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NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

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Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#3
It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right).

Like the iPad which many pundits couldn't figure out, the consumers never wrote off Netflix and that's pretty much all that matters.

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#5
post #3

It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right). Like the iPad wh…

A database that list all pundits' specific prediction and give them a rating based on if they succeeded or not?

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#6
post #5
post #3

It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right). Like the iPad wh…

A database that list all pundits' specific prediction and give them a rating based on if they succeeded or not?

That could be a component. I can't put my finger on the other ones, and it was just a slapdash thought, but I'd just love a scorecard that maybe considered: predictive success, factual error rate/truthyness (e.g. do they make frequent bogus claims?, known biases and employer(s).

It's not really realistic to comprehensively log all of this, of course. But it sure would help me assessing the relative quality of some sources, especially now that sources for news are so varied and fragmented. I suppose in the past the reputation of a publication served some of this purpose (i.e. WSJ or NYTimes having stellar reputations).

I knew of a couple of databases for equity analyst performance like Starmine and Bulldog Research. So those do exist. Not sure if either are still around since I'm no longer in the finance space.

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#7
Netflix also has a company culture that tends to keep people motivated. They've identified that a great place to work isn't a place with perks, it's a place where you get to work on hard problems with great people.

And besides making users happy (which is important), at its heart, it's a technology company, and it shines through when they're able to leap from platform to platform to deliver the movies.

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#9
The killer app in this space is studio catalog - that's the competitive advantage.

Distribution for NFLX is strong - but given the move for most new hardware devices to include "Apps" integration, distribution is going to be a waning advantage.

It's going to be an interesting battle, for instance what does the paperwork look like in Netflix' studio agreements - can they sell to Apple?

Re: NetFlix: America's Most Underestimated Company

#10
post #5
post #3

It's too bad there's no way to assign a universal "reputation" score to the various pundits out there so that readers can better assess the value of their published predictions. Michael Pachter, for instance, has been wrong on a number of occasions (he predicted Sony would dominate the current console generation and Nintendo would languish and MSFT would be #2 -- at least he got the last part right). Like the iPad wh…

A database that list all pundits' specific prediction and give them a rating based on if they succeeded or not?

The problem is that you have to take account how unlikely a given prediction would be in comming true - a person who predicts one in a million things but only gets it right one out of a thousand is still way better than somebody who predicts the results of coin-flips with 51% accuracy but in your system the latter would be ranked far higher.
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