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Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

economist.com

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Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#41

Post by vondur »

arialeks wrote: post #25
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

Probably the whole nuclear aresnal thing.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#43

Post by bllguo »

adventured wrote: post #13
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Vietnam just had to expend a large amount of effort to placate and reassure China, so the US could dock an aircraft carrier in Danang. For a country as powerful and on the rise as China is, it's remarkable how insecure the CPC are about every little thing. It's an overwhelming indication of the fragility of their power and their own sense of security about their control.

this sounds like you're projecting something, honestly. I'd stray on the side of being wary of China, not dismissing them as "insecure" and "fragile." Just a dangerous mindset imo.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#45

Post by natecavanaugh »

ahtu123 wrote: post #11

I have a feeling 10 years from now Trump will be funny blip on the radar of how crazy the '10s were while Asia will be quite meaningfully transformed. I wish this was getting as much attention as BREAKING NEWS: Trump/staffer did something dumb. The (soon plausibly) richest and most populous country in the world will soon have a dictator. That's a bit scary.

Two things give me some hope. 1. I don't think totalitarianism lends itself to economic prosperity, long term. Sure, the right authoritarian can move much faster and implement beneficial changes much more quickly than a democratic government can. But that knife cuts both ways. 2. The entire government system in China, and it's culture, heavily values stability and collective unity (hence it's desire to squash and eliminate anything that may lead to extreme reaction or departure from consensus). But this will lead to calcification, or, if the dictator changes too much or is too heavy handed, instability is inevitable, which leads me to think that the dictator will be changed out.

Ultimately, I think that the power of any society is in the hands of the citizens, and that Chinese culture is extremely pragmatic. They may be able to be kept peaceful for a bit, but if progress starts stagnating or even reversing, changes will happen.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#46

Post by gdubs »

adventured wrote: post #29
gdubs wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like a World War has ever broken out over a 'trivial' incident. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Au...

What does that have to do with global nuclear war?

It has to do with global nuclear war because saying that one will not break out over 'x' ignores the fact that there's historical evidence for unimaginable carnage being triggered from seemingly minor events. Many scenarios put forward by military thinkers on what might trigger a nuclear war involve escalation – it's not limited to a country deciding to just fire off some rockets.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#47

Post by adventured »

bgee wrote: post #33
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is smaller than from Vietnam, Korea, India even Singapore [0]. To me China is only trying catching up its neighbors. BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" [1]. [0]: https://data.worldba…

The 1.9% figure you're quoting, is almost universally regarded to be an undercount, aka a lie. At best their actual military spending figures are very fuzzy.

"The Chinese, for example, do not count their research-and-development expenditures, the considerable amount they pay for foreign military purchases, the huge subsidies for their defense industry (which is composed mostly of enterprises owned by the state), or their spending on the Chinese coast guard despite many of their “maritime law enforcement” ships being in effect naval vessels"

https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/07/united-states-defense...

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hy-chinas-military-budge...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/23/5-things-the-pentagon-is...

https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#48

Post by freech »

jerf wrote: post #22
drharby wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If china invades taiwan in will be a sign that China believes US leadership to be weak, and the world would follow that lead depending on the us response. If they successfully coax a response, we hurt our economic ties, if they dont, they get facevalue gains and reduce us foreign credibility. Now that i think about it...im scared for taiwan

One of the strategies is to keep Taiwan itself armed. Civilians like us can't know this, but it has been hypothesized that one of the levers being used on China with regard to North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is explaining to them that if North Korea goes nuclear, they can expect Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and who knows who else to go nuclear, either via local development of the weaponry or via assisted…

> We'd probably know if they'd ever tested a weapon. We wouldn't necessarily know if they'd actually built one. If I were them, I totally would have.

What's the point of having nuclear weapons and not telling everyone? The entire point of nuclear weapons is to deter attacks.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#49

Post by ahtu123 »

mannykannot wrote: post #31
ahtu123 wrote: post #11

I have a feeling 10 years from now Trump will be funny blip on the radar of how crazy the '10s were while Asia will be quite meaningfully transformed. I wish this was getting as much attention as BREAKING NEWS: Trump/staffer did something dumb. The (soon plausibly) richest and most populous country in the world will soon have a dictator. That's a bit scary.

While fussing over every misstep of the administration is a distraction, this is an unfortunate time to have a US President who seems uninterested in global politics.

For sure. Russia and China have their most keen global political leaders in a generation and the US is infighting.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#50

Post by castis »

freech wrote: post #48
jerf wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the strategies is to keep Taiwan itself armed. Civilians like us can't know this, but it has been hypothesized that one of the levers being used on China with regard to North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is explaining to them that if North Korea goes nuclear, they can expect Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and who knows who else to go nuclear, either via local development of the weaponry or via assisted…

> We'd probably know if they'd ever tested a weapon. We wouldn't necessarily know if they'd actually built one. If I were them, I totally would have. What's the point of having nuclear weapons and not telling everyone? The entire point of nuclear weapons is to deter attacks.

> The entire point of nuclear weapons is to deter attacks.

I thought the entire point was to kill as many birds as possible with a single stone.

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