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NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

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Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#15
post #10
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A database that list all pundits' specific prediction and give them a rating based on if they succeeded or not?

The problem is that you have to take account how unlikely a given prediction would be in comming true - a person who predicts one in a million things but only gets it right one out of a thousand is still way better than somebody who predicts the results of coin-flips with 51% accuracy but in your system the latter would be ranked far higher.

Indeed,

You would have to give each prediction an "audacity factor", how unlikely it seems.

The system would work in fashion where a 50% accuracy rate and a 30% one would actually be considered the same accuracy. Either you get higher than a 50-60% rate OR you get some of your predictions rated as having a high audacity factor.

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#16
post #3

It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right). Like the iPad wh…

The Long Now Foundation put up longbets.org to encourage some kind of accountability for predictions.

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#17
post #5
post #3

It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right). Like the iPad wh…

A database that list all pundits' specific prediction and give them a rating based on if they succeeded or not?

I've seen such a website somewhere but can't find it. It was in relation to an apple prediction but there were plenty of others there too (inc political).

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#20

I love Netflix. But Apple is gaining on them. At some point I might switch, or just use both. I'll certainly never sign up for cable tv.

I think Apple's store has some great ideas, but I'm not going to pay for a "one time rental" type of service when Netflix is an "all you can eat" type of service.

I realize their "Instant" offering is still not as large as their DVD offering, but it's growing all the time. I currently have over 100 items in my "play it now" queue. I routinely switch items from my DVD queue to the "play it now" queue, so it appears that they are continually adding more content.

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