Earlier quoted context omitted.
Vote with your money, a.k.a. boycott. do not support any product/service that contribute to climate change. Aim for the level of life of a regular Indian citizen, or even better Bhutanese. Invest in insulation of your home, learn survivalist skills (how to make a fire, make a shelter, grow food, treat disease, make medicine, etc.) prepare for a scenario where you have to live a nomadic on the go for a while, join a g…
> "...learn survivalist skills (how to make a fire, make a shelter, grow food, treat disease, make medicine, etc.)" These used to just be "normal" skills that people knew...funny how things have changed.
What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
241–250 of 257 posts
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where exactly does this predict that new york would be under water by now ? The BBC article quotes: "In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040." and "A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that's what our models were telling us. But as we've seen, the models aren't fast enough right now; w…
If you want to just discuss rhetorics by all means here is one example of that claim. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/06/flashback-abc-news-w... Not sure what the point about whether new york or not. The general point was that there was alarmist claims as those I linked to in the previous post. I was responding in the same style of the claims about what the so-called "climate deniers" had claimed. I could ask th…
Until now I've only see unsubstantiated bold claims, cherry picked provided evidence actually not supporting them when read and various logical fallacies attempts to get out of providing data supporting your point (You waiting for someone else to support their point is not proving yours, appealing to authority by linking to 1hour video debate, etc.)
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is a positive feedback loop, more water vapor in the athmosphere double the CO2 greenhouse effect, and factoring in other feedback loops we get over 3 times more greenhouse effect, which warms the earth and increase water vapor in the athmosphere, etc. This process could lead to oceans boiling out (though not on Earth, but it may be the case for Venus).
If it could go either way, why are we so sure it is an unstable loop in one particular direction? Our world used to be much warmer than it is now, yet somehow it cooled down a whole lot. There are just not enough lines connecting all the dots here.
I was referring to the well defined cybernetics concept of feedback loop[1] which is simple: a feedback loop occurs when the output of a system applies to the input of the system.
In the discussed case it is a positive feedback loop as outputs adds itself to input [2].
I don't understand what you are trying to say by pointing out earth was warmer and cooled down, but you can read about positive and negative feedback loop during glacial period on wikipedia[3].
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feedback#/media/File:General_F...
[2]: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.energ...
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Positive_and_negative_...
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
Out of curiosity what makes you doubt human will go extinct. It is quite obvious that we are collectively failing to deal with climate change and that this could be the great filter according to the fermi paradox where humans disappear. Climate change sure has the potential to remove current condition favorable to human life on the planet as it has already happened in the past. https://twistedsifter.files.wordpress.c…
I think we're adaptable and numerous enough that a stable breeding population would survive somewhere. Maybe Elon Musk's descendants will stop trying to shoot things at Mars and instead build a self-contained mini-ecosystem here on Earth. Who knows? That's not to say it would be pleasant -- a rapid population reduction from 7 billion to under a million would not be pretty -- but extinction is hard.
Same with breathable air, how would humans adapt to an athmosphere composition without oxygen as happens when earth magnetic field is weaken during geomagnetic reversals ?
My point is we are facing an ongoing mass extinction event and based on current knowledge of previous events humans being wiped out is a possibility. Based on the number of species that are extinct, extinction is not that hard specially during a mass extinction event.
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like we keep discovering new positive feedback loops for global warming. Less ice means less reflection. Warmer arctic means more methane from permafrost. Desertification means less carbon capture. There was a recent article in Scientific American about likely changes in cloud formation from AGW. Some clouds reflect sun (cooling), while others trap heat (warming). Guess which are likely to increase? I doubt…
Define screwed. I’m not sure what I think about the “climate change” issue, but I maintain a reserve of skepticism towards proclamations of apocalyptic doom. A) Humans, and all living things, are screwed from the get go. A guaranteed calamity awaits us all. I think contributes to a lack of perspective that is not helpful, and possibley harmful. On a number of levels, personal and political. B) The fact that climate c…
I see it as inevitable.
It might now be voluntary but it will happen as eventually we will reach a point where choice will not be an option and it will be a direct consequences of the lack of cheap energy sources, lack of food, economic collapse, massive reduction in population and so on.
Doing it voluntary now would help dealing with the upcoming catastrophic events and not doing it means playing it the hard way. But eventually human production of greenhouse gases will be greatly reduced, probably to pre industrial levels.
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
A huge part of world's population lives on coastal cities. When cities like Mumbai and Dhaka will start to submerge, you can imagine the havoc that will cause. Also, some countries like maldives will completely submerge. I don't think europeans would be very happy about accepting these people, given the situation that has arisen from Middle eastern migration. A lot of wildlife requires specific environmental situatio…
Most of what you mention is actually a problem solving itself. One of the cause of man made climate change is overpopulation, with most of the human population being crammed into megacities of which many are coastal it means the overpopulation will probably fix itself with people living in big cities mass dying. Big and not that big cities do not produce enough food and water for themselves, density of population mea…
https://youtu.be/LJf5JjZjsGI have a look at this video, this region which suffered hailstorm destroying most crops, is supposed to be a somewhat dry region.
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you are downplaying it a bit here. The temperature is already well on its path of increasing several degrees. Economy will probably cease to exist. There will be no humanitarian crisis but simply people mass dying. The "conflicts" may be nukes or sticks and stones but there's also a possibility that there will be relatively few conflicts depending on the strength of the culture of selfish in the local area.
I honestly think you're overplaying it, instead. Whatever the scale of the changes, they will happen during decades, not years. "Economy cease to exist": what does it even mean? There was an economy during WWII, there was an economy during the worst of the middle ages...
I was referring to things like the Bundeswehr (German military) study that was leaked in 2010 in der spiegel which explored the probable future to better prepare themselves to face it. Here you'll find page 2 of the english version of the der spiegel article reporting on the partial to complete market failure and global chain reaction causing global economy collapse.
Fun thins is that this report places the collapse around 2025-2030 same as predicted by the world3 in the 1970's.
The other thing I was referring to is a report about the transition period which had a part about risk of violence and war in the event of a societal collapse (they actually evaluated the whole range from steady decline interspersed with rupture points to full civilization collapse), and among the possible scenarios without violence were the ones where the collapse happened fast enough. Sorry I don't have source readily available IIRC I found this report while documenting myself on post oil agriculture in the EU.
It is a common misconception to not understand that the upcoming change is unprecedented in human history, it will be nothing like what we have faced before. Expecting it to be something like past events would be a mistake.
[1]: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you want to just discuss rhetorics by all means here is one example of that claim. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/06/flashback-abc-news-w... Not sure what the point about whether new york or not. The general point was that there was alarmist claims as those I linked to in the previous post. I was responding in the same style of the claims about what the so-called "climate deniers" had claimed. I could ask th…
I don't want rhetorics, this is not a matter of winning an argument, I'd like to see your claim substianted to decide if they are valid and receivable. Until now I've only see unsubstantiated bold claims, cherry picked provided evidence actually not supporting them when read and various logical fallacies attempts to get out of providing data supporting your point (You waiting for someone else to support their point i…
I am not cherry picking anything. I giving examples as the only one in this thread btw. Go back and read the thread.
Where on earth am I appealing to authority? I link to a debate with two sides debating this very issue to prove a point which is that experts disagree about this which was one of my points. It's a proof of that. You on the other hand link to things and appeal to consensus, how is that useful for anything?
I literally gave you links not only to claims about New York being under water but other similar claims. The video is experts warning about the warming and the consequences being imminent.
So that critical thinking crash course you talked about, perhaps you should start by applying it to yourself.
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone in this debate could use a crash course in critical thinking, not the least people who claim to be certain about things not even the scientist who debate it actually are. Pointing to a bunch of links prove nothing which any debate between respected scientist will show you. Here is an excellent debate from 2007 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-28qNd6ass addressing all your points.
Providing links is not a question of proving anything but simply sourcing the claims I make so they can be verified and allow people to check them and make their own idea. A 1+ hour video debate without transcript is the worst possible thing. Not only it is a privacy nightmare because google but also a waste of time and energy. I'd rather read text than watch video because it is much faster, easier to understand and…
Here is one of the people from the first link you provided.
From Hansens "Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save the Planet"
The dangerous threshold of greenhouse gases is actually lower than what we told you a few years ago. Sorry about that mistake. It does not always work that way. Sometimes our estimates are off in the other direction, and the problem is not as bad as we thought. Not this time.
Then only to turn around later:
Stopping human-made climate change is inherently difficult, because of the nature of the climate system: it is massive, so it responds only slowly to forcings; and, unfortunately, the feedbacks in the climate system are predominately amplifying on time scales of decades-centuries.
The upshot is that there is already much more climate change “in the pipeline” without any further increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs). That does not mean the problem is unsolvable, but it does mean that we will need to decrease the amount of GHGs in the relatively near future.
The ponderous response of the climate system also means that we don’t need to instantaneously reduce GHG amounts. However, despite uncertainties about some climate processes, we know enough to say that the time scale on which we must begin to reduce atmospheric GHG amounts is measured in decades, not centuries. Given the fact that the fastest time scale to replace energy systems is decades, that means that we must get the political processes moving now. And that won’t happen until the public has understanding of what is actually needed and demands it.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/03/shock-the-father-of-g...
Just one example and I could give many others of the claims of catastrophes not living up to the scaremongering.
That is exactly what makes people like me skeptical. Hyped alarmist claims which then turn out to be not even close to true once you dig into it.
Everyone agrees that climate is changing also the "Catastrophe skeptics", everyone even agrees that humans have an effect, what they don't agree on is how much.
Try and find one source that tells you exactly how much humans affect or exactly the temperature. The links from the IPCC gives a wide range.
How do you know what you think about the climate is true?
Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is more nuanced than that. In any relatively short time span, we may see specific effects (higher temperatures for example) and we may see other effects (increase atmospheric CO2), but this doesn't mean that over a longer term we will continue to see these effects. The other aspect is that there are some very specific physics involved and I have yet to see any discussion over these specific effects. We have seen,…
When you take time to investigate the historical meteorological records you find out that almost all the highest temperature records since we started recording data are concentrated after 2010. If you have a basic scientific education you know that any example starting by "when I was a child" is anecdotal evidence and have very limited value because it is akin to confirmation bias and cherry picking. I'm curious as w…
The problem of confirmation bias and cherry picking is not a problem with "anecdotal evidence". Anecdotal evidence is an opportunity to further look into the events related to the evidence to see what its veracity is. I have been involved in various experimental activities and I have found that in some of those activities that the results obtained were deemed unacceptable because they did not match the expectation of the reviewers. Even when the experiments were repeated (under further supervision) and were similar to the original results, they were not accepted.
With regards to the 19th century data, this information was supplied by the National Bureau of Meteorology. Since these records were not recorded in a time of Political Correctness for climate change, I don't expect them to have been manipulated either way. So at face value and for a first approximation we can regards them as accurate.
You additional mechanisms are all involved in the energy transfers and requirements. What you forget is that to have the phase change from solid to liquid requires a set amount of energy given a set atmospheric pressure. Irrespective of how much calving occurs, we have to consider what is the accumulation rate of ice to the back end and the total amount of calving at the front end. In addition, the required calving on a daily basis still needs to be measured in the cubic kilometres or in the gigatonne range.
The problem with feedback loops in climate is that we do not know, we only think we know. With very simple systems, we can and do get to a position of understanding the various feedback loops. With complex system, we do not. We often see unexpected results. Climate is a global phenomenon and is so complex that we will not understand it for the forseeable future. That does not mean we shouldn't try, but to rely on the current models as if they are "truth" is good way to end up in a blind alley with no way out.
I don't have a problem with cleaning up the environment and finding more efficient ways to run transport and waste handling, mining and manufacturing. But to take the position of climate change being mainly or only anthropogenic is foolishness at best and utter stupidity at worst.
We have no idea (that includes every climate scientists who pushes the anthropogenic climate change agenda) as to the real relationships being natural and anthropogenic causes for climate change.
If you were to put every one of those who believe such in the position of having to bet their life on it, how many would do so? I mean putting gun against the head and testing with that wonderfully reliable device called a polygraph and pulling the trigger if any doubt was shown at all. Since the polygraph is an unreliable piece of equipment, I don't think we would see too many takers, would you?
The above, I know, is a bit ridiculous, but think about it.