"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…
Let's play with statistics: Scenario 1: 100 human drivers drive some distance. 2 bad drivers caused 150 accidents and both died in their last fatal accidents. Scenario 2: 100 self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars drive the same road for the same distance. Everyone has one accident and one of them is fatal. Statistical numbers: Self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars cut both the accident rate and death rate by half. Death…
Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
261–270 of 348 posts
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
But does "autopilot on" mean that "autopilot has exclusive control and driver inputs are ignored"?
No, of course driver inputs will not be ignored. They will override the autopilot. But none were given. From the blog: >In the moments before the collision, which occurred at 9:27 a.m. on Friday, March 23rd, Autopilot was engaged with the adaptive cruise control follow-distance set to minimum. The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning earlier in the drive and the driver’s hands were not…
So, clearly, the AP is not capable of avoiding such obstacles yet, even when unobstructed. It also seems like a mistake to not slow down to a survivable speed when hands are off...
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#263Am I the only one that finds it odd that a human also ran into the same barrier within 24 hours of the crash? Perhaps Caltrans is partially to blame. (Full disclosure: Their incompetence almost killed me a few times back in my I-880 commuting days)
Source? ABC7 says the previous crash was 11 days ago (DUI...), the barrier just wasn't fixed immediately.
http://abc7news.com/automotive/exclusive-i-team-investigates...
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#264"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…
Let's play with statistics: Scenario 1: 100 human drivers drive some distance. 2 bad drivers caused 150 accidents and both died in their last fatal accidents. Scenario 2: 100 self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars drive the same road for the same distance. Everyone has one accident and one of them is fatal. Statistical numbers: Self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars cut both the accident rate and death rate by half. Death…
"Tesla also posted these photos that raise another important question: they show what's called a "crash attenuator" or safety barrier in the proper condition ... and the way it was the day before Walter Huang's crash ... collapsed after a different accident."
Did you see any news coverage of the previous accident? I know I didn't.
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#265"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…
Let's play with statistics: Scenario 1: 100 human drivers drive some distance. 2 bad drivers caused 150 accidents and both died in their last fatal accidents. Scenario 2: 100 self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars drive the same road for the same distance. Everyone has one accident and one of them is fatal. Statistical numbers: Self-driving/autopilot-enabled cars cut both the accident rate and death rate by half. Death…
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you think that humans are not just even more accurate versions of the same types of classifiers?
because we invented cars. And a few other things.
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#267My opinion: EVs, self-driving or directed, need an ejection mechanism for their batteries. Petrol has the advantage that it may ignite, where batteries are almost guaranteed to when damaged. Ideally, it would be an active system (launching the batteries no more than a meter away) - but that could fail under the conditions which caused the damage to the batteries. An alternative would be a passive system made of mater…
So your system would throw a burning pile of lithium into the woods to start a forest fire, into oncoming traffic to cause another crash, into a pedestrian on the sidewalk, etc?
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#268SW/HW Bugs happen - fact of life. More concerning is that Tesla denying this was ever reported to them... I had my driver side view mirror stuck issue fixed and they put in the notes that they re-filled all my tires during repair service allegedly as reqd. by some CA law. Later that week I got an alert that my tire pressure was low and had to get it air pumped so obviously they didn't do that despite having claimed t…
> More concerning is that Tesla denying this was ever reported to them. This is how Tesla reacts to all bad publicity. Bad review on battery life comes out? Data dump indicating the reviewer might've done something wrong. Accident? Statistical dump showing that most cars don't do this. I like this technique more than generic "we can't comment" responses, but I'm pretty confident they heavily cherry pick, looking for…
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#269I really don't like autopilot. It's good enough to make drivers trust it and not pay attention, but it's not good enough to not kill people when they do that. And when there's an accident Telsa come out and say "the system warned the driver to put their hands on the wheel" or something similar. Unless a car can 100% self drive drivers aids should require the driver to have hands on the wheel and be paying active atte…
Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your numbers about error percentiles don't make sense. Ideally, you'd want an outcome measure like fatalities per million miles, accidents per 100k miles, not "% error" which is vague. Furthermore, look at the actual data we have right now. SDC makers actually put out data in California about their "disengagement rate" which is how many time the human drivers took over from the software. Waymo have steadily increased…
That's, actually pretty damn terrible. 1 disengage per 5.5k miles is roughly 1 accident per 5.5k miles if the driver is not paying attention. Look at the Uber accident cam video pointed at the driver. This is the attention levels of drivers in so-called "self-driving cars."