tehlike » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 6:13 AM UTC

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #117

tehlike wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing with subprime mortgages is, noone saw it coming. How do you know some other forces are at play in todays market? Forces that may not be true in the blink of an eye? Not saying it is gonna burst, and i see the factors, but theyw ere there in 2008 too.

People absolutely saw it coming. I remember Geithner making comments to the effect of "we aren't ready yet!" when the bubble finally broke. The Fed was already making plans to shore up the affected banks, but hadn't yet built up the funds to do so effectively. But then it depends on which timescale we're talking about.

When did they notice, and why did the housing prices go up and away years leading to 2008?