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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

291–300 of 373 posts

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the boat. What boat? Are people going to stop buying cars in 2 years? We aren't talking about cellphones here, 2 years, or even 5 years is nothing in the automotive industry. The current 3-series is 6 years old and a good 3-4 years behind competitors and is still selling strong. Having a 2-3 years lead in this industry is literally less than half the lifecycle o…

The boat that has all the $100k sales on it from people that don’t want to wait 2-3 years for a BMW. That boat. It’s red row boat in case you’re curious.

And then in 5 years when it's time for them to buy a new car and they're sick of the cheap plasticky interior of the Tesla, BMW will be there ready for them.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#292
post #104

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents. If self-driving are indeed coming soon, dropping the cost of transportation, then we might need less cars than we currently use (or not use as they are parked 95% of time, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time... ). So maybe…

> It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents

This seems to be a myth, at least in the US https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/millennia... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/millennials-like-buying-cars...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#293
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re way oversimplifying the situation. BMW isn’t anything like Microsoft. It’s important to remember that, if you count hybrids, BMW already sells more electrified cars than Tesla and the vast majority of them at a more affordable price point than Tesla (the i3 is a pretty good value). BMW sells a ton of cars and has made pretty good progress on the electric front. They’re just not a hype machine like Tesl…

I don't think the situation isn't being oversimplified, I think OP's post is a good summary of the whole situation. I also don't think the i3 is good value. If you compare it to a BWM series 1, you can get a better car for a better price. On the other hand, a Tesla Model 3 is perfectably comparable to a BWM series 1. Tesla has been making good electric cars since 2012 and the BMW i3 was very limited in range until la…

Model 3 was designed to go head-to-head with 3 Series.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#294

Tesla shareholders are effectively funding R&D for BMW/Honda/Toyota/GM/Ford etc.

Toyota's Hybrid Synergy drive was patented in 1969, and in use 6 years before Tesla was founded. (10 years before Musk was on the scene.)

The drive is available in numerous models, including plug-in hybrids. These cars only perform better with more batteries added. Over the long term, it's interesting to ponder removing the ICE entirely and put a battery pack in its place.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#295

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

2020 is very soon. In car terms, it's "tomorrow."

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always find at least one completely unrelated comparisons or story in HN threads. I also hate the sorting of comments on HN. Is there a way to change it by hot/top like on Reddit? So often the first comment is completely off-topic/with examples in GP and turns into a thread of few more unrelated comparisons and anecdotes. BMW and Microsoft are in way different situations. State of electric cars right now (mainstrea…

Not arguing with the comment ranking. ;-) However, I don't think electric cars are "mainstream", outside of a small slice of people, which probably overlaps pretty well with HN. ;) They have great mindshare thanks to Tesla's marketing (and because they're pretty damn good cars), but they're a blip in terms of overall car sales volume unless you filter by really high end sedans and SUVs.

In Norway 40% of the sold cars are plug-in electric.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#297

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

2020 is very soon. In car terms, it's "tomorrow."

this... it's less than 24 months

for every big, international, well run company this is basically like saying it's next year...

when i worked on marketing for target... they kicked off planning for their 2-day sale 18 months in advance... not sure it was smart, but they did it...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#298

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

2020 is very soon. In car terms, it's "tomorrow."

It also neatly coincides with 2021, which is when car manufacturers have to reduce their fleet consumption to 95g CO2/km in the EU; a reduction of about 20-30% that will be very hard to achieve given that they all try to sell more and more SUVs. In China hard quotas for electric cars will be introduced around that time too, I believe.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#299
post #227
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are both having trouble scaling up different parts of the production line. So far, it seems that Tesla has been focussing quite a lot on getting great at producing batteries, including the logistics for that. Which is what they seem to be good at (given that they produce industrial size battery stations and batteries for home use as well). But they do not have as much experience in managing a mass produc…

I don't quite see lithium battery tech to be a market dominating advantage. Case in point - despite branding Gigafactory is at least in part a Panasonic operation. Don't believe me? See panasonic annual report: https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/panasonic_... Largest lithium battery supplier in the world? Panasonic. https://www.statista.com/statistics/235323/lithium-batteries... BMW doesn't need experi…

Panasonic owns a small part. There's over 300 Tesla employees at the factory vs ~50 Panasonic, and Tesla owns the building and the land. Panasonic leases part of the building and owns some of the equipment.

If BMW is buying from the manufacturer, there's a high chance Tesla will be one of them.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BMW is in a pickle because there is a good chance their premium pricing advantage is going to up and disappear with the shift to electrics. BMW has a customer base that loves their esthetics and brando and ignores the very high cost of ownership. Shift to electric and the esthetic and brando go out the window. See Harley Davidson.

Ugh, Harley Davidson is a company that sells awful, antiquated products at jacked up prices. Say what you want about how much BMW charges, they make very technologically advanced cars and charge accordingly. Their major fault is they tend to use very very expensive parts and overengineer everything to a fault. This tends to make them less reliable and very expensive to repair. Case in point, the very popular and well…

Only problem with BMW is any men I’ve ever seen riding one, looks like a fucking moron with tight pants and colorful sweater. Bunch of Fucking homos.
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