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Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

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Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. There are only three extant architectural license holders (Intel, AMD and VIA) and they're basically in a circular firing squad of patents. To make their own chips, they'd need to either license from an existing holder (which wouldn't let them tinker unless it was a partnership or they acquired the license) or they'd need to make something so incredibly great the other three would trip over themselves to use it…

If they wanted to go x86 they would just buy VIA? I think it will be aarch64

> If they wanted to go x86 they would just buy VIA?

In theory, but then VIA is a subsidiary of Formosa Plastics Group, so they'd need to either negotiate the sale with an entity with which they've locked horns in the past or buy an entire petrochemical group???

They'd probably have an easier time buying AMD.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#162
Maybe a bit tangential, but from an economic it's interesting to see Intel's market cap vs TSMC, given that TSMC is purely a foundry. Nowadays what 10nm or 14nm actually means is a lot fuzzier than previous nodes, but the general consensus seems to be Intel's fab tech lead is either pretty precarious or already gone, so I'm just gonna assume even (which is admittedly a poor, oversimplified assumption).

Then TSMC and Intel are pretty even, which is slightly interesting to extrapolate all manner of conclusions.

Intel has slowly opened it's fabs to outsiders, however the first one was Altera, who Intel now owns, so... Main point is in 20, 30 years, is Intel's main business going to be fabbing their own chips, or someone else's? I dunno, I just enjoy following the industry.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#163
post #6

My questions: ARM? Walled garden of an app ecosystem? Command line? There has been convergence between iOS and MacOS for a while now.

I see the question marks but I'm not entirely sure what your questions actually are

It was just a stream of consciousness and I was planning on editing it but got distracted. It also wasn't formatted very well. My mistake.

I'm sure this has been going on for a long time behind the scenes. That is what happened when the PPC -> x86 transition became public. Since Apple has it's own ARM chips/fab, I wonder if ARM is where they are going? It would make sense from a couple different points of view: Lower power use and security. Can there be equivalence between the two architectures, meaning would similar CPUs net you a similar workload?

There is much to like about the iOS app store, but there also is much to dislike. Apple is the gatekeeper here, and if they don't like your app, you are out of luck. That's not the case with MacOS, at least not yet. You can still write what ever kind of app you desire for what ever your client base may pay for and Apple can't really do much to stop you. Merging iOS and MacOS would need to address this.

Finally I use the command line a lot. I don't have access to that on my tablet or phone unless I jailbreak it which has it's own risks with doing so. If Apple decides this is no longer acceptable, that will certainly change my choices for getting work done.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#164

> "A decision to go with ARM technology in computers might lend it credibility where it has failed to gain a foothold so far." > "Apple is working on a new software platform, internally dubbed Marzipan, for release as early as this year that would allow users to run iPhone and iPad apps on Macs" Two things here: 1) I'm OK with breaking the Intel near-monopoly on x86. I'm not OK with moving to a walled garden where Ap…

If I read that correctly, I don't know where you're extrapolating that Apple is making this move to replace macOS with iOS / a walled-garden where nobody can create apps for Mac except by selling them through the App Store. If Apple wanted to do that, they would just sell iPads and stop selling MacBooks.

As for 2), I think that's a nice convenience - if you're a developer you wouldn't have to to worry about emulation.

> does anybody have faith that Apple is going to be able to navigate a rewrite of macOS on this scale

Is it really that crazy they would rewrite parts of their OS to target a new architecture? A large undertaking sure, but not that ridiculous... This is Apple, not some random startup lol.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#165
post #141
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And before that they successfully managed the transition from m68k to PPC. The processor doesn't matter.

It does matter that the new processor is a lot more powerful and faster than the old processor. This wouldn't be the case this time.

But what -- and work with me here -- if the processor is slimmer. With rounded corners.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#166

Based on this article, it doesn't sound like Bloomberg has enough information to distinguish between Apple being committed to a transition, or Apple developing chips to improve their negotiating position with Intel. It's also very unlikely to happen on such a fast timetable; given the IP situation, it's unlikely Apple could make an x86_64 chip, and any move away from x86_64 is going to require significant work by thi…

The article doesn't say that Intel will be gone in 2020, just that Apple will be shipping macs with their own chips starting in 2020. It will likely start with one or two models available for devs, then a launch that covers more of the platform.

Doesn't all have to happen at once, and Apple has been though this before in the PPC-Intel switch, which went rather well.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#167
post #20
post #7

I think this was inevitable given the insane YoY performance increase we've seen from A-series chips. Anyone want to chime in on why Intel can't get more than 5% YoY while Apple has been getting 30-40%?

Because Apple started from a much lower base. I will probably surpass Pizza Hut's growth in making pizzas this year. Last year I made just a few, and only this month already two or three!

That's a good joke and I laughed, but this seriously understates the power of Apple's ARM chips. They are pretty impressive. To put this on the pizza scale, Apple is a lot further along than any individual pizza maker. They're a strong regional pizza chain, at the very least.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#168
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And before that they successfully managed the transition from m68k to PPC. The processor doesn't matter.

The processor doesn't matter to Apple because they don't mind fucking over their customers and their third party developers.

I doubt that story has changed much.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#169
post #7

I think this was inevitable given the insane YoY performance increase we've seen from A-series chips. Anyone want to chime in on why Intel can't get more than 5% YoY while Apple has been getting 30-40%?

Single threaded CPU performance improvements are pretty much tapped out at this point. Process improvements have slowed to a glacial crawl (compared to the past), clockspeed can't really increase much while maintaining the ability to be air cooled, and IPC is mostly mined out. Intel probably has the best processor cache in the industry, and adding more just isn't yielding much for general purpose applications (can't really speak about multi-tenant environments or other specialized applications).

I'd guess, but I don't know, that Apple's performance growth is coming from two places:

1. More multi-threading. Moble chips in general have been getting more parallel over time. It's pretty easy to construct synthetic benchmarks that benefit from this; it's less easy for general purpose applications, although they are coming along.

2. The GPU is improving. It seems like there is a lot of headroom here to improve. Apple's GPU is almost certainly substantially better than Intel's. This isn't really a huge problem for Intel, because for people who care, they can always get a discrete GPU. Super powerful GPUs can be very impactful for certain applications, but they just don't have general applicability.

In general, I'm pretty skeptical that Apple's CPUs are improving in the necessary areas to enable them to switch their pro lines. Moving over their Air and Macbook products to in house chips seems pretty straight forward.

Re: Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel

#170

This is such an obvious move, that I predicted it 2 years ago: https://medium.com/@Jernfrost/in-3-years-apple-will-switch-f... My prediction in 2016, was that Apple would switch to ARM based laptops in 2019, so it looks like I am off by just 1 year. A quick summary of my argument back then was that ARM was getting fast ENOUGH, but are considerably cheaper. Standardizing on one CPU architecture for all their products…

What if it turns out not to be based on the ARM architecture?

If they are not sticking with x86, it basically has to be ARM. Producing a new CPU architecture is very costly endeavor and other CPUs exist. However because they already have experience making chips for iPhone and friends and ARM is at least "good enough", it makes sense for them to go all in with ARM.
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