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China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

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Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#101

Post by Slansitartop »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #71
ejlangev wrote: post #57

It's a shame we moved a lot of the US industrial base to an authoritarian and potentially hostile country like China. A bit scary to think of the generation or two of people who won't have the knowledge to manufacture things should they ever need to because of conflict in some form. Seems like it reduces any leverage the US has for holding China accountable for much that it does.

We need some investors to band up and recreate the hardware environment in Shenzhen. There would be a lot of money made that way too so not sure why there wouldn’t be one in Nevada or Arizona or something.

Yeah, I kinda wish that Apple, as a condition of repatriating its billions at a lower tax rate, had to spend that money standing up Shenzen-like infrastructure somewhere in the US to build its products.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#102

Post by leggomylibro »

dekhn wrote: post #69
leggomylibro wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, I'm not very steeped in the intricacies of Lord of the Rings. I got the feeling that it was the nature of their power and omniscience that corrupted most individuals who used them, sort of like the Ring, but that could be completely wrong.

That's completely wrong. The Palantiri were created by the Noldor (one of the powerful old races of elves) and used without corruption, and then given to the Numenoreans as a gift; they were used for a long time without corruption. They were so powerful that even Sauron could not make arbitrary images appear. But the weak-minded were easily influenced by him through it; not through the nature of the stones. The ring…

Oh.

Well, stuff happens; thanks.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#103

Post by sli »

rotskoff wrote: post #62
corysama wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never read Brave New World , but I've heard that was a theme. Everyone used illegal drugs, but there was no enforcement. Instead, if they wanted to bring you in, they just charged you with illegal drug use --because everyone knows that everyone uses illegal drugs.

Not quite... In Brave New World there is a drug called "soma" that is an opium for the masses; it's rationed by the government. The subplot around soma focuses more on trying to get people to not take it so that their minds can be freed.

That's also a major (and non-spoiler, if you're familiar with films at all) plot point of Equilibrium.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#104

Post by Fricken »

ejlangev wrote: post #57

It's a shame we moved a lot of the US industrial base to an authoritarian and potentially hostile country like China. A bit scary to think of the generation or two of people who won't have the knowledge to manufacture things should they ever need to because of conflict in some form. Seems like it reduces any leverage the US has for holding China accountable for much that it does.

What would holding China accountable entail, exactly?

"America doesn't like they way you do civilization. We don't like the way you brought 650 million people out of extreme poverty in a generation. If you have to use authoritarian tactics to do that, it's better that they stay poor and addicted to opium. You have to disband now."

"Oh, okay. Sorry America. We recognize the error of our ways. We will stop being China now."

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#105

Post by nerfhammer »

ejlangev wrote: post #57

It's a shame we moved a lot of the US industrial base to an authoritarian and potentially hostile country like China. A bit scary to think of the generation or two of people who won't have the knowledge to manufacture things should they ever need to because of conflict in some form. Seems like it reduces any leverage the US has for holding China accountable for much that it does.

Manufacturing output of the US hasn't decreased. China just eclipsed everyone: https://twitter.com/LegalKant/status/946904533183197185

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#106

Post by forapurpose »

threatofrain wrote: post #63
cdepman wrote: post #22

We’re on our way there too in the US: https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/27/17054740/palantir-predict...

Predictive policing is old, and has been done in consultation with universities before. There are papers on predicting crime vs criminals, predicting by time and address, predicting by age, etc., including discussion on whether this leads to uneven enforcement on minorities. It would be surprising to expect law enforcement to go towards less statistical and software usage. What would be new would be formal preemptive…

> Predictive policing is old ...

Agreed, but technology changes everything (otherwise, what are we all doing?). Transporting goods by boat is thousands of years old (or probably more), but modern shipping has a completely different impact than millennia of wooden wind- and human-powered boats.

Surveillance is old; modern data collection and analysis is a whole different animal.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#107

Post by IntronExon »

jstarfish wrote: post #61
IntronExon wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that assumes a government willing to literally go to war with its populace, and why I explicitly said a war would be required. I have no illusions about how that war would end of course... tanks and B-52’s reliably best handguns and rifles. The difference between a country drowning in guns and one without them is that in the latter case it’s just that much easier, a “lower barrier to entry” if you will.

> I have no illusions about how that war would end of course... tanks and B-52’s reliably best handguns and rifles. Plenty of US adversaries have met these odds and held their own. Aside from some targeted campaigns to eradicate individuals, we haven't truly "won" any notable military conflict since 1945. IEDs tend to level the playing field, but see how far you get trying to build or acquire those today. You'd be am…

All good points, and I think it reinforces the incredible cost associated with attempting to institute something as tyrannical as “pre-crime” detention in the US. It could be done, but only over a mountain of corpses and human misery. A government willing to do that, and sacrifice economic and social stability for generations is happily not one which resembles our government. That could change, but it would be a massive change, not some inevitable slog.

In China they’ve already crushed anything like resistance, disarmed their populace, and gone the full “re-education camp” route for a while.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#108

Post by adventured »

sjg007 wrote: post #88
drb91 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh come on, neoliberals aren’t much better. They’re two feet to the left of the right wingers when it comes to surveillance, policing, funding the military & pro-military nationalistic rhetoric, with industry hands in their pocket, and their own hands in the media. The seeds for fascism, authoritarianism, and cults of personality are well rooted in the senior offices of congress on both sides. It has been ripe for ab…

I think the issue is that Trump and the State department are not going to do anything about a strongman in China. Trump likes strongmen and hasn't doing anything to curb Duerte, Putin and now Xi in China.

Let's be realistic. China has an economy nearly three times the size of the #3 economy, Japan, at this point. They dominate dozens of aspects of global trade and commodities. They're a nuclear power, and clearly the world's #2 military (and persistently trying to close the gap with the US).

So, do what about Xi exactly? Nothing. There's absolutely nothing Trump or Obama could or would be able to do about Xi's power grab. Obama would have issued a PR about concerns of this or that, and it would have been meaningless in actuality (other than making a small number of people feel slightly better for a minute).

China has been authoritarian-heavy in one form or another for most of the last 300 years or so of modern history. Smacking them on the nose about it isn't going to accomplish much. It'll work about as well as it has with Russia over the prior century.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#109

Post by forapurpose »

drb91 wrote: post #78
srcmap wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone is taking fly training of commercial jet without wanting to learn how to land the plane, I absolutely want the government to find out why. Same for someone who want to purchase large quality of fertilizer for no real needs.

This is crazy. The government is not a wall between you and what scares you; that is what politicians want you to think. The wall is never high enough; it is never deep enough; there are never enough cameras; we need better people deciding what is OK to do on camera and what is not OK. This is all very fine to want, but it's an entirely different conception of government than the one described in the constitution. It…

> The government is not a wall between you and what scares you

While I'm sympathetic to your point, it can be taken too far. Government does provide security to its citizens, and it does that partly by gaining prior intelligence about suspicious activities. Some things should be investigated - if someone posted online about committing murder, in detail and with clear plans, I'd hope law enforcement would check it out.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#110

Post by drb91 »

forapurpose wrote: post #93
drb91 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, that may be true. I'm not sure what another state department might have done in this position against Xi, though; this is a continuation of politics that hardly offered Obama straightforward leverage either.

> I'm not sure what another state department might have done The US State Department, and the entire US government, has for generations made human rights central to US foreign policy. It's believed that people with freedom and opportunity become vibrant trade partners and allies, not enemies in war. Democracies don't start wars against other democracies, as an historical rule. That historic policy is widely believed…

This seems deeply, deeply idealistic to me--but ultimately this seems political, so I'll just say my point was that it's not clear what Obama could have done differently aside from save face and keep the state department staffed.
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