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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#101

Post by Robotbeat »

lumberjack wrote: post #55
sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

If someone fails to do something, that proves nothing. Can't prove a negative like that.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#102

Post by ebbv »

Baloney. I've been driving my Nissan Leaf for almost 4 years. Nissan has sold 300k Leafs. The Chevy Bolt is doing great. The Tesla Model 3 has a multi-year long waitlist.

BMW and some other manufacturers are being slow to adopt EVs because they aren't as profitable right now. So they'd rather keep milking the ICE cash cow as long as they can.

They also know that if they seriously offered competitive EV alternatives, people would buy them.

Why offer an EV version of a 3-Series with a smaller profit margin than an ICE model with a bigger one until they absolutely have to?

That's what it comes down to. The good news is they don't have a lot of time left to keep this b.s. up, but don't believe their lies about EVs. They are here, you can buy them, they are great.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#103

Post by mikestew »

vesrah wrote: post #80
mulmen wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience with BMW dealerships is that they are borderline criminal organizations. I have never taken my car in for a repair without them breaking something else. I was quoted $15,000.00 for a new head because they failed to gap a spark plug. They remove the access panel in the aero pan when doing oil changes and don't replace it. They over torque everything (drain plug, filter cover, etc). They broke a wiring ha…

What modern BMW uses plugs that aren't pregapped?

EDIT: never mind, as later details indicate, the dealer mechanics should not be allowed anywhere near a car because they bent the electrode, then said the car needed a new head because it wasn't firing on that cylinder. You know that dev at your work for whom getting it simply compile is a major victory? Yeah, BMW dealers apparently have the mechanic version of that.

-- I had the same thought. I haven't changed the gap on a spark plug in decades. Oh, I check them before they go in, but they're always spot on.

My only theory is that the dealer failed to torque the plug, and engine compression blew the plug out of the head, taking the threads with it. Because at the very worst, if the plug gap is way too big, the electrode might touch the top of the piston. Even then, the piston would just mash it down. I cannot think of a way to ruin a head by improperly gapping a spark plug.

But I digress way away from parent's original point...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#104

Post by llsf »

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents. If self-driving are indeed coming soon, dropping the cost of transportation, then we might need less cars than we currently use (or not use as they are parked 95% of time, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time...). So maybe a production of few million electric cars a year might be sufficient in 2020 ? It is 2 years from now, and with Tesla pushing, and giving the pace, the landscape could be very different from today. BMW might need to reassess their prediction then.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#105

Post by [deleted] »

mikestew wrote: post #103
vesrah wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What modern BMW uses plugs that aren't pregapped?

EDIT: never mind, as later details indicate, the dealer mechanics should not be allowed anywhere near a car because they bent the electrode, then said the car needed a new head because it wasn't firing on that cylinder. You know that dev at your work for whom getting it simply compile is a major victory? Yeah, BMW dealers apparently have the mechanic version of that. -- I had the same thought. I haven't changed the g…

[deleted]

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#106

Post by Robotbeat »

skybrian wrote: post #100

Folks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs.

It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#107

Post by adrianN »

mulmen wrote: post #82
detaro wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Does VW already know how to make electric vehicles? How many would they sell relative to their total sales of existing ICE vans? Is it worth starting up an entire new business for one customer? I think this can be explained by VW just deciding its not worth it rather than saying VW is trying to suppress electric vehicle development.

If you want to get serious about developing EV technology, why not start with a big customer that has a use case that makes the problem a lot easier?

Also, small vans for use inside cities is a big market. All delivery services need them, all kinds of workmen need them. With bans for Diesel cars in German cities on the horizon all kinds of businesses are complaining because Diesels are the only offering in that category.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#108

Post by mtgx »

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

The two are not exclusive. The batteries have indeed cost too much until 2015 or so, which is still 5 years earlier compared to the 2020 target BMW is giving.

However, it's undeniable that the carmakers weren't in a hurry to build EVs because EVs would be too much of a disruption to their businesses. Maybe a linear 0.5% growth per year? Yeah, they could deal with that. But they'd hate it if the EV market explodes to 10% in 2022 and 20% in 2025, and 50% in 2030.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#109

Post by adrianN »

llsf wrote: post #104
dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents. If self-driving are indeed coming soon, dropping the cost of transportation, then we might need less cars than we currently use (or not use as they are parked 95% of time, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time... ). So maybe…

After 2020, western countries are probably not the biggest market for new cars.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#110

Post by adrianN »

kickopotomus wrote: post #74
sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

VW's profit in 2017 has been more than ten billion Euros. That kind of money could fund a lot R&D and retooling factories.
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