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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#221

Post by kokx »

Havoc wrote: post #197
erikpukinskis wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hype aside, we can say for certain that Tesla is _trying_ to ramp to five figure weekly production. The evidence we’ve seen is the Gigafactory, and Tesla’s official (legally binding) production plans. I haven’t seen any evidence that BMW or anyone other than perhaps Nissan, is currently trying to ramp production to 10k weekly. It’s not that I don’t think any of these cars are serious about the ramp—surely at least on…

>Tesla is _trying_ to ramp to five figure weekly production. For context BMW produces 40k cars a week in total vs the 2k of Tesla. So when BMW says "not profitable enough to scale up for volume production" - they probably know what they're talking about. Sure it's 40k old fashioned petrols, but they seem pretty knowledgeable about scaling.

I think they are both having trouble scaling up different parts of the production line.

So far, it seems that Tesla has been focussing quite a lot on getting great at producing batteries, including the logistics for that. Which is what they seem to be good at (given that they produce industrial size battery stations and batteries for home use as well). But they do not have as much experience in managing a mass production line for cars.

BMW on the other hand has a lot of experience in mass producing cars, but they do not have as much experience for batteries. The hardest bottleneck for BMW might just be getting the batteries themselves. Tesla has worked hard on that by building their Gigafactory for example.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#222

Post by toyg »

ggg9990 wrote: post #198
petra wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft may have been able to use the threat of book piracy to push publisher to it's system, in the same way Apple did with the iPod and MP3 piracy.

Apple was able to do that because MP3 piracy was already rampant. e-book piracy was not.

Ebook piracy has always been rampant (and still is), ereaders just introduced slightly better formats than pdf.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#223

Post by djrogers »

davewritescode wrote: post #176
reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

I think you’re way oversimplifying the situation. BMW isn’t anything like Microsoft. It’s important to remember that, if you count hybrids, BMW already sells more electrified cars than Tesla and the vast majority of them at a more affordable price point than Tesla (the i3 is a pretty good value). BMW sells a ton of cars and has made pretty good progress on the electric front. They’re just not a hype machine like Tesl…

> if you count hybrids

With the imminent 48volt revolution in ICE cars, any vehicle can be a hybrid with next to no engineering at all.

The leap from electrified to electric is huge, so comparing the two is kinda silly.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#224

Post by ilovecars2 »

Robotbeat wrote: post #172
HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A car being totalled is covered by insurance. A car whose engine blows up outside the warranty period is covered by its owner's paycheck.

But as noted by another user, batteries come with long warranties. (100k miles, sometimes)

Do those come strict conditions though? For example: don’t launch the car, don’t use ludicrous mode more than X times over the lifetime of the drivetrain, etc.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#225

Post by ilovecars2 »

Robotbeat wrote: post #90
mulmen wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not been my (limited) experience with Tesla. They build all the components in the car. Things like electric seats and door actuators seem to fail frequently. A Tesla still has a lot of parts to go wrong, even if the drive train is simpler and more robust. Most new ICE cars don't have massive power train problems either. The reliability issues are in auxiliary systems.

But the person you're replying to said "electric cars" not "Teslas." The non-powertrain components are irrelevant for this comparison. As far as ICE powertrains being fairly reliable, that is a triumph of engineering and due to literally trillions of dollars of investments. And yet regular maintenance on the powertrain is required even today, whereas electric powertrains do not have such requirements.

Is there no maintenance requirements on electric power trains at all?

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#226

Post by ilovecars2 »

dangrossman wrote: post #138
lttlrck wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does it eliminate dealer service revenue? If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE. It'll be electromechanical (mirrors, seats, windows, locks), electrical (heating, cooling), mechanical (suspension bushes, axle boots, springs) and the biggest wear items brake and tires also remain...

The Chevy Bolt's service schedule starts with a coolant flush at 150,000 miles. I've been driving two Nissan Leafs for 4 years (a 2012 then a 2018) that have not seen a dealer since I purchased them. The brake pads are good for the life of the car; you have to purposely slam the brakes every few months just to avoid them sticking and rusting from disuse. Well-made EVs generate virtually no revenue for dealer service…

I’d be a little cautious about going 150,000 miles without changing brake fluid. It does break down due over time and of course due to heating and cooling which can lead to sudden brake failure. Brake lines are also made of rubber in all but performance cars and can deteriorate/degrade independent of the fluid.

In an EV it’s possible this could happen when needed most as the brakes are used much less frequent than an ICE car.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#227

Post by Havoc »

kokx wrote: post #221
Havoc wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla is _trying_ to ramp to five figure weekly production. For context BMW produces 40k cars a week in total vs the 2k of Tesla. So when BMW says "not profitable enough to scale up for volume production" - they probably know what they're talking about. Sure it's 40k old fashioned petrols, but they seem pretty knowledgeable about scaling.

I think they are both having trouble scaling up different parts of the production line. So far, it seems that Tesla has been focussing quite a lot on getting great at producing batteries, including the logistics for that. Which is what they seem to be good at (given that they produce industrial size battery stations and batteries for home use as well). But they do not have as much experience in managing a mass produc…

I don't quite see lithium battery tech to be a market dominating advantage.

Case in point - despite branding Gigafactory is at least in part a Panasonic operation. Don't believe me? See panasonic annual report:

https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/panasonic_...

Largest lithium battery supplier in the world? Panasonic.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/235323/lithium-batteries...

BMW doesn't need experience in batteries - they'll buy them from a battery manufacturer.

The real difference here is that BMW can afford a wait and see approach for another year or so. Tesla is all-in committed right now & it has to work out asap since they're making huge losses. For each dollar in sales they're incurring 1.3 in costs. Which brings us back full circle to BMW's comment:

>"not profitable enough to scale up for volume production"

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#228

Post by KaoruAoiShiho »

reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

Bad example, Surface >>>> Kindle. Putting windows on their tablet is absolutely the right decision. Missing out on the tiny ebook reading market is pretty irrelevant for MS.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#229

Post by davewritescode »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #160
ecpottinger wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me. I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line. I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf. Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they…

BMW is in a pickle because there is a good chance their premium pricing advantage is going to up and disappear with the shift to electrics. BMW has a customer base that loves their esthetics and brando and ignores the very high cost of ownership. Shift to electric and the esthetic and brando go out the window. See Harley Davidson.

Ugh, Harley Davidson is a company that sells awful, antiquated products at jacked up prices.

Say what you want about how much BMW charges, they make very technologically advanced cars and charge accordingly.

Their major fault is they tend to use very very expensive parts and overengineer everything to a fault. This tends to make them less reliable and very expensive to repair.

Case in point, the very popular and well loved BMW N54 engine used 6 piezo fuel injectors to move massive amounts of fuel. Each injector costs almost $300 at an online parts store. For comparison, a Honda Civic injector generally costs 1/5th the price.

https://www.turnermotorsport.com/p-207715-13538648937-genuin...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#230

Post by downandout »

To be fair to BMW, and I’m not being facetious here, Tesla production isn’t economically viable either - and they’re probably further ahead than anyone. They lost $2.24 billion in 2017, with no end to the losses in sight. BMW is just being smart.
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