BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#151

Post by philwelch » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:44 PM UTC

kjksf wrote: post #120

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I'm not saying there was conspiracy but there was complacency. The reasoning "batteries are expensive" is circular. As Musk said, technology doesn't advance as a function of time but as a function of R&D investment. See atomic bomb or space race for the most dramatic example of how throwing money at the problem compressed the timeline. Car batteries did not get cheaper because 2 years passed but because Tesla and Pan…

> As Musk said, technology doesn't advance as a function of time but as a function of R&D investment.

Sometimes. Technology is very path-dependent; to invent z, you need to have invented w, x, and y first. And even with infinite resources that takes time. We’ve been working on fusion for half a century and it might be ready in another half century. Will more investment help? Yeah, but tokamaks take time to build, and you don’t know how to build the next tokamak until after you’ve done all your experiments with the current one. You can’t have iPhones in 1986 no matter how much money you throw at it because the underlying processor and battery tech isn’t there.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#152

Post by MrBuddyCasino » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:44 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #112

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

What is the cost of a transmission and a fuel tank and exhaust system? Maybe $5000? With LGChem's pricing of $150/kWh, that'll buy you a battery bigger than the Leaf's.

Good point. Lets see: transmission, clutch, ignition, catalyst, exhaust, radiator, fuel tank, oil tank, possibly urea tank, ICE engine. Thats worth something.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#153

Post by NotSammyHagar » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:50 PM UTC

gizmo385 wrote: post #134

Robotbeat wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

I think the issue is that it's $7500 in one transaction if a battery goes bad, versus the cost of fuel which is spread out over the lifetime of the car.

Yes, but batteries come with long warranties. model s 100k 8 years.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#154

Post by NotSammyHagar » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:50 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #18

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

because dealers don't want to sell evs very much because they have less maintenance, they are basically reducing their future revenue for every ev they sell.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#155

Post by dangrossman » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:53 PM UTC

ebbv wrote: post #149

dangrossman wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nissan Leaf, with a 68% smaller battery than a Tesla, cost more to build than its selling price until 2015 (5 years into production and 7 years after breaking ground on the battery factory) according to Nissan's CEO. GM only made about 25,000 Chevy Bolts last year and lost money doing it. If anything, they're both perfect examples of what I said. Nissan had to start building a supply chain for the Nissan Leaf in…

> The Nissan Leaf, with a 68% smaller battery than a Tesla Dude, that figure is kinda bogus. You can't just cite a random number like that. The first Leafs had a 20 Kw battery which is pretty close to your figure compared to a base 60 KWh Tesla Model S. But that was only the very first years, they went up to 24 KWh then 30 KWh and the current Leaf is 40 KWh. They're still smaller than the base Tesla battery, but they…

> Lots of stuff about rolling the R&D/factories into "losing money"

Actually that's not the case. This was the quote from Nissan's CEO about the Leaf turning a profit:

"We are getting there. Are we amortizing and depreciating everything we have spent? No. But if you look at margin of profit — the direct cost of the car and the revenue of the car — we are getting into positive, which is good for this technology."

So he's talking about reaching positive gross margins on each car, not the point when they fully cover the development costs.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#156

Post by devy » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:55 PM UTC

FWIW, according to an inside EV journalist friend of mine, Harald Krüger's comment is a reference for Samsung high density cells 2019 availability for a doable price that delivers 200+ miles range. [1]

[1] https://insideevs.com/samsung-sdi-from-130-whkg-to-250-whkg-...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#157

Post by majormajor » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:56 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #147

sschueller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

As a BMW owner, I don't have a desire to own an electric BMW. The magic of what Tesla's doing is the cool tech that makes one lust after one of their cars in ways you don't lust after other 'boring' sedans. (of course, you might still lust after a gas sports car!) The secret sauce is the community, the supercharger network, the ability to seamlessly plan a trip with every charge stop pre-populated and supercharger av…

> As a BMW owner, I don't have a desire to own an electric BMW. The magic of what Tesla's doing is the cool tech that makes one lust after one of their cars in ways you don't lust after other 'boring' sedans.

The biggest issue with BMWs is overcomplicated electronics and software leading to bugs or eventual weird glitches. I stopped buying them because of this, and IMO the Teslas looks even worse. I see a lot of used cars in my future.

As to the network stuff, and charger availability on the screen: isn't that purely an early-adopter problem? Why wouldn't chargers be as prevalent as gas stations?

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#158

Post by Shivetya » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:57 PM UTC

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

it isn't just price

- they weigh a lot for the range them can provide - the recharge rates even on "superchargers" is not good - the range loss in cold climates is very high, can be a third of your range - charger standards are not aligned

I hope we solid state batteries can solve all of these, if not the weight component by removing the liquid electrolytes. Is there really much more that can be done with lithium batteries?

I am still a fan of smaller EV range backed by a REX; how that REX is done going forward is up to technology but I don't really want to have to haul a thousand pounds of batteries around just to exceed two hundred mile range in mild to warm weather

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#159

Post by sweden » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 9:00 PM UTC

kickopotomus wrote: post #74

sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

Tesla had to raise a lot of money from investors to keep the business afloat. In 2017 alone, they had to raise a debt of $2bn to keep their cash reserves alive so that they could continue investing on their products. Volkswagen, on the other hand, had a revenue of $230bn in 2017 alone.

It doesn't seem to me that money is a problem for the already established car manufacturers. And looking at Tesla's finances, starting an electric car business wouldn't make much of a dent on Volkswagen's finances.

So yes, Tesla is proof that there is some relutance in moving to a fully electric business in the car industry.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#160

Post by Gibbon1 » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 9:01 PM UTC

ecpottinger wrote: post #60

kazen44 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is usually the case. Retooling an assembly line is a ton of work, and NOT producing at scale is impossible for modern, highly automated car factories like VW, Mercedes or BMW own. Producing 100 cars is simply not possible in these factories, because it would mean massive losses to the factory owner. Also, car manufacturers do not want one supplier for a part, they want several. Mostly as a backup and also to mak…

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me. I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line. I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf. Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they…

BMW is in a pickle because there is a good chance their premium pricing advantage is going to up and disappear with the shift to electrics. BMW has a customer base that loves their esthetics and brando and ignores the very high cost of ownership. Shift to electric and the esthetic and brando go out the window.

See Harley Davidson.