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Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

economist.com

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Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#61

Post by jjeaff »

bgee wrote: post #33
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is smaller than from Vietnam, Korea, India even Singapore [0]. To me China is only trying catching up its neighbors. BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" [1]. [0]: https://data.worldba…

See other articles cited in the parent comment regarding human rights abuses and censorship for reasons as to why any military increase in China is not good.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#62

Post by HumanDrivenDev »

adventured wrote: post #15
drharby wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If china invades taiwan in will be a sign that China believes US leadership to be weak, and the world would follow that lead depending on the us response. If they successfully coax a response, we hurt our economic ties, if they dont, they get facevalue gains and reduce us foreign credibility. Now that i think about it...im scared for taiwan

Nobody is going to start a global nuclear war over Taiwan. The country is far too close to mainland China for the US to perpetually stand-off China from taking the island in the case of war. It's futile almost no matter the strength gap between the US and China. China could have successfully taken Taiwan 15 years ago for the same reason, despite there being a huge military gap back then. There's no scenario where Chi…

There's no scenario where China doesn't get Taiwan, unfortunately for the people there.

People have been saying that for 69 years. I'm not saying it's a disturbing possibility, or that people shouldn't be preparing for it. But it's not as likely as you seem to think.

There's no comparison to the Crimea situation. Crimea was overwhelmingly pro-Russian, and had a strong independence streak (see: the sovereignty referendum of 1994). An amphibious invasion against a largely hostile population is an entirely different matter, and would not be pretty, even for a large power like China. There's also the small matter of the US navy and Air Force.

I also don't think the US (or Japan) are keen on moving the focus of Chinas expansion from Taiwan to the Senkakus, which is what would happen next.

There's a lot of factors at play, it's a larger issue than just comparing two mismatched militaries.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#63

Post by olympus »

arialeks wrote: post #25
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

It doesn't just disturb the US, but every country surrounding China that is dominated by the strongest power in the region. The weaker countries have no choice but to accept unfavorable trade deals, give up ocean territory away from what is the accepted as international convention, etc.

China is big. China being ran by a dictator becomes a big bully.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#64

Post by bgee »

adventured wrote: post #47
bgee wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is smaller than from Vietnam, Korea, India even Singapore [0]. To me China is only trying catching up its neighbors. BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" [1]. [0]: https://data.worldba…

The 1.9% figure you're quoting, is almost universally regarded to be an undercount, aka a lie. At best their actual military spending figures are very fuzzy. "The Chinese, for example, do not count their research-and-development expenditures, the considerable amount they pay for foreign military purchases, the huge subsidies for their defense industry (which is composed mostly of enterprises owned by the state), or t…

In the Foreign Policy article you are quoting: "Although China’s official 2012 defense budget is $106 billion, ...the Pentagon places China’s total military spending at somewhere between $120 and $180 billion."

So we take the number in the middle ($150 billion) and assume it's always a 50% undercut (extremely inaccurate estimate), this will put China's 2016 budget to 1.92%*1.5=2.88%, still lower than Singapore's.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#65

Post by bfred_it »

api wrote: post #17
ahtu123 wrote: post #11

I have a feeling 10 years from now Trump will be funny blip on the radar of how crazy the '10s were while Asia will be quite meaningfully transformed. I wish this was getting as much attention as BREAKING NEWS: Trump/staffer did something dumb. The (soon plausibly) richest and most populous country in the world will soon have a dictator. That's a bit scary.

It's part of the same larger pattern. The entire world seems to be moving toward totalitarianism to varying degrees. I have yet to encounter a really good explanation of why this trend is occurring across so many nations and cultures.

Hasn't that always been the case? Powerful people always wanted more power, throughout history. Now nuclear essentially makes it impossible to go to war with powerful countries, so we're stuck with bullies doing whatever they want. If the bullies are smart enough, they won't attack other powerful (i.e. nuclear) countries.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#66

Post by adventured »

simonh wrote: post #24
mistermann wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think in light of recent events I think we'd benefit from people educating themselves on the actual state of free trade with respect to China, China is far more protectionist than the US, but if we try to do something about it, it's considered to be starting a trade war.

When it comes to trade what matters is whether or not you meet your treaty obligations. It's a rules based process, where you agree the rules and have some arbitration process, e.g. through the WTO. On that basis, what matters is whether China is following the rules it, and everyone else, agreed to. If you think some one is cheating you arbitrate. We made a deal. Trump is intent on blatantly breaking the rules the US…

> what matters is whether China is following the rules it, and everyone else, agreed to

That's incorrect. China is failing, to an extraordinary degree, to comply with what it said that it would do in being allowed into the WTO. Namely, opening up their economy in terms of full and equal foreign access. At every step, they've refused to go forward with that. As it turns out, most likely, they were lying and buying time. Their goal is clearly to get large enough to not have to ever comply. They've been very obviously following Deng Xiaoping stated policy - 24 character strategy - of hiding their strength and biding their time.

North Korea used the same strategy to acquire its nuclear weapons. Lie, pretend you're going to do a thing, with no intention of doing the thing, buy time, get the nukes, then you no longer have to comply and or you've massively increased your bargaining position.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#68

Post by kolbe »

andrepd wrote: post #42
bigmanwalter wrote: post #9

I would rather more terms with Jinping than Trump.

There's not even a term of comparison between the two. If nothing else, Trump is an evil and stupid, Jinping is evil and smart.

And the US presidency isn't nearly as powerful as what will certainly become a Chinese autocracy.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#69

Post by telchar »

adventured wrote: post #36
dragonwriter wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it happens (during Xi's lifetime), it's going to set a particularly terrible precedent that will encourage Russia to do more of the same in eastern Europe. It may provide a distraction for further Russian expansion, but Russia clearly doesn't need any new foreign precedent to justify invading it's neighbors. > If China then decides Mongolia too is part of greater China, who can really stop that? Nobody. China…

> but Mongolia is much more likely to (with Russia as the opposing major power.) Russia gets expansion in Europe. China gets expansion in Asia. They agree to try to stay out of each others way. It certainly wouldn't be unusual, historically speaking, for very powerful authoritarian regimes to reach agreement on annexations of territory.

...or to break those agreements. I imagine the memory of Operation Barbarossa hasn't faded much in Russia. It's hard to imagine them trusting China to move their military into a buffer state without moving further.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#70

Post by kolbe »

arialeks wrote: post #25
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

>On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

Never underestimate the sheer waste and incompetence that the US Government is capable of achieving. My general model is that we get about ten cents in value for every dollar spent. So, all Russia needs to do is break even, and they would achieve close to military might of the US.

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