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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

51–60 of 373 posts

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#51

That's less than two years away. I don't know how long it normally takes to ramp up production for a new car model, but it doesn't seem too bad to me.

from anecdotal experience (my father actually designs and architectures car factory assembly lines for a living), it usually takes around 1 to 5 years, depending on the amount of work involved and what kind of car is produced.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#52
post #26
post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

How does it eliminate dealer service revenue? If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE. It'll be electromechanical (mirrors, seats, windows, locks), electrical (heating, cooling), mechanical (suspension bushes, axle boots, springs) and the biggest wear items brake and tires also remain...

> If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE.

This is very much correct. For the warranty period (after which the OEM doesn't care and the customer stops taking it to the dealer) most maintenance is suspension components and leaks.

This doesn't eliminate dealer service revenue. If anything it makes it better because you remove the entire class of time consuming but low paying warranty jobs.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#53
post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

My experience with BMW dealerships is that they are borderline criminal organizations. I have never taken my car in for a repair without them breaking something else.

I was quoted $15,000.00 for a new head because they failed to gap a spark plug.

They remove the access panel in the aero pan when doing oil changes and don't replace it. They over torque everything (drain plug, filter cover, etc).

They broke a wiring harness mount when doing routine maintenance. Just ripped it off instead of releasing the clips.

They scratch up the interior when pulling the steering column apart for airbag recalls.

They broke a headlight housing when replacing a light bulb.

They curbed my wheels and then told me it couldn't be them because "there are no curbs here". The service manager said this while standing on a curb.

These people are predators. The incentives are perverse and they do nothing but exploit their customers and the manufacturer.

My hope is that Tesla's approach will push the costs of these unnecessary repairs and shoddy workmanship up the chain where the parent company actually has an incentive to fix them.

At this point the only way I would consider buying a new BMW is if I was able to find an independent shop that can still do warranty work. Still searching for that.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#54

Great, more opportunity for Tesla to scale up and eat their lunch. Innovator's dilemma at work.

The problem is, tesla is not a car manfucturer. They make a tiny amount of cars compared to the masses that BMW, VW and the likes produce.

Also, tesla has an enourmous fault tolerance compared to these guys, not to mention they produce cars which are quite more complex.

You cannot afford to "patch up" cars if you are producing thousands a week, that would make you run out of money very quickly.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#55
post #45

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone can afford), and you realise that it is not possible.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

Could be that electric cars just require less maintenance.

That's not been my (limited) experience with Tesla. They build all the components in the car. Things like electric seats and door actuators seem to fail frequently. A Tesla still has a lot of parts to go wrong, even if the drive train is simpler and more robust.

Most new ICE cars don't have massive power train problems either. The reliability issues are in auxiliary systems.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#57
post #26
post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

How does it eliminate dealer service revenue? If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE. It'll be electromechanical (mirrors, seats, windows, locks), electrical (heating, cooling), mechanical (suspension bushes, axle boots, springs) and the biggest wear items brake and tires also remain...

Tires are definitely still a factor, but regenerative braking reduces the wear on the brakes quite significantly. You also don't have a lot of the "regular maintenance" items like oil changes, transmission fluid changes, coolant flushing, spark plugs, air intake filters, exhaust gas sensors and so on.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#58
post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

honestly I think that the current generation of gasoline-powered cars are the ugliest that have ever been made

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#59
post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

>This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Yeah sure. VW takes their ICE models and equips them with an electric motor and battery. The reason why it doesn't sell is that it costs more than 2 times as much as the ICE model and EVs have an extremely low range. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OczqMbWB63I These things are getting bette…

Teslas are not expensive considering the competition in its own price range.

The reason Tesla started with a luxury car is because they are a new company without the same resources and manufacturing experience as the already established car companies, so anything they built, it would be very expensive anyway.

There is really nothing preventing from the established car manufacturers from selling a cheap electric car, the reason they don't it's simply because their businesses is not geared towards selling non-ICE cars.

Electric cars are much more simpler than normal ICE cars. ICE cars are basically a bunch of controlled tiny explosions and those explosions need to be kept in check so there is a lot of nuances and engineering aspects that can simply be skipped on a electric car.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#60
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, especially since those companies really don't start with "we'll build a line that can assemble 100 cars a week and then work from there" like Tesla did - it's either a line that can assemble 10k cars/week, or nothing. And if the supply for whatever component isn't there yet to support that capacity, then it's not going to happen.

This is usually the case. Retooling an assembly line is a ton of work, and NOT producing at scale is impossible for modern, highly automated car factories like VW, Mercedes or BMW own. Producing 100 cars is simply not possible in these factories, because it would mean massive losses to the factory owner. Also, car manufacturers do not want one supplier for a part, they want several. Mostly as a backup and also to mak…

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me.

I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line.

I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line.

Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf.

Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they will lose customers not only to Tesla but also Porsche and Jaguar as well.

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